I changed the title because no one appeared to give a shit about my diary and I was trying to draw attention and comments to it.
- McCain campaign morale is somewhere between low and non-existent. There is nothing more damning for a campaign than low morale among supporters. Every day that ticks by, every poll that comes out showing Obama in the lead, is another day of despair for McCain supporters. A quick anecdote to prove my point. I work in a VERY conservative county in Pennsylvania. My boss is a judge and he and his secretary are fox news watching, black man fearing conservatives who tow the party line. Every chance they get to point out something Obama conceivably has done wrong or some policy position he puts forth they make sure I know how they feel about it. This has gone on for months. But it all changed last week. The secretary came up to me and said "looks like obama is going to win" in a very humbled and somber tone. In the days after the Powell endorsement I havent heard a PEEP out of either of them.
But how can you blame them? When your candidates campaign is slowly and quietly backing out of every state they thought they could "flip" and as the path to victory becomes more and more narrow, its upsetting.
- Low Morale means low turnout and low fundraising. Up until very recently the RNC was raking in the dough, especially after the Palin pick. This was directly helping McCain as the two could create joint commercials attacking obama and congressional liberals (See Ayers ad) thereby circumventing FEC law. Now, the RNC is so strapped for cash they are abandoning congressional races that are CLOSE! The RNC backed out of Bachmann's race when it was at toss-up! Now, with the revelation about Fasiongate or whatever we are calling it these days, how many republican donors will be willing to shell over cash to a floundering campaign that will likely spend the dollars to clothe the VP candidates chidren?
And about that turnout? McCain claims his new firewall is Pennsylvania. Win PA and the other big bush states and they win. Problem is McCain's rally in deep red Bensalem drew 500 people. 500? I could draw 500 people in Pennsylvania just promising a free obama sticker let alone having the candidate show up. Sagging poll numbers and an incoherent message leads to low morale which leads to low fundraising and low turnout which leads to Obama victory.
- Ed Rendell is NOT doing enough to help Obama in Pennsylvania. As a Pennsylvania attorney, working for a judge, I like to think I have a good understanding of the politics of this state. And one thing I have noticed is a complete lack of support by Rendell. I have heard of no rallys, press conferences, etc... held by Rendell OR Philadelphia Mayor Nutter, 2 staunch Hillary supporters in the primaries. Rendell recently told the press he is begging Obama to come back to the state because he is worried. Well, Rendell aint helping us so we need to make sure the McCain firewall causes a backdraft in his face as we GOTV in PA!!!
- Obama will come back from his grandmothers visit as a man renewed. Obama has pretty much dedicated this election to his grandma and going to be by her side will give him a new fire. He says his biggest regret is not being by his mothers bedside when she passed away. And considering that his grandma helped create the man, I can only imagine the inspiring words that she will bestow on him that should light a fire under his ass and have him come out swinging. During the foreign policy summit Q&A yesterday you could hear the sadness and solemness in his voice. I think a trip to Hawaii, to his stomping grounds, to see the woman who helped rais him will give him a renewed sense of purpose.
- This election is NOT over. Listen, polls look good, real good. National and statewide. And I am NOT a believer in the bradley effect. But remember, Bush is the president, he controls the release of information from the White House and while I DONT believe that a bin laden tape or terror threat will take the economy off people's minds, it might be enough to flip a couple points. And if we start letting up, if we starting giving up ground and THEN something like that happens? Well then its our own faults. The press could turn on us at any moment, one of McCain's many many MANY attacks could start to resonate. One way or another we must not take anything for granted. Remember:
New Hampshire
New Hampshire
New Hampshire
New Hampshire
New Hampshire
New Hampshire
New Hampshire