Sometimes you have the cards, and sometimes you don't. It doesn't seem to be in the cards for John McCain this cycle, confirmed by today's news that there will be no magical 527 ads to save him:
Many in the party, including inside the McCain campaign, have held out hope that a deep-pocketed benefactor would emerge to bankroll ads in the campaign’s final days — spots that might, for example, resurrect the most incendiary clips from the Rev. Jeremiah Wright.
But thanks largely to lack of passion for McCain within the conservative base, diminished hopes that he can win and a sharp decline in the stock market that has badly pinched donors’ pockets, veteran Republican operatives say it appears almost certain that what could be the most damaging line of attack against the Democratic nominee will be left on the shelf.
"It’s Oct. 21, and if you can’t say it by Oct. 21, then chances are you’re not going to say anything," said Chris LaCivita, the strategist behind the Swift Boat Veterans for Truth in 2004.
Indeed, it's the Bush economic policies that John McCain supported which have led his campaign to this precipice:
For most of the donor pool for a robust third-party effort, this cycle appears to have come down to dollars and cents. Many, like Las Vegas casino mogul Sheldon Adelson, saw their portfolios slide, reducing their interest greatly in practicing their political hobby on the side.
Adelson had been counted on as the chief benefactor of Freedom’s Watch, a group originally billed as the right-wing equivalent of MoveOn.org.
But sources say Adelson has pulled the plug on the group, and that it will only wind up spending $25 million to $30 million this cycle — a far cry from their original vision.
Freedom’s Watch had to greatly scale back its ambitions, never aired a single ad in the presidential race and has an uncertain future after the election.
I'm certain about its future: there won't be one. Duh.
End of the day, the message McCain is receiving from his financial base is the same one he should have listened to at the casino: "Republican donors, at the end of day, aren’t stupid," said another Republican familiar with third-party activities this cycle. "They’re not going to throw good money after bad."
Or, to go Sorkin, John McCain doesn't have a full house in his hand to play -- in the game of electoral poker, he doesn't have a house of any sort, not even a pup tent. He's got at best trip sevens, while Obama's holding a straight, and none of his friends wants to lend McCain another chip for a hand he can't win.