I looked at the southern states data according to the current totals at electoral-vote.com. I identify southern states as any state that was a confederate states. They are Texas, Arkansas, Louisiana, Alabama, Mississippi, Florida, Georgia, Tennessee, South Carolina, North Carolina, Virginia.
We all identify the south differently where some include Missouri, Kentucky, and Oklahoma. But I think when the south is discussed the confederate states are mostly thought of.
So I calculated how much Obama was down in each state and came up with the average of 7.3%. I find this promising which means the south may not belong to republicans anymore.
Percentages according to electoral-vote.com
VA: +7
NC: +2
FL: tie
GA: -7
MS: -10
AR:-10
SC: -11
TX: -12
TN: -12
LA: -15
AL: -20
= 88/12 states = 7.3%
I see Obama winning VA and NC. FL is a toss-up but I think Obama takes it. I believe in this wave heading towards Obama which means I identify any states that is being polled 10% or lower. This means that GA, MS, and AR I think are potential upsets. If Obama were to take all three upsets with VA, NC, and FL, then he would have won most of the "southern" vote by winning 6 states if you base it on number of states won. Other potential upsets out there are WV, ND, SD, MT, and I still think AZ could be even though Obama is down 14 there.
Am I too optimistic? I think anything is possible. The ugliest states are WY, UT, OK, and AL where Obama has absolutely no chance. Oh as well as ID, KS, and most of NE, and AK.