In the winter of 2006, California's 50th District came to great prominence in the online community, as a bribery scandal surrounding former Rep. Randy "Duke" Cunningham led to Cunningham's retirement, imprisonment and a subsequent special election.
Despite considerable netroots attention, Democratic candidate Francine Busby narrowly lost in the special election to Republican Brian Bilbray, 49% to 45%, after the NRCC dumped over $5 million in the race. Bilbray had run as a hard-liner on immigration, and since his election he has compiled a slick conservative record, voting 93% of the time with President Bush.
If you remember that special election, and the frustration when Bilbray pulled off his four-point victory...well, a change may be in the air in San Diego.
Per a Democratic internal, Democratic candidate Nick Leibham (a prosecutor, former high school teacher and Capitol Hill staffer) is just two points behind Bilbray, and the momentum is strongly with the Democratic insurgent:
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner for Nick Leibham. 10/13-14. Likely voters. MoE 4.9% (4/24-27 numbers).
Bilbray (R) 44 (56)
Leibham (D) 42 (34)
That's quite a swing, and the numbers get even more remarkable. Barack Obama currently leads John McCain 53% to 41% in the district, per the GQR poll.
For some perspective on just how impressive that is, consider: President Bush won the district by 11 points in both 2002 and 2004. The best Democratic performance all decade in CA-50 was by centrist Democratic Sen. Dianne Feinstein, who won CA-50 by just under six points in the strongly Democratic year of 2006. Fellow Senator Barbara Boxer narrowly lost the district in 2004, despite thrashing Republican Bill Jones statewide.
Yet Leibham looks poised to pull off a stunning upset. He has surged since April, as Obama has (in the April poll, Obama trailed 53% to 40%). His fundraising has been solid (he outraised Bilbray by $150K in Q3), and he has spent on a few good ads, such as this one:
Given all this, you'd think that the Bilbray campaign would be deeply concerned (especially with the Obama numbers). They're certainly concerned enough to have released their own internals...which don't even look that good.
The Tarrance Group for Brian Bilbray. 10/12-13. Likely voters. MoE 5.7%.
Bilbray (R) 48
Leibham (D) 35
Hmm. That's a poll with a sample size of just 300 voters...and it shows the incumbent under 50%...and the Bilbray campaign is trotting it out to try and inspire confidence? Weak.
We've been heartbroken here before...but it looks as though Nick Leibham has a real chance to do what Francine Busby could not do.
On the web:
Nick Leibham for Congress