Cross posted from Future Majority.
Democracy Corps released a new Youth for the Win poll analysis today. As in previous surveys, youth engagement continues to increase and is now higher than ever, particularly among young African Americans and non-college youth:
A 70 percent majority of young people agree they are more involved in this election than in previous elections, up from 54 percent two months ago. Among Democrats, this number jumped from 63 percent to 75 percent. As dramatic as the rise among African Americans (from 59 percent to 77 percent). Nearly a third of young people say they plan on getting involved, urging people to vote on Election Day. No doubt, this is overstated, but it is an important indicator of young people’s commitment. It is also striking exactly who makes this commitment. The number is higher among community college students than four-year college students (33 percent and 27 percent, respectively). The number jumps to 41 percent among African Americans and 30 percent among Hispanic voters.
As the poll analysis goes on to state, it's no longer a question of whether or not young people will turnout in record numbers. They will. The question we all need to examine now is how far down the ballot will that engagement carry?
All told, 20 percent among young people who are likely voters say they will only vote for President and just 62 percent commit to finish the entire ballot. In the web sample, the problem grows worse. Less than half (47 percent) of minority voters interviewed on the web say they will finish the ballot. Among all young people of color, just 57 percent say they will complete the ballot.
In other words, 20 percent of the two most progressive voting blocks in the electorate may not participate in down ballot elections, dampening the size of the prospective Democratic wave in congressional and state legislative races.
So what can we do to lessen that gap and maximize youth turnout down ballot? Democracy Corps offers a few messages and strategies. First, a look at what young people are thinking about on the issues:
A 56 percent majority of young people are afraid for their country’s future. Just 34 percent are optimistic about their country’s future. Even more so than older voters, young people believe we are on the brink of financial collapse. By a 62 to 28 percent margin, young people argue "this financial crisis puts us on the edge of a crash like the Great Depression." A Democracy Corps battleground survey taken two weeks ago, just 44 percent of likely voters believed we were on the brink of a Great Depression.1 Not surprisingly, both big banks (20 percent positive, 39 percent negative) and Wall Street (24 percent positive, 38 percent negative) suffer some in the opinion of young people.
In particular it is younger, non-white youth who most need to be targeted with down-ballot campaigns:
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So what can a congressional or state legislative campaign do to increase down-ballot turnout among youth? Don't be cute or try to hard to be hip. Coopt the Obama "brand" and target them with serious messages addressing the importance of building a solid team to bring about real change in our government, from the top down.
In terms of messaging, groups committed to turn out young people need to keep in mind how serious young people are taking this election. Often times, get out the vote efforts aimed at attracting the attention of young people try to be to hip or proactive; these efforts can come off as patronizing in the best of times; in the worst of times, they are close to insulting. To state it plainly, young people believe the country is in crisis, particularly in terms of the economy. They are in a serious mood and are voting and participating in record numbers because they believe the country needs change.
Here are the two specific down-ballot messages that Democracy Corps found most resonated with young people:
- Barack Obama can't change Washington alone; he will need a team behind him to support his policies in Congress and the Senate to get anything done.
- This nation faces a crisis; we are fighting two wars, the economy is in shambles, and our financial institutions are melting down; now more than ever, the citizens of this country need to take on Washington and make our voices heard at all levels of government, not just president.
It's important to note that these were not necessarily partisan messages. Young people did not respond favorably to partisan appeals or attempts to coerce them into straight-party voting. These messages need to be serious, and appeal to a desire to come together and solve the nation's problems. Young people respond to pragmatism, not partisanship.
One final note - the DCorps poll analysis suggested that young people, in addition to rejecting straight-ticket voting, responded favorably to messages and campaigns that provide the maximum amount of information - links, voter guides, etc. - so that young people could make up their own minds before casting a ballot. Campaigns that provide such information, in conjunction with the types of messages listed above, should have the greatest success in getting out the youth vote in their down-ballot race.