Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 10/20-22. Likely voters. MoE ±5% (no trendlines).
McCaul (R-inc) 46
Doherty (D) 42
Well, this is a fantastic poll for Democratic nominee Larry Joe Doherty, and it's not the first. These numbers match a Doherty internal which pegged the race at 43-38 for McCaul.
This is an R+13 district, though it's trending Democratic; Kerry outperformed Gore by 4.5 points here, even as he underperformed Gore nationally. In addition, the district has a Democratic tradition, as does much of that part of Texas: Democrat Lloyd Doggett represented the Tenth before redistricting, succeeding longtime Democratic Rep. J.J. Pickle; indeed, the former Representatives of the Tenth include President Lyndon B. Johnson.
McCaul has never enjoyed great popularity in his own right. He faced an underfunded Democrat, Ted Ankrum, in the 2006 elections (the only Democratic challenger he has ever had), and won with just 55% of the vote. Now it seems as though Doherty is poised to give him the scare of his political career, and perhaps even come away victorious.
Doherty, 62, is quite a character. He is an attorney and former star of the television show "Texas Justice", which ran from 2001 to 2005. While some initially viewed his as a vanity campaign, he quickly proved he was most serious about his race, defeating a very capable and intelligent Democratic opponent (Dan Grant) in the primary, raising nearly $1 million for the cycle and nearly matching McCaul, and gaining on the Republican incumbent all cycle in polling numbers.
Doherty has been endorsed by the Austin American-Statesman and the Austin Chronicle. The American-Statesman's endorsement is worth reading:
Doherty is a rather eccentric personality with an unusual way of speaking, but he's smart and he's firm on the issues. He wants us out of Iraq, he didn't like parts of the Wall Street bailout but supports federal investment in struggling banks, and he's for a single-payer health plan. His agenda would be good for Austin.
Doherty has the money and support to give McCaul a challenge in a district DeLay and the Legislature drew for a Republican. McCaul has refused to debate Doherty, which lends credence to those who believe the district is a toss-up this year. McCaul hasn't given voters a reason to support him for another term and Doherty offers a viable alternative.
Doherty has a real shot at winning, and given the favorability of the political climate, this may be the best chance at taking down McCaul that we'll have for years.
On the web:
Larry Joe Doherty for Congress
Update by kos: McCain wins the district 48-41. Bush won the district 62-38 in 2004. That augurs well for Noriega, and maybe even Obama.
TX-10 CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT POLL – OCTOBER 2008
This survey was conducted by Research 2000 of Rockville, Maryland. A total of 400 likely voters in the Tenth Congressional District were interviewed by telephone between October 21 and October 23, 2008.
Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges was utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the district. Quotas were assigned to reflect the voter registration of distribution by district.
The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 5% percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the "true" figure would fall within that range if the entire population were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as for gender or party affiliation.
SAMPLE FIGURES:
Men 196 (49%)
Women 204 (51%)
Democrats 136 (34%)
Republicans 168 (42%)
Independents/Other 96 (24%)
18-29 72 (18%)
30-44 128 (32%)
45-59 124 (31%)
60+ 76 (19%)
White 304 (76%)
Black 33 (8%)
Hispanic 53 (13%)
Other 10 (3%)
QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Mike McCaul? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):
VERY FAV FAV UNFAV VERY UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 11% 34% 33% 10% 12%
FAV UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 45% 43% 12%
MEN 48% 42% 10%
WOMEN 42% 44% 14%
DEMOCRATS 26% 64% 10%
REPUBLICANS 62% 25% 13%
INDEPENDENTS 43% 45% 12%
18-29 43% 46% 11%
30-44 47% 40% 13%
45-59 44% 44% 12%
60+ 46% 42% 12%
QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Larry Joe Doherty? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):
VERY FAV FAV UNFAV VERY UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 10% 32% 26% 8% 24%
FAV UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 42% 34% 24%
MEN 40% 37% 23%
WOMEN 44% 31% 25%
DEMOCRATS 62% 17% 21%
REPUBLICANS 28% 48% 24%
INDEPENDENTS 40% 34% 26%
18-29 45% 30% 25%
30-44 39% 37% 24%
45-59 43% 33% 24%
60+ 42% 35% 23%
QUESTION: If the election for Congress were held today would you vote for Larry Joe Doherty the Democrat or Mike McCaul the Republican?
MCCAUL DOHERTY OTHER UNDECIDED
ALL 46% 42% 4% 8%
MEN 50% 39% 5% 6%
WOMEN 42% 45% 3% 10%
DEMOCRATS 7% 84% 2% 7%
REPUBLICANS 79% 6% 4% 11%
OTHER 45% 44% 6% 5%
18-29 43% 46% 3% 8%
30-44 49% 38% 5% 8%
45-59 45% 44% 5% 6%
60+ 47% 41% 3% 9%
WHITE 54% 36% 5% 5%
BLACK 4% 72% - 24%
HISPANIC 31% 57% 1% 11%
OTHER 35% 52% 1% 12%
QUESTION: If the election for President were held today would you vote for the Democratic ticket of Barack Obama and Joe Biden the Republican ticket of John McCain and Sarah Palin or another candidate?
MCCAIN OBAMA OTHER UNDECIDED
ALL 48% 41% 3% 8%
MEN 52% 38% 4% 6%
WOMEN 44% 44% 2% 10%
DEMOCRATS 8% 84% 2% 6%
REPUBLICANS 81% 5% 3% 11%
OTHER 47% 42% 4% 7%
18-29 44% 46% 3% 7%
30-44 52% 36% 3% 9%
45-59 47% 42% 3% 8%
60+ 49% 40% 2% 9%
WHITE 56% 34% 4% 6%
BLACK 3% 89% - 8%
HISPANIC 30% 52% 1% 17%
OTHER 32% 51% - 17%