Every State. Every race. Right here.
This is number 48 in a planned series of 50 entries between now and November, looking at each of the 50 states in terms of every race on that state's ticket--Presidential, Gubernatorial, Senate, House, State legislatures--the whole basketball court! Special attention paid to identifying and promoting the most important contests per state.
Today, we finish off the midwest with a look at the surprising newly-established swing state of INDIANA!
Here’s Indiana’s Congressional map:
http://www.nationalatlas.com/...
Some American culturists paint Indiana as one of those big subcultural crossroads, like Ohio (rust belt, farm belt, Appalachia) or Missouri (rust belt, farm belt, Dixie, Great Plains, Big River). I don’t see it. Unlike the other Great Lakes states, Indiana has no huge rust belt city comparable to Chicago, Cleveland, Detroit or Milwaukee. Indianapolis is not a manufacturing center and is only a light blue bastion, while the Gary area is too small to impact statewide elections much. Some small University cities, like Bloomington and South Bend, boost the Democrats; the rest of the state ranges the spectrum from West Ohio farm country in the north to Kentucky border south in the South, which have only the subtlest political differences. The whole combination looks pretty homogenous at a distance and has resulted in a long tradition of national elections in which Indiana has stood out like a sore thumb, voting reliably Republican while the rest of the region was blue or swing. That may be changing, as we’ll see below.
BLOGS: Blue Indiana is the Hoosier’s guide to state and local politics.
http://www.blueindiana.net/
PRESIDENT: : The last of the states I identified post-Denver as Obama’s firewall. Once again, those states are VA, NC, FL, OH, IN, MO, CO and NV...and now WV as well. I had expected to narrow down the list in October and cede some of them to McCain, but to my surprise the only states that seem to be pulling away from toss-up status are VA and CO, towards Obama. Great job, and keep up the pressure.
Indiana, with 11 EVs, is a state that McCain can absolutely not win without. Its loss would be part of a blowout, and McCain has pretty much ignored it, famously saying that if he loses here, he’s lost anyhow, so why bother. Of the firewall states, this one and West Virginia (which a month ago I didn’t even think would be in play) are the two most likely to go to either candidate, and thus the ones that have earned the right to a big investment at the last minute. Obama volunteers have flooded into NW Indiana from Chicago for months now, but that area can’t do it alone. People have to go to Indianapolis, Evansville, Muncie, Fort Wayne, Marion...all the small cities which together make up the bulk of the state and which are a barometer of heartland values.
With two weeks to go, if it was up to me I’d divide Obama’s remaining 14 days such that he spent two days each in Indiana, Missouri, North Carolina, Florida and Ohio, and one day each in Virginia, Nevada, West Virginia and one long-shot state like ND, MT or GA, just to expand the map and rattle McCain. ALL of the Kerry/Gore states are now locked up, and Obama should concentrate on his firewall.
One more thing about Indiana—together with Kentucky, their polls close earliest in the nation and report their results while the east coast is still going. Usually that means we tune in on election night and see the Republican start the night already with 19 electoral votes. Boo, Hiss. Wouldn’t it be nice to tune in and see them declaring Indiana too close to call. Or, better yet, blue for the first time since 1964? Seems to me, if Indiana goes for Obama early, it’ll be a sign that the only suspense of the night will be on the downticket races, maybe even the final sign of a landslide that persuades a lot of west coast Republicans to not bother to vote. For those reasons alone, a full court press in the Hoosier state is well worth the effort.
SENATE: Not up this year. We’ve got one Dem, Evan Bayh, and one Repub, Richard Lugar, one of the very last of the non-wingnuts in the chamber.
GOVERNOR AND OTHER STATEWIDE: Jill Long Thompson/Dennie Oxley (D) v. Mitchell Daniels/Rebecca Skillman (Inc R). For a state with a lot of congressional districts and only a tenuous hold on the legislature, the Gubernatorial race has to be THE BIG ONE for Indiana 2008, in spite of what I said about the importance of Indiana to the election. Unlike Missouri, the other crucial Governor contest, this one has not caught fire. The polls have not been kind to Long-Thompson, and she has consistently lagged, but appears to be closing the gap at the homestretch. Can she close it all the way in time? We should do our best to help her, because she could be the only thing standing between redistricting and a solid Republican trifecta determined to gerrymander away our hard-earned gains over the past decade.
http://www.hoosiersforjill.com/
Other statewide races include Linda Pence running for Attorney General and Richard Wood running for secretary of education. Both offices are open, with Republican incumbents retiring this year.
http://www.lindaforag.com/
http://richardwood.org/
STATE LEGISLATURE:
House of Representatives: 51D, 49R. Majority 1 (ties are settled by the executive branch, which is currently R).
Senate: 33R, 17D. deficit of 16.
Yowza! That’s a thin margin in the lower house, and a lot of work to make up in the Senate! Let’s get a new Governor in time for redistricting, fast!
The Wikipedia pages have pretty maps of the districts, so I’ll include them here:
http://en.wikipedia.org/...
http://en.wikipedia.org/...
CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICTS:
District 1—Pete Visklosky (Inc D). NW IN, including Gary. The most solid blue district in the state, the anchor of Obama’s hope for victory here, and a safe seat for Indiana’s longest serving Congressman.
http://www.viscloskyforcongress.us/...
District 2—Joe Donnelly (Inc D). North Central IN, including South Bend. A key swing district that Donnelly won in 2006. Republicans licked their chops at the chance to take it back, but it never really made it onto the map, as they had to divert their energy to defending those seats they still have. Safe Dem hold.
http://www.donnellyforuscongress.com/
District 3—Mike Montagano (D) v. Mark Souder (Inc R). NE corner of the state, including Fort Wayne. Jill Long Thompson’s former district, this one is the most likely remaining GOP district to flip, but a tough nut to crack nonetheless. Souder is more independent than most Republicans—he was one of just four GOP reps to vote against impeaching Bill Clinton, for example—and as his district has mellowed over time, he’s seen at least one close race. I don’t expect it to turn this year, but it may well do so soon. If you’re in Indiana and want to look at a Congressional race, this is worth the look.
http://www.montaganoforcongress.com/
District 4—Nels Ackerson (D) v. Steven Buyer (Inc R). Western Indianapolis suburbs. I’ve hated Buyer ever since he took the district from the absolutely wonderful James Jontz in 1992, but they keep re-electing him. This is a nasty district for Democrats, but Ackerson, an attorney, is making a go of it.
http://www.nels4congress.com/
District 5—Mary Etta Ruley (D) v. Dan Burton (Inc R). East Indianapolis suburbs. This district, and Burton, are even worse than the 4th and Buyer. It’s the reddest district in the state, and will probably be the very last one to flip.
http://maryettaruley.com/
District 6—Barry Welsh (D) v. Michael Pnce (Inc R). East Central IN, including Muncie. Welsh is a long term Koster and one of my favorite Hoosiers, a pioneer in the first drive before the 2006 elections to get Democratic candidates in all 435 districts in America. With Welsh’s help, we got to 425 (that is, only ten districts, most of them in the deep South, had no democrat on the ballot), which was a record. In 2004, we didn’t have even 400. This year, I believe, it’s 421.
Pence is a high ranking Republican, and will be hard to unseat. But Welsh, who ran a good campaign in 2006, is running a good one here, too, and a lot of Hoosiers are whispering that the whole state is on the verge of turning blue in a big way, and maybe carrying Wels, Montagano, and/or Ackerson along in a stunning upset. If not this year, then soon. Welsh understands the importance of competing in the "hopeless" districts—if, every year, you keep the GOP margin below what it was last time, eventually it becomes competitive. Welsh may have to keep running for four elections, like Newt did in a formerly "safe blue" Georgia district once upon a time, but the day will come when he wins.
http://barrywelsh.org/...
District 7—Andre Carson (Inc D). Indianapolis. Carson won a special election to the district upon the death of his Grandmother, Julia Carson, who had represented it before. He seems a safe bet for re-election in this blue-leaning district.
http://www.andrecarsonforcongress.co...
District 8—Brad Ellsworth (Inc D) SW IN, including Evansville. This one is often called the "Bloody Eighth", because of the many close and hard fought elections when it was held by a Republican. Ellsworth got his foot in the door in 2006, and this year at least, failed to draw a formidable challenger. They speculated a bit about it at the beginning of the year due to the closely divided electorate, but by now the consensus is it’s a safe Dem hold.
http://www.ellsworthforcongress.com/
District 9—Baron Hill (Inc D) v. Mike Sodrel(R). SE IN, including Bloomington and most of the Ohio River border. There’s a west NC district that used to be called The Turnstile for voting people in and out every cycle. That name could apply to IN-9, as Hill and Sodrel have been losing this district, getting back up and winning it back again from each other ever since Bush took office. Hill beat Sodrel three times; Sodrel beat Hill twice. Of the three districts we took in 2006, this one is considered the most vulnerable, but even it leans Dem and this should be the year Hill breaks the turnstile curse and puts Sodrel to bed for good.
http://www.hoosiersforhill.com/
REDISTRICTING INDIANA: With the state senate so heavily Republican, the odds against getting the trifecta and controlling redistricting are just too high to justify putting a lot of thought into the problem. Besides which, it’s hard to see how we could do much better than the map we’ve got right now.
What do YOU think?
Previous diaries in this series, including THE BIG ONE for each state:
Delaware(lower house of the State Legislature): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Arkansas(Obama, for want of any other contest): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Illinois(Dan Seals, IL-10): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Texas, Part One(Michael Skelly, TX-07): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Texas, Part Two(Rick Noriega, TX-Sen): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Utah(building infrastructure): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Massachusetts(Using our majority to govern well): http://www.dailykos.com/...
North Carolina(Kay Hagan, NC-Sen): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Hawaii(Using our majority to govern well; also, preparation for Governor, possible open Senate race in 2010): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Mississippi(Ronnie Musgrove, MS-Sen): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Oregon(Jeff Merkley, OR-Sen): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Ohio(Tie: Obama, and State Legislature, both houses): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Maryland(Frank Kratovil, MD-01): http://www.dailykos.com/...
North Dakota(State Legislature, upper house): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Alabama(Bobby Bright, AL-02): http://www.dailykos.com/...
California, Part one(Charles Brown, CA-04): http://www.dailykos.com/...
California, Part two(Russ Warner, CA-26): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Vermont(Gaye Symington, VT-Gov): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Iowa(Rob Hubler, IA-05): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Virginia(Obama): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Wyoming(Gary Trauner, WY-AL): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Pennsylvania (State Legislature, both houses): http://www.dailykos.com/...
New Mexico(Harry Teague, NM-02): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Kentucky(Bruce Lunsford, KY-SEN): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Nebraska(Scott Kleeb, NB-SEN): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Friggin’ IDAHO (Larry LaRocco, ID-Sen): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Maine (CHEERS to Tom Allen, ME-Sen): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Wisconsin (State Legislature, both houses): http://www.dailykos.com/...
New Jersey(Linda Stender, NJ-07): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Oklahoma (Andrew Rice, OK-Sen): http://www.dailykos.com/...
South Dakota(State Legislature, upper house): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Colorado(Obama): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Georgia(Jim Martin, GA-Sen): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Rhode Island(governing well): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Michigan(State legislature, upper house): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Alaska(Mark Begich, AK-Sen): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Missouri (Jay Nixon, MO-Gov): http://www.dailykos.com/...
West Virginia (GORGEOUS Anne Barth, WV-02): http://www.dailykos.com/...
South Carolina (Linda Ketner, SC-01, Rob Miller, SC-02): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Nevada (Jill Derby, NV-02): http://www.dailykos.com/...
New York, Part One (State Senate): http://www.dailykos.com/...
New York, Part Two(State Senate): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Tennessee (State Senate): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Washington (Darcy Burner, WA-08) http://www.dailykos.com/...
Minnesota (Al Franken, MN-Sen): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Connecticut (Jim Himes, CT-04): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Kansas: ( Don Betts, KS-04): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Florida (The South Florida Trio, FL-18, 21 and 25): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Louisiana (Don Cazayoux, LA-06): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Montana (Linda McCulloch, Secretary of State: http://www.dailykos.com/...