We added Judy Baker to Orange to Blue at the end of September because we've known for some time that her race - the open-seat battle in Missouri's 9th District, where she faces off against Republican Blaine Luetkemeyer for the right to succeed retiring Republican Kenny Hulshof - would be highly competitive.
We just didn't know it would blow up to quite this degree.
Two of the most prominent House prognosticators out there - Stuart Rothenberg, and the venerable Cook Political Report - have moved this race to Toss Up status in the last ten days.
Baker significantly outraised her Republican opponent, Blaine Luetkemeyer, in the third quarter. She has posted unanswered leads in recent Democratic internal polling. And she has racked up a number of high-profile endorsements, including the Veterans of Foreign Wars PAC, in the VFW's only endorsement in an open-seat race this cycle, as well as the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, by far the largest paper in the state and one of the largest in the Midwest:
Democratic state Rep. Judy Baker, 48, of Columbia, who defeated three candidates to win her primary, has far more progressive ideas, to say nothing of a deeper understanding of the real problems facing Missouri and the nation. She is a health care executive who could become a leader in the national debate over health care reform. She showed an ability in the Legislature to work across party lines. Judy Baker's intelligence and independence make her the choice in the Ninth District.
Baker led by four points in the last poll released on the race:
Global Strategy Group for the DCCC. 10/5-7. Likely voters. MoE 4.9%.
Baker (D) 40
Luetkemeyer (R) 36
The fact that the race is so competitive - that Baker is leading at the moment - in a district where George W. Bush received 59% of the vote in 2004, is a testament to the remarkable campaign Judy Baker has run.
It was also a surefire sign that the wrath of the entire Republican apparatus would come down on Judy Baker's head...as indeed it has.
First off, the NRCC has targeted the race as one of their top priorities, having spent $413,000 in the district just since October 8.
Subsequently, Baker's opponent, Republican Blaine Luetkemeyer saw Baker's Q3 fundraising numbers and subsequently gave himself $500,000 to play with. It must be awfully nice to be able to do that...which needless to say, Judy Baker cannot do.
Finally, Vice President Dick Cheney himself has decided to focus on defeating Judy Baker, and held a fundraiser for Luetkemeyer on Monday:
"The Vice President is supporting Blaine's campaign to fix a broken Democrat Congress that for two years did nothing as the majority party to combat rising energy prices and ignored warnings about the financial crisis now facing hard-working folks," said Luetkemeyer spokesman Paul Sloca. "And it's disturbing to that these very same failed Democrats, along with their fraudulent friends at ACORN, are bankrolling Judy Baker's ongoing campaign of lies and deceit."
Should Dick Cheney, and Blaine Luetkemeyer, and the NRCC get their way, this is who will be going to Congress on behalf of the district:
Judy Baker is positioned to win this race, but what's left of the GOP horde is congregating on Missouri's Ninth District to stop her. You can fight back, however.
You can help paint a big swath of blue across Northeast Missouri.
You can stick the nail in the coffin of the pathetic NRCC by defeating one of their very last favored candidates.
You can send the message to Blaine Luetkemeyer that no amount of self-funding can overcome the grassroots support which Judy Baker enjoys.
And you can send one final, personal "eff you" to Vice President Richard Bruce Cheney.
Throw the Republicans an anvil, and help send Judy Baker to Washington.
On the web:
Judy Baker for Congress
Orange to Blue ActBlue Page
Update by kos: Here's the district (the glowing one):
Not only is it nice to pick up any seat, but I really like these big districts that take off a big chunk of Red from the map. And since MO-06 right to the west of this district also competitive, over half the state's landmass would suddenly be Blue, and that would look very cool.