Any number of pundits have pointed to the age-related skew of Obama supporters. When I look at the internals of the DKos Daily Tracking Poll, it seems as if there may be more of a problem in the 30-44 demo, but perhaps this is an anomaly, as I haven't looked at this data over time.
M O
18-29 31 64 (33 point spread, +O)
30-44 47 46 (1 point spread, +M)
45-59 42 49 (7 point spread, +O)
60+ 44 48 (4 point spread, +O)
Below is the Gallup poll age-related data in September and October...
The Gallup internals can't be compared directly to the DK internals without access to the raw data because of the difference in the way the two polls cluster age ranges. And since I found Gallup internals reported over time, I will use them for the analysis that follows.
While the Gallup indicates a steady movement of support towards Obama in all age groups, the two age groups that show the least such movement are the 30-49 and the 65+ demos. With respect to the 65+ age group over time, Gallup shows a steady increase in support for Obama, shrinking the gap between them to only one point by mid-October. (Note that a one point difference is well within the margin of error. The MOE for these results is probably considerable larger than it would be on the typical Gallup poll because it divides the sample into subsets. I would expect the MOE to fall between 5% and 6%, assuming that the MOE on the pooled data is about 3%.)
To continue the analysis, the reason the pundits attach importance to how the candidates are doing in the 65+ age group is simple: Older people vote. Maybe this year everybody votes, but older people always vote. I've heard several commentators point to a need for Obama to reach more seniors in order to achieve the landslide they wonder about. (crossed fingers mode=ON)
So what could set off a senior surge that would seal the landslide deal?
On Monday Night Anderson Cooper 360, the panelists discussed the likely political effect of Obama's canceling events to travel to Hawaii and visit his ailing grandmother. Opined David Gergen (paraphrased): "It probably won't hurt him to miss the events in Ohio, but it does leave an opening for McCain. McCain may be able to control the news cycle for 48 hours."
I often appreciate DG's observations but, this time, I think he's completely off the mark. In fact, I wonder if this won't be the "get-on-board" moment for seniors supporting Obama in much greater numbers.
Here's why: Consider the optics of Obama's dropping everything to go to his grandmother's side. It may not mean much to you and me, but it's everything to people in the 60+ age group. Can there be any greater fear than that your children and grandchildren will be too busy for you when you are gravely ill? I think abandonment must figure larger than any other fear, except perhaps death.
I'm not saying Obama or his campaign had a political thought in their minds when they canceled his events. Indeed, I would not be surprised if they were willing to pay a political price for it.
But I think this is one of those surprising turns of this fascinating election ... I think it could be the moment when seniors realize what a thoughtful man Obama is, how solid his values are, and how these values inform his actions -- the aspects of his character that have made us all proud to support him.
I'll be curious to see the internals on the DK and Gallup trackers as of the weekend. To the extent Obama gets news coverage of his journey, I expect its positive effects on his support among seniors to rise exponentially.