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With virginia looking completely bleak many political analysts now suggest the only way to victory for McCain is to win back Virginia where he is down 10 points in the polls or to win Pennsylvania.

Team McCain tells us that their path to 270 runs through Pennsylvania, rated by Real Clear Politics as "Solid" blue, with an 11.7-point average polling advantage for Sen. Obama. The smartest Democrat we know e-mails: "I get the appeal of trying to win one state (Pa.) rather than having to run the table on a lot of little ones (Nevada, Colorado, Iowa ...), but this is the equivalent of Kerry deciding it would be easier to just stage a comeback in Texas."

Pennsylvania is a huge long shot where Obama has consistently had double digit leads.

Link to the article.

Here are the latest Rasmussen numbers.

        RR Poll  RR Poll Avg.   "538"Avg.       RR Mkts.         InTrade
McCain (R) 41%        43%           42%            15.5            15.0
Obama  (D)54%        51%           50%            84.5            87.0

Here are some scenarios and the general layout of the electoral map from 270towin.com based off of state polling

This is where state polling currently has the election with battleground states in beige. Notice Virginia is in Obama's column and that he is already winning with 277 electoral votes.

This represents the only possibility for McCain to win and a worst case scenario which gives all the tossups to McCain and for some unknown reason Pennsylvania goes to McCain. (maybe Murtha got to them real Pennsylvanians). This is a highly unlikey scenario with a .2% chance of happening.

What this represents is a fatal flaw in the McCain campaigns strategy to assume that they could pick up Pennsylvania and also manage to pick up all the toss up states. The chances are extremely bleak for the McCain Camp. This gambit will not work, especially in a state so well organized by the Obama campaign.

This represents the best case scenario for Obama which is an electoral landslide. This would be a crushing blow to the republicans. This final map is the one we must strive for. These next 13 days are crucial to not only win but like kos said "crush their backs" and to also make a statement. Get out Donate, Volunteer, GET OUT THE VOTE!!!

For extra eye candy I will give probably the best best case scenario.

Originally posted to AlexXx on Tue Oct 21, 2008 at 09:46 PM PDT.

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