Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 10/21-22. Likely voters. MoE 4% (No trend lines.)
McCain (R) 52
Obama (D) 41
Bush won the state 54-45 in 2004. There was some hope that Obama could narrow the gap, especially given his national gains the past couple of weeks. But alas, it looks like when all's said and done (and the unusually high African American undecided vote is factored in), Obama will likely perform along the same lines as Kerry did in 2004.
ARKANSAS POLL RESULTS – OCTOBER 2008
The Research 2000 Arkansas Poll was conducted from October 21 through October
22, 2008. A total of 600 likely voters who vote regularly in state elections were interviewed statewide by telephone.
Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges was utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the state. Quotas were assigned to reflect the voter registration of distribution by county.
The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 4% percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the “true” figure would fall within that range if the entire population were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as for gender or party affiliation.
SAMPLE FIGURES:
Men 286 (48%)
Women 314 (52%)
Democrats 252 (42%)
Republicans 180 (30%)
Other 168 (28%)
18-29 108 (18%)
30-44 197 (33%)
45-59 193 (32%)
60+ 102 (17%)
White 511 (85%)
Black 83 (14%)
Other 6 (1%)
QUESTION: If the election for President were held today would you vote for the Democratic ticket of Barack Obama and Joe Biden the Republican ticket of John McCain and Sarah Palin or another candidate?
MCCAIN OBAMA OTHER UNDECIDED
ALL 52% 41% 2% 5%
MEN 55% 39% 2% 4%
WOMEN 49% 43% 2% 6%
DEMOCRATS 23% 72% 2% 3%
REPUBLICANS 89% 5% 1% 5%
INDEPENDENTS 57% 34% 3% 6%
18-29 50% 44% 2% 4%
30-44 55% 39% 2% 4%
45-59 52% 40% 2% 6%
60+ 52% 41% 1% 6%
WHITE 60% 34% 2% 4%
BLACK 4% 83% - 13%