A new poll out today by the St. Petersburg Times shows Barack Obama with a 7-point lead here in Florida. That's good news, of course, particularly since the Sunshine State is a must-win for McCain. Still, you don't have to look too far into the numbers to find a a few dangers lurking in the Florida waters for Obama. We still have a lot of work to do!
The biggest news in the poll is that Obama leads among independent voters by a whopping 2-1 margin in Florida. A month ago, when the candidates were essentially tied in Florida, McCain had a four-point lead among independents. But Obama now leads independents 57 percent to 22 percent. That's an incredible 39-point swing to Obama in just one month.
"Right now this election is about independents — independents and the economy," said pollster Tom Eldon. "Obama is clearly establishing himself as the candidate of the independents."
The key reason for Obama's surge among independents, and among all voter for that matter? It's the economy, stupid.
At a time when economic anxiety trumps all issues in Florida, about half of the voters surveyed — and almost six in 10 independents — said Obama has a better plan to improve the economy, while one in three voters said McCain does. Forty-five percent said Obama has shown the most leadership on the economy, and 34 percent said McCain.
Voters -- independents in particular -- are also turned off by McCain's nasty, deceptive, negative campaigning. It's clearly not what voters want to hear about when there are so many serious problems in the country right now, and when the economy is tanking in Florida as badly (if not worse) than elsewhere in the country. Even the Republican pollster participating in the survey had to admit this.
Conway, whose company works mostly with Republicans, questioned the effectiveness of McCain's recent campaign strategy.
"Trying to connect Barack Obama to Bill Ayers, rather than connect McCain to the average voter in the economy has ... been dubious," she said, referring to the 1960s radical who was an Obama acquaintance years ago.
That's certainly the view of independent voter Pam Nadeau, a 59-year-old homemaker from Clearwater who participated in the poll and voted early for Obama. She said she used to hold McCain in high regard but has come to resent his campaign tactics.
"I've watched them insinuate Obama is 'palling around with terrorists,' " said Nadeau, repeating a quote Gov. Sarah Palin made a central part of her stump speech. "He knows it's not true, and he's doing it only to sway voters. Dividing America is the wrong thing to do."
The wholesale flocking of independent Floridians to the Obama camp was confirmed by a focus group of independent voters that the Times has been following for the past two months. The voters were all truly undecided two months ago, but now 9 (perhaps 10) of the 11 independents are voting for Obama. And McCain's latest gimmick -- Joe the Plumber -- isn't flying with independents either.
At the last session last week, most were scoffing at McCain's constant talk of Joe the Plumber, still calling Palin unqualified, divisive and grating, and acknowledging that Obama has grown on them.
But there are a few dangers lurking in the poll numbers for Obama:
- Obama leads in the all-important Tampa Bay region by a slim 48-44 percent margin, barely outside of the 3.5 MOE. As goes Tampa Bay, so goes the state, so he needs to do better here.
- McCain leads among Hispanic/Latino voters, 47 percent to 40 percent, although McCain's lead is lower than Bush's in 2004, when he got 56 percent of the Hispanic/Latino vote in Florida.
The poll shows -- somewhat surprisingly -- that the final outcome of the election in Florida may hinge on the all-important senior vote. In what must be bad news for McCain, the poll shows that among voters 65 and older, McCain and Obama are in a dead heat, with 11 percent still undecided.
McCain certainly should have the senior vote nailed down in Florida by now. But that 11-percent undecided number is pretty big. Clearly a lot of older voters in Florida are not happy with McCain but not ready to vote for Obama.
"If there's any more fluidness left in this race — and God knows there probably is because this is 2008 and nothing is predictable — it may rest with these seniors," said Conway.
Hmmm, maybe we need another Great Schlep? If anyone has older relatives in Florida, call them up this weekend and see if you can't convince them that Obama is the best candidate to protect and improve the well-being of seniors and all Americans.
And if you can spare anything at all, please donate a few final bucks to Obama. A $15 donation today will get you a nifty Obama/Biden car magnet that will be a fantastic memento of the campaign for years to come. Florida is an expensive state to campaign in, so he'll need all the dollars he can get to close the deal down here.
Good luck everyone!