The amount of Right-wing propaganda published this election season has been off the charts. Now, their media stooges are joining in on the fun during John McCain's most desperate hour.
On the same day that respected and impartial university and national polling firms released polling samples that show Democratic Party Presidential Candidate Barack Obama (D-IL) leading by anywhere from 4-14 points nationally and in crucial battleground states, IBD/TIPP has released a poll (including samples taken from the same dates) that shows Obama's lead narrowing to one point.
The easy way to explain this obvious blip on the polling radar map is to label it for what it is statistically: an outlier. After all, polling samples with high margins of error (as IBD/TIPP's has) that are so far from the median have no statistical significance in a scientific applied research analysis. However, I have looked into the internals of this poll and come to the conclusion that IBD/TIPP has deliberately released a poll that intentionally includes non-representative age, geographic, and class samples to achieve their desired result - which is a phony "tightening" of the presidential race in McCain's favor. I have based this conclusion on the following internals taken from IBD's own website:
Voters aged 18-24
McCain 74
Obama 22
Even the worst moron could sniff the sewage of that internal. Exactly what part of the country was IBD/TIPP polling - the Liberty University College Republicans? Obama has been overwhelming carrying that age group during the entire primary and general election seasons. That McCain could be carrying this age demographic (and by a three to one margin) is tantamount to Obama carrying seniors by a ten to one margin. Either IBD/TIPP reversed its results in error, or they polled the deepest parts of Sean Hannity's family reunion and multiplied the results by a factor of thirty. In either case, the internal is deeply flawed and statistically incorrect.
Results by Region
Northeast Obama +18
Midwest Obama +4
West Obama +3
South McCain +11
So, Obama wins three out of four regions - yet he is only leading by one point nationally? Did they poll 50 likely voters from the top three regions and the other 900 from the deep South? A representative sample could not have those geographical margins and still have the race dead even.
In order to achieve this polling result, IBD/TIPP had to have polled the deep, deep South by a wide margin and excluded results from Southern states like VA - where Obama is presently leading by double digits. Perhaps this is where they snagged their "18-24 year old sample" from?
Ideology
Conservative McCain +48
Moderate Obama +28
Liberal Obama +80
Again, are they sampling conservative voters by a five or six to one margin? A representative sample based on those percent margins could not possibly yield this close of an aggregate result, so it is obvious that IBD/TIPP cherry-picked its samples to represent overwhelming amounts of conservative-leaning voters to make the race appear closer.
Household Description
Upper/upper middle Obama +14
Middle McCain +5
Working Obama +3
Lower Obama +37
Interesting that IBD/TIPP chose to separate "working" from "middle" class here. Obama won three of the four household types - and the one McCain did win, he won by only five points. How, then, does Obama lead by only one point?
Folks, these are not statistics that I have made up or distorted. They are FACTS as published by IBD/TIPP's own polling internals. That a Right-wing website would publish what amounts to a straw poll in the Alf Landon/Franklin Roosevelt tradition is not necessarily news. That IBD/TIPP would be propped on a pedestal as some sort of polling authority when tossing out internals like this is an outrage.
Author's Note:
As I write this, Nate Silver at Fivethirtyeight.com is dropping the hammer on IBD/TIPP's poll today with regards to the youth portion of the sample. Give it a read at:
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/whats-wrong-with-this-picture-aka-nate.html
Want more evidence of IBD's Right-wing propaganda? Check out my website and accompanying pics at:
http://democratictribune.com/