You read that right, as reported by 538 a new poll in Montana has Obama up four points.
The Big Sky is in play, folks. What's more, as I opined here last month, everyone's favorite vacillating libertarian, Ron Paul, may have more than a little to do with it.
More below the fold.
Here's the fun part at 538 (emphasis mine):
Obama even leads in Montana, a state which his campaign has never disengaged from, according to an MSU-Billings poll. Importantly, the MSU poll mentioned Ron Paul by name, who is on the ballot in Montana. He drew 4 percent of the vote, the precise difference between Obama and McCain.
What makes this all the more amusing is that Ron Paul really doesn't want to be on the ballot in Montana. A couple months ago the Montana Constitution Party decided to drop their own nominee, Chuck Baldwin, from their ballot line. Reason: the Montana Constitutionalists don't think their national party is pro-life enough (which is kind of like accusing the NRA of being in the tank with Jim Brady, but that's another diary I suppose). The line was offered to Paul and he accepted.
A couple weeks later, Paul changed his mind. But, oops! Too late. He couldn't get his name off the ballot (and with a Republican secretary of state, no less). Not long after that Paul endorsed ... Chuck Baldwin.
Side note: as someone with strong libertarian tendencies, it never ceases to amaze me how libertarian-minded people can support Paul, who's always eager to placate ultra-conservatives and is one of the most egregious flip-floppers I've ever seen in politics. That's saying something.
Montana is about the last place McCain wanted to see Ron Paul on the ballot. The state was one of Paul's strongest in his campaign. In fact, Paul beat McCain in the Montana GOP caucus. I've been saying for some time that if Obama can get within five points here, Paul is a factor.
Obama must have seen this coming. After all, he never pulled his campaign out of Montana. It could pay off.