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Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 10/20-22. Likely voters. MoE ±5% (9/17-18 numbers).

Luetkemeyer (R) 47 (49)
Baker (D) 42 (40)

That's a pretty good trend for Orange to Blue candidate Judy Baker, who is now within the margin of error in our polling. The last DCCC poll released on the race showed Baker ahead by four points, 40% to 36%.

The two candidates are tied among women, but Luetkemeyer leads by 10 points among men. Her latest ad, which targets Luetkemeyer for voting against compelling insurance companies to cover mammograms, may well be designed to solidify Baker's support among women.

The candidates are also essentially tied among independents - Luetkemeyer leads 44% to 42% among indies. Baker will need to surge ahead among independents in order to win.

Not surprisingly, Baker is outperforming Obama in this conservative R+7 district. McCain leads Obama 54% to 40%, which is slightly above Bush/Kerry levels (Bush defeated Kerry here 59-41).

We wrote yesterday that this had become one of the very hottest races in the country; this poll would certainly seem to confirm that. Baker can absolutely win this race; you can do your part here to ensure that she does.

On the web:
Judy Baker for Congress
Orange to Blue ActBlue Page

This survey was conducted by Research 2000 of Rockville, Maryland. A total of 400 likely voters in the Ninth Congressional District were interviewed by telephone between October 20 and October 22, 2008.

Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges was utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the district. Quotas were assigned to reflect the voter registration of distribution by district.

The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 5% percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the "true" figure would fall within that range if the entire population were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as for gender or party affiliation.


Men                  191 (48%)
Women                209 (52%)

Democrats            126 (31%)
Republicans          155 (39%)
Independents/Other   119 (30%)

18-29                 72 (18%)
30-44                128 (32%)
45-59                121 (31%)
60+                   79 (19%)

QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Blaine Luetkemeyer? (Iffavorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):

                 VERY FAV       FAV        UNFAV     VERY UNFAV    NO OPINION

ALL                 12%         38%         22%         11%         17%

                   FAV         UNFAV       NO OPINION

ALL                 50%         33%         17%

MEN                 55%         31%         14%
WOMEN               45%         35%         20%

DEMOCRATS           30%         54%         16%
REPUBLICANS         72%         15%         13%
INDEPENDENTS        44%         33%         23%

18-29               47%         36%         17%
30-44               52%         31%         17%
45-59               49%         34%         17%
60+                 51%         31%         18%

QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Judy Baker? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):

                 VERY FAV       FAV        UNFAV     VERY UNFAV    NO OPINION

ALL                 10%         33%         28%         10%         19%

                   FAV         UNFAV       NO OPINION

ALL                 43%         38%         19%

MEN                 39%         43%         18%
WOMEN               47%         33%         20%

DEMOCRATS           58%         20%         22%
REPUBLICANS         32%         54%         14%
INDEPENDENTS        42%         35%         23%

18-29               45%         33%         22%
30-44               42%         42%         16%
45-59               44%         35%         21%
60+                 41%         42%         17%

QUESTION: If the election for Congress were held today would you vote for Judy Bakerthe Democrat or Blaine Luetkemeyer the Republican?

                   LUETKEMEYER BAKER       OTHER       UNDECIDED  

ALL                 47%         42%          8%          3%

MEN                 50%         40%          9%          1%
WOMEN               44%         44%          7%          5%

DEMOCRATS            9%         84%          5%          2%
REPUBLICANS         80%          8%          9%          3%
INDEPENDENTS        44%         42%         10%          4%

18-29               42%         45%          8%          5%
30-44               52%         39%          8%          1%
45-59               45%         43%          9%          3%
60+                 49%         41%          7%          3%

QUESTION: If the election for President were held today would you vote for the Democratic ticket of Barack Obama and Joe Biden the Republican ticket of John McCain and Sarah Palin or another candidate?

                   MCCAIN      OBAMA       OTHER       UNDECIDED  

ALL                 54%         40%          3%          3%

MEN                 59%         37%          3%          1%
WOMEN               49%         43%          3%          5%

DEMOCRATS           16%         80%          3%          1%
REPUBLICANS         84%         10%          2%          4%
OTHER               56%         38%          3%          3%

18-29               50%         44%          3%          3%
30-44               55%         37%          4%          4%
45-59               54%         41%          3%          2%
60+                 57%         37%          2%          4%

Originally posted to Daily Kos on Fri Oct 24, 2008 at 04:20 PM PDT.

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Comment Preferences

  •  When you donate to the Baker campaign.... (6+ / 0-) orphaned pootie gets fed:

    This is my in-law's CD.  I really want it to go blue!

    Alton IL

    The Alton Weekly Inquirer! News roundup with snark, every Friday morning right here on Daily Kos!

    by AAbshier on Fri Oct 24, 2008 at 04:26:49 PM PDT

  •  I like that (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jnhobbs, TomP

    it's a big chunk of red territory to turn Blue. The itty bitty urban districts are nice for the majorities, but these make the overall look bluer, and that has aesthetic value.

    •  It connects Iowa, Illinois and Missouri (0+ / 0-)

      and then over to Kansas then down to Oklahoma.  We want border-bleeding blue - much easier to color that way.

      the grabbing hands grab all they can, all for themselves after all

      by sele on Fri Oct 24, 2008 at 04:43:26 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  and then on to Arkansas... (0+ / 0-)

        And that's what we need - a way to drive across the country and never leave a blue county!

        the grabbing hands grab all they can, all for themselves after all

        by sele on Fri Oct 24, 2008 at 04:44:45 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  If we picked up MO-9 and MS-3, we could..... (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:

          go from one border to the other in the middle of the country (LA-6 is still red on the map, but it was won by Democrat Don Cazayoux in one of the special elections this year).  Of course, MS-3 is probably impossible, since the incumbent ran unopposed in '06.  But still, we're getting there!

  •  Every time (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    sardonyx, brownsox

    I see these maps -

    I always think to myself, DAMN - my side's shit is SO much cooler than the other side's shit.

    Kudos on the maps.

    I guess everyone's got their own blog now.

    by zonk on Fri Oct 24, 2008 at 04:27:39 PM PDT

  •  Will Obama throw some money to Baker? (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    nota bene, JesusFists

    It'd seem to be in his campaign's interest to maximize Baker's voter turn-out; perhaps one of the few instances where the down-ticket candidate can help the up-ticket candidate.

    "You can't talk to the ignorant about lies, since they have no criteria." --Ezra Pound

    by machopicasso on Fri Oct 24, 2008 at 04:33:07 PM PDT

    •  I'd love to see the Obama campaign (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      campaign in Columbia and Kirksville with Nixon, McCaskill, and Baker.

      I might be wrong, but if Obama spends some time in outer districts of STL/St. Charles, he may pick up some additional local press in the more rural areas of MO-9, because I think those areas are still marginally in the STL media market.)

  •  Sent $50 yesterday (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    sardonyx, JesusFists, eean

    I'm dreaming of a Blue, Blue Christmas.

    Now if we can only get Luetkemeyer to talk about real america...

    "You know, just because the thing I saw wasn't there doesn't mean there wasn't something there that I didn't see." Ann Althouse, Conservative Thoughtmeister

    by Bill Section 147 on Fri Oct 24, 2008 at 04:40:56 PM PDT

  •  She sent me a letter today (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    TomP, JesusFists, eean

    Thank you for contributing $10 to our campaign.
    I don't have much, but when I know it is the right thing to do, I spread my contributions of $10. Although my total obama count is $85, but that was over the course of the last year. I just like the feeling that I contributed even just a little to this wonderful movement.

    Politicians are the same all over. They promise to build a bridge even where they is no river. ~Nikita Khrushchev

    by dashat on Fri Oct 24, 2008 at 04:49:25 PM PDT

  •  Good poll to see, but we've got to give it all (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    sele, TomP, eean

    Judy is getting pounded with ads from Luetkemeyer and the RNCC implying that she apparently wants Luetkemeyer's cancer-diagnosed father to die because she supports universal health care, er, "socialized medicine."  As a MO-9 resident, I beseech all of you to give whatever you can to stop Luetkemeyer's near-$1,000,000 in self-funding and the full force of the RNCC.  I donate often and canvass twice a week, but we in MO-9 can't do it alone.

  •  How many more elections (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    nota bene, TomP

    before the GOP goes the way of the Whigs? At this rate, they might be all but gone by '12, MIRVed into neocon, corporatist and wingnut wings (which itself will spin off into bible-thumping, gun-toting and gay/illegals-hating wings).

    I always loved spinoffs!

    To the GOP, change means doing a 360.

    by kovie on Fri Oct 24, 2008 at 04:55:21 PM PDT

    •  rec'd for "MIRVed" (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      kovie, JesusFists

      They are at a real danger of turning into a regional party....there is a delicious possibility of the inmates really rising up and taking over the asylum, driving more of the center-right into the Democratic Big Tent, and causing some Senate blowouts in 2010. (Maybe we could finally get rid of Bond....)

      •  Unless Dems misplay their hand (0+ / 0-)

        I suspect that it's going to happen. There might still be a "Republican Party", but in the same way that there's still a "Rome"--but with vastly worse food. ;-)

        Although I wouldn't mind trying a mooseburger someday...

        To the GOP, change means doing a 360.

        by kovie on Fri Oct 24, 2008 at 05:20:25 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  nah (0+ / 0-)

      The way the two party system works is that Republicans will stick around, but they'll adapt.

      There is a lot of difference within the Democratic party. So in my ideal world the Republicans can start championing the more blue dog and moderate wing and the Democratic party can be truely progressive. :)

      Granted we could use second Era of Good Feelings, there's a lot of work that needs to be done.

      •  I've been predicting this for several years (0+ / 0-)

        Sure, the name "Republican Party" will likely remain, but it won't in any way resemble today's GOP (well, except the dishonesty--you really can't push a center-right ideology without lying about it to constituents who will never benefit from it). It will probably be closer to the old Eisenhower/Rockefeller GOP, before Nixon spawned his evil seed in it, Reagan took it to the loonie end of the spectrum, and Gingrich and Bush destroyed it. I.e. for the corporatist, country club, moderately conservative set.

        And it'll find much common cause with conservative and corporatist Dems, some of whom might end up joining it if the left ends up having more power than they're comfortable with. Which is just as fine, as we don't really want or need them, they belong in the GOP, and it'll make for a healthier two-party system, where the two aren't as far apart as they've been these past few decades, the tents are smaller and more manageable, and there will be more cooperation.

        As for the wingnuts, they're headed back into the wilderness, where they can worship their dead and fallen gods over Jesus Juice and mooseburgers.

        To the GOP, change means doing a 360.

        by kovie on Fri Oct 24, 2008 at 08:54:08 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  This would be a great victory (0+ / 0-)

    if we can pull it off.

    "What we've seen the last few days is nothing less than the final verdict on an economic philosophy that has completely failed." -- Barack Obama

    by TomP on Fri Oct 24, 2008 at 04:57:46 PM PDT

  •  How 'bout some luv for mah boy Richard? (0+ / 0-)

    He's the David against Roy "Goliath" Blunt in the 7th, down there in God's Country, Ashcroft Country, Springfield and Joplin and good old Branson, Mi-zoo-rah...!

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