Recently, in google trends, Nate Silver's fivethirtyeight.com has not only increased in terms of its number of hits, in fact it has more hits than George W Bush himself. To be sure, a fascinating result, and testament to a politically active and highly educated class of voters that are seeking more than mere cable and network punditry. It seems that there is a "poll crave" out there. People are in search for polling data and more nuanced, in-depth research and analysis.
Observe in the following graph how fivethirtyeight's hits have steadily increased during the course of the election. The following is a graph of the hits for "fivethirtyeight" on google trends:
Observe in the following graph how fivethirtyeight has more hits than George W Bush--in fact, recently surpassing George W Bush. The following is a graph of the hits for "fivethirtyeight" represented in blue, and the hits for George W Bush represeted in red.
[note: all google trends analyses herein are strictly within the United States]
Even "Nate Silver"--the founder of fivethirtyeight.com--comes close--although not surpassing--George W Bush. See the following graph with Nate Silver represented in blue, and George W Bush represented in red. (Caveat: There are other Nate Silvers in America and elsewhere, but it seems that there are parallels with the hits of fivethirtyeight that suggest that the hits are (perhaps not all) but largely for Nate Silver of fivethirtyeight.com).
Graph #3: Volume of Hits for "Nate Silver" of Fivethirtyeight.com and George W Bush
In fact, fivethirtyeight.com, is competive with other sites that feature polling and election analysis. As an example, see how fivethirtyeight compares with Gallup, Pew, and Zogby.
Graph #4: Volume of Hits for "Fivethirtyeight," "Gallup," "Pew," and "Zogby"
Note: Fivethirtyeight is represented in blue, Gallup is represented in red, Pew is represented in yellow, and Zogby is represeted in green.
As one can see, fivethirtyeight has out-done Pew and is competitive with Zogby--perhaps a surprise for those fivethirtyeight fans who have become skeptical of Zogby International's polling numbers.
Increased Interest and Attention in Polling: The Example of the Bradley Effect
Fivethirtyeight comes in the wake of massive interest in ideas and concepts associated with polling. Consider the graph below that represents the increased attention in the "Bradley Effect" this year--the phenomenon named after Tom Bradley, a former mayor of Los Angeles-- that assumes that white voters lie about their vote when an African American is running, but at the voting booth vote for the white candidate.
Although many currently disagree that this phenomenon even exists --often referred to as a "theory in search of data" by pollsters--allegedly Tom Bradley was the first known victim of the Bradley Effect. When running for the governorship of California in 1982, Tom Bradley had higher numbers but on election day his white opponent, George Deukmejian, won. Likely because Barack Obama is African American many have been researching this phenomenon, including Democrats diagnosed with the Bradley Blues -- worried that Barack Obama's recently stellar polling across America might be inaccurate.
Graph #5: Hits on the "Bradley Effect" in 2008
Also, just examine the word "poll" and how it suggests that countless people reading, analyzing, and exploring polls, and polling related literature. As is evident from the graph, interest and attention in polling is increasing in the past months.
Graph #6: Hits on the word "Poll" in 2008
All this is very exciting, and I just wanted to take the opportunity to thank Nate Silver for his outstanding work. Personally, I have been following his work since he started publishing work in his Daily Kos diaries and then created his own website in March called Fivethirtyeight. His work represents an inspiration to me and my students.
Currently, in a course I am teaching at Davidson College called "Election 2008"--that examines the election in real time--"Fivethirtyeight"--is required reading. All students are expected to read and comment on an ongoing basis throughout this election.
Thanks Nate and Fivethirtyeight! And, Congratulations on beating George W Bush!
Note: Methodologically, one might legitimately inquire whether fivethirtyeight is a word that can represent something other than fivethirtyeight.com. It seems to me that considering the word "fivethirtyeight.com" also features prominently on google trends, it seems that is one reason to assume the word "fivethirtyeight" represents Nate Silver's site. Another reason to substantiate this is that even the number "538" (and not the word!) puts fivethirtyeight.com on top of google's search results. And furthermore, it seems implausible that people would write in full, the word to find Nate's site. Altogether, this seems to me to be the reasons why we can rely on the results above although it is worth mentioning that there might be other reasons why people might search the word "fivethirtyeight." But, I feel that they are miniscule relative to the existing website, fivethirtyeight.