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(In the final days of an election, there is so much information from so many races, it's difficult to stay on top of every story and understand the subtle dynamics often at play on the ground. Thankfully, we have an expansive 50-state blogosphere to match our 50-state strategy. Over the last two weeks of the campaign, we've asked leaders of the state blogospheres to provide insight into late developments and share the stories of their states in a series we're calling "Listening to the Locals." SusanG)

   Hello, everybody. My name is Phillip Anderson and I run a site about New York politics called The Albany Project. Though New York is hardly a swing state as Democrats hold a 5-3 registration advantage, an advantage that has surged in recent years, there is indeed much afoot in the Empire State this year. Barack Obama will take our 31 electoral votes by a large margin, we are going to take at least 3 House seats and maybe a 4th, and this is the year that we finally take back our GOP dominated State Senate. The real action is in those Senate races (where we could really use your help), but we'll start with the federal matches because I know that's what so many folks are interested in.

Capsules of four House races, a State Senate overview and profiles of eight top Senate targets follow.

   NY-13: This seat wasn't on anyone's radar before May 1 of this year. That was the day that Rep. "Papa Vino" Fossella was arrested for driving drunk. We then learned that he wasn't kidding about those family values either because the man had not one, but two families. Not only that, but we then witnessed the absolute implosion of the once formidable Staten Island GOP as they scrambled furiously to find someone, anyone to run for the seat. They finally settled on some guy named Bob Straniere that everyone apparently despises. This seat will be won by New York City Councilman Mike McMahon. He's not going to knock your socks off, but he'll be a hell of an improvement over Fossella.

   Awesome local blog you should be reading: NY-13 Blog.

   NY-25: GOP incumbent Jim Walsh bailed on the Iraq War, bailed on Bush and decided to hit the road. Good riddance. This seat will be won by the man who almost took it in 2006, Dan Maffei. Maffei is a strong progressive who is going to make one hell of a Congressman. Keep your eye on Dan. This kid is going places.

   NY-26: Tom Reynolds' retirement set off a rather vicious primary on the Dem side, though the biggest spender in the race, two time loser Crazy ass Jack Davis, is hardly a Dem. The bloodbath between Davis and netroots supported Iraq War vet Jon Powers destroyed both of them, allowing attorney Alice Kryzan to emerge as the Dem pick. She's running against another Iraq vet, one Chris Lee. This one could go either way. I wish I could tll you how this one is going to play out. I can't. It's a total crap shoot. If you can spare the change, Kryzan could really use your help.

   Awesome local blog you should be reading: Rochester Turning.

   NY-29: Netroots rockstar Eric Massa is back for round two and this time he's going to win. Eric was a good candidate last time, but trust me, he's gotten much, much better. "Shotgun" Randy Kuhl (R-Hair Club for Men) is in deep trouble and his "Democrats want Americans to suffer and to hurt" episode ain't helping. It wasn't by mistake that Kuhl ended up as a "goner" on the leaked "death list" memo. Now he's ducking reporters and canceling events, never a good sign. Massa is going to send his sorry ass packing.

   Awesome local blog you should be reading: The Fighting 29th.

   And now to fun stuff, the State Senate races. This is going to be an epic battle, and one we can win. The GOP currently holds a one seat majority in the chamber and they are playing furious defense from Long Island to Lake Erie. You might wonder how New York, a pretty blue state and one that gets bluer by the day, could have State Senate controlled by the GOP. There are a number of reasons and all of them stink. Senate districts in this state are ridiculously gerrymandered. Campaign finance law is a joke in New York. There are districts in upstate New York where prisoners from New York City are counted as residents for the purposes of apportionment. The list goes on and on. The NY GOP has used and twisted every rule in the book to hold on to their doomed majority and incumbency retention on both sides is ridiculous. It is far more likely that a legislator in New York either drops dead or goes to prison than gets defeated at the polls. That's a fact.

   Once we oust the GOP from the Senate, their last state level power center, they aren't coming back for a long, long time, if ever. It's an existential fight for them and they know it. But they can only outrun their own shattered brand and the inevitability of demography for so long. Time's up for them. Here's some of our top tier Senate races, races where you can absolutely help. There are few places where your money and your time go farther or have a bigger bang for the buck than a New York State Senate race. These races have national implications as well. New York is going to lose at least one and probably two House seats after the next census. Would you rather lose say, Eric Massa or wingnut prick Peter King? I thought so. Here we go.

    SD-3: Brookhaven Town Supervisor Brian Foley is running against 36 year incumbent Caesar Trunzo (R-FL) in a race with huge statewide implications. Trunzo is 82 years old, hasn't actually uttered a word on the floor of the Senate in over two years (seriously, no joke) and tends to nap in public (awesome pic at the link, btw). Trunzo probably shouldn't even be driving anymore and he damn sure shouldn't be in the Senate any longer. This is a huge race and one we can win. If you can, please drop some change in Foley's cup. And if you can get to Suffolk County, pick up a walk list. This one is important.

   Awesome local blog you should be reading: Trunzo Watch.

   SD-6 Newcomer Kristen McElroy is running against incumbent Kemp Hannon in what is something of a sleeper race. Very few people are talking about this race, but Hannon is awfully shaky in this suburban district and McElroy is a much better expression of the folks who actually live there. Keep an eye on this race. All the pros are.

   Awesome local blog you should be reading: Nassau GOP Watch

   SD-15: Serph Maltese, the GOP incumbent in this Queens seat, is a scumbag. There's really no other way to put it. There's plenty on the record already - rabidly anti-choice, anti-gay, and typical "family values" hypocrite. But there's more on the way and it will make your stomach churn. Maltese only kept his seat in 2006 by about 800 votes against a nobody from nowhere. This year he faces City Councilman Joe Addabbo. Another huge race and one that could very well flip the Senate.

   Awesome local blogs you should be reading: Lost in the Ozone, Daily Gotham.

   SD-51 : Don Barber is probably my favorite candidate for any office in the state right now. He's a farmer and town official in Caroline, NY. Don is working his ass off in the most ridiculously gerrymandered district in the state, the infamous "Abe Lincoln riding a vacuum cleaner" district. He's running against Insurance Committee chair Jim Seward, a wholly owned subsidiary of the very industry he is supposed to regulate. Don is running on a platform of clean energy, sparking the green collar economy upstate and health care. He effin' rocks. Please, give 'till it hurts. Really. More Don Barbers, please.

   SD-54: Paloma Capanna is running a bad ass grassroots campaign against GOP backbencher Michael Nozzolio. A real tough race, but damn it would be sweet.

   SD-55: Former Bausch and Lomb exec David Nachbar is in a real street fight with incumbent Jim Alesi. Nachbar is extremely bright and actually has created jobs upstate. Both of these concepts are completely foreign to Alesi. This one could be a nail biter. In a just world, it wouldn't be. To say that Nachbar completely outclasses Alesi is a rather large understatement.

   SD-56: Incumbent Joe Robach is yet another fine piece of work. He's a party switcher who was once described to me as "essentially unemployable in the private sector." He's also a pretty miserable human being. He showed up for a special session last year with two black eyes. He got them from the husband of the woman he was having an affair with. The woman also happened to be his employee. He's another family values hypocrite. He's being challenged this cycle by the man who used to hold that seat, Rick Dollinger. The only public polling in this race showed a Robach lead, but my hunch is that this race is actually much closer. The district includes a large part of urban Rochester and this race could all come down to to Obama's GOTV operation in the city. It's going to be a squeaker, but I think we pull this one off. Dollinger could really use your help and the folks of the 56th could really use to be rid of a scumbag like Robach.

   Awesome local blog you should be reading: The Robach Files

   SD-61: This a race for an open seat and one of our best pickup chances statewide. Our guy is retired professional boxer "Baby" Joe Mesi. Mesi, as he likes to remind folks, is undefeated in the ring and he intends to stay that way. The only public poll of this race showed a narrow Mesi lead against GOP hopeful Mike Ranzenhofer. This is a very winnable race and open seats are particularly rare. We need to make the best of them.

   Awesome local blog you should be reading: Buffalo Pundit.

   There ya go. I'm more than happy to stick around and answer any questions you may have or take the heat for not writing about one race or another. This is a watershed year in New York politics and we are busting our asses to make the best of it.

   Read: The Albany Project

   Give: Empire State Blue (State Senate challengers), TAP's House Challengers page.

Originally posted to Daily Kos on Sat Oct 25, 2008 at 06:29 PM PDT.

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Comment Preferences

  •  everyone comes to NY to raise money (43+ / 0-)

    seriously. this is one of those times where we are asking for your help.

    hope all is well wherever you are. we're pedal to the effin' metal here in the empire state.

    forward.

    "after the Rapture, we get all their shit"

    It's time: the albany project.

    by lipris on Sat Oct 25, 2008 at 05:25:28 PM PDT

  •  NY has more than its share of scum bag politician (9+ / 0-)

    and I am sooo happy that Albany is finally going to flip Dem this year.

    When that is done, if we can do something about some of the do-nothing dems in ultra safe congressional seats in a blue America primary.  Like Ed Bomb bomb Iran Townes of Brooklyn, as one example

  •  Yes. (7+ / 0-)

    It would be great if people realized what it would mean for the third-largest state in the country to go blue, really blue. Two words: Wall Street.

    In the unlikely story that is America, there has never been anything false about hope.

    by MBNYC on Sat Oct 25, 2008 at 05:28:51 PM PDT

  •  Who said NY was boring this year? Great update! (12+ / 0-)

    Let's hope NY will get much "bluer".

    Tipped & rec'd.

    The White House will be The People's House--B.Obama

    by Phil S 33 on Sat Oct 25, 2008 at 05:29:53 PM PDT

  •  Question: donate to all or give more to a few? (7+ / 0-)

    Dear Lipris:

    What do recommend?

    I have visions of all my donated money being spent on sending mailings back to me.....no way to opt out on act blue.

    Thanks.

    Media Reform Action Link http://stopbigmedia.com/

    by LNK on Sat Oct 25, 2008 at 05:34:46 PM PDT

  •  I know the State Senate means more but (3+ / 0-)

    as a Schenectady native can you PA just concentrate on some wingnuts in the state George Amedore? Yes there is a humongous majority but how a major upstate NY city get help when it is controlled by such trolls like Tedisco and Amedore? He is one of the most unqualified politicians I have ever seen.  He is not Sarah Palin, based on his bio, he is more like Levi Johnston.  He needs to go and Mark Blanchfield deserves more support.  

    I honestly feel Ed Kosiur should have that assembly seat and the assembly of course ignored it while Tedisco got his little dubious battle one to shut him up.  The blogs could help.

    "An army of principles can penetrate where an army of soldiers cannot." Thomas Paine

    by Cait Strummer on Sat Oct 25, 2008 at 05:38:49 PM PDT

    •  i wish i had more time to pay attention (5+ / 0-)

      to the assembly. the senate really consumes most of my bandwidth. that's where you come in. i'd like to invite you to come post about the races and seats that mean the most to you over at the albany project. no one knows their local scenes better than the folks that live there.

      you'd be doing all of us a great service by telling us all about what's happening in your neck of the woods.

      we'd love to have you post about it.

      "after the Rapture, we get all their shit"

      It's time: the albany project.

      by lipris on Sat Oct 25, 2008 at 05:44:20 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I canvassed for Tonko/Blanchfield (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        lipris

        It was in a very red district and a lot of Amedore signs.  Some of those people like Paul Tonko but a lot are ignoring their union's endorsements of Blanchfield.

        Amedore basically is showing the same commercials as he did a year or so ago.  My candidate will TAX you!  I loathe the man.  He is an opportunist who used the fact his father's business did one of those "Extreme Makeover Home Edition" shows months no... weeks before the campaign.

         He portrays himself as an independent agent of change but honestly the man is an impotent as you could possibly be.  He will probably win as he has the money and Blanchfield had just one commercial that was anti-Amedore that got him in trouble (And when you say something negative about George Jr. he will whine until the cows come home).  There are plenty of negatives to attack George Amedore Jr.  He lives in Schenectady but his HQ for his father's business is in Albany, his houses have been scrutinized by its own inhabitants, the only thing relatively close he was to government prior was on a private school where he never cast a vote, he seemed to leave the industry in the middle of the bubble bursting and you can wonder why that would be.  I could bring up personal matters based on math to indicate his marriage was shot-gun and his education involves one year at a Jimmy Swaggart bible college.  But that is not my problem.

        Amedore is a negative campaigner and one of these cycles if not now it will catch up to him.  His mailers and robocalls in Rotterdam made it seem like Ed Kosiur was placing child abusers in their areas which scared a lot of people.  He is a fear-monger and that should be looked into.

        Blanchfield's campaign only went negative on Amedore over how the guy is not a Assemblyman but just a businessman and opportunist.  Again that got backlash.  Most of his campaign now is reshaping Schenectady but I wonder how effective that is since Kosiur did it as well and people in Rotterdam just do not like Schenectady politicians.  

        "An army of principles can penetrate where an army of soldiers cannot." Thomas Paine

        by Cait Strummer on Sat Oct 25, 2008 at 08:39:15 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Mark Blanchfield is a great guy (5+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Odysseus, RonV, devtob, neroden, Cait Strummer

      and would make a far superior Assemblyman to Amedore.

      The assemlby doesn't get as much attention because it is in more than 2-to-1 Democratic control. Winning seats there simply does not have as big an impact.

      That sad, it sure would be nice to knock of a few folks like Amedore and Tedisco.

      Peace,

      Andrew

    •  If not now, then next time... (5+ / 0-)

      I will echo what Phillip said as a fellow front-pager at TAP. We love to hear from those on the ground and what they are seeing. You can help us (and yourself and your community) by coming to TAP and telling your story about what's going on in your respective Assembly and Senate districts.

      That said, there are some seats I see as seats that aren't so competitive this time around but in two years, that will change. There is one seat that comes to mind: SD-59. I don't think Dale Volker will get knocked off this time around, but in two years I think we can find a strong candidate who will be able to unseat him.

      Tedisco has ambitions. You might see him run for higher office. That's a scary thought. Tedisco is a real tool though and we need to replace him soon.

      Support our troops... not the war.

      by robert harding on Sat Oct 25, 2008 at 06:47:03 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Please! (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        lipris, Andrew C White

        Maybe State Senate if Hugh Farley's idiot son does not succeed him but Tedisco has so much dirt.  He could have easily run for Congress when the race had no sight of Tonko joining the race but he didn't.

        "An army of principles can penetrate where an army of soldiers cannot." Thomas Paine

        by Cait Strummer on Sat Oct 25, 2008 at 07:07:58 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Excellent stuff (6+ / 0-)

    one typo ... you have State Island where you mean Staten

    Where I am, (West Side of Manhattan) it's a sea of blue, but we do have some Republicans to get rid of in NY, even in the city.

  •  If I may be so bold as to add (6+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Odysseus, lipris, RonV, devtob, neroden, Ellicatt

    SD-43: Mike Russo my good friend and colleague to Phillip's list.

    SD-43 is an open seat. It was held by the former Senate Majority Leader Uncle Joe Bruno. Like any good Republican politician, Uncle Joe is under investigation for any number of things they could nail his butt for. Seeing the hand writting on the wall he retired.

    Mike is a long time labor organizer who most recently has been the district director for Congresswoman Kirsten Gillibrand.

    Mike could use some help as the Republicans don't want to be embaressed by losing this seat so all of Uncle Joe's friends have been flushing cash at the hand picked republican candidate for this seat. The same hand picked candidate that was passed over by Uncle Joe in favor of everyone's favorite former Republican Congressman John Sweeney (R-Animal House). These guys have kept this are under their thumb for a long time and we have all suffered as a result.

    Mike has a very good shot to win this seat and keep it for a long, long time. Between him and Kirsten Gillibrand this long-time "conservative republican" district can be transformed into a solid, northeastern Democratic District.

    Please give Mike a little help if you can. Thanks.

    Peace,

    Andrew

    •  indeed. (5+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      RonV, Andrew C White, devtob, Ellicatt, Jimdotz

      a russo win in that district would be awesome.

      good call.

      "after the Rapture, we get all their shit"

      It's time: the albany project.

      by lipris on Sat Oct 25, 2008 at 05:56:55 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Andrew... (5+ / 0-)

      I'm hearing distressing things about the NY 20 race. Internal polls seem to be showing this race to be far closer than I'm comfortable with. Trust fund Treadwell just dumped another $1.5 million of his own money into the race (I think that's around $6 million, so far!!!).

      Recently, I heard it's a single point race. Yesterday, I heard it's almost tied. Do you have any information on the status of this race. I know of no independent polls (and neither do the local media).

      I'd hate to get too complacent.

      "I was so easy to defeat, I was so easy to control, I didn't even know there was a war." -9.75, -8.41

      by RonV on Sat Oct 25, 2008 at 06:44:48 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I have no inside info, (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        RonV, Andrew C White, Cait Strummer

        but my sense is that Gillibrand is really popular, and Treadwell is not.

        Congressional Quarterly has it lean Democratic now.

        The Republicans want to cut YOUR Social Security benefits.

        by devtob on Sat Oct 25, 2008 at 06:55:38 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  That's a damned expensive district (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Odysseus

        And Gillibrand has been rather less than acceptable on crucial issues like warrantless spying on Americans.

        I would put your money into the State Senate, where it will go a lot further, and can go to people you can back wholeheartedly.  Come 2010 we'll redistrict and get better candidates in this area.  $100 to Gillibrand is a drop in the bucket at this point, but to any of the State Senate candidates, it's still a big deal.

        -5.63, -8.10 | Impeach, Convict, Remove & Bar from Office, Arrest, Indict, Convict, Imprison!

        by neroden on Sat Oct 25, 2008 at 07:04:35 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  She also voting against the bailout both times (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          thecount

          Rip her on FISA if you want but she is almost a BDINO.

          "An army of principles can penetrate where an army of soldiers cannot." Thomas Paine

          by Cait Strummer on Sat Oct 25, 2008 at 07:15:25 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Kirsten Gillibrand (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            RonV, dufffbeer, neroden

            is a very fine representative that has done a lot of good things for the moment she got elected. She has been a solid voter on most issues but has voted incorrectly on a couple of important items like FISA. She voted correctly originally but let herself get talked into voting incorrectly by the massive failure of leadership that was the FISA capitulation.

            She also has to be cognizant of the fact that she represents such a republican district and simply cannot be as liberal as I would personally like her to be.

            That said, I do believe that some of the advice she gets from Washington insiders along that line is incorrect and that she can indeed take a stronger, more progressive stance.

            I have no qualms at all about having her as my Representative to Washington and wish we had more like her.

            Peace,

            Andrew

          •  Voting against the bailout was correct. (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            RonV, neroden

            That vote gets her lots of support.

            -7.75 -4.67

            "Freedom's just another word for nothing left to lose."

            by Odysseus on Sat Oct 25, 2008 at 09:59:58 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

      •  NY-20 (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        RonV, neroden, xaxnar, hockeyrules

        is the second most Republican district by enrollment numbers so there can be no getting complacent here under any circumstances.

        I don't know any poll numbers so I can't answer that question directly.

        I can say that you take the Republican enrollment advantage and add a multi-millionaire trust fund baby like Sandy Treadwell and have him in kick in well over $6,000,000 of his own money and it is hardly surprising that he might be making some headway.

        That said, Kirsten Gillibrand has been the hardest working Representative we've ever seen. She has busted her hump to make herself available and responsive to her constituents and it has paid off. She is also a dynamo at fund raising and has kept pace with Treadwell in the dollar department.

        She is also damn talented!

        The Republicans had NY-20 at the top of their target list for district to take back in 2008.

        Despite Treadwell's millions I haven't seen any signs that they still consider it a possible pick-up. Nor do any of the professional prognosticators.

        We cannot take it for granted and in another year Treadwell may have had a real shot at it. But I believe Kirsten is going to be just fine.

        One other thing... a lot, a LOT, of the more conservative Republicans around here do NOT like Sandy Treadwell. They consider him a liberal and blame him as much as Pataki for the mess the Republican party is in in New York. I see as many conservative commentors on local blogs bad mouthing him as bad mouthing Kirsten. I believe they will not pull the lever for him this year in hope of running a super conservative more to their liking in 2010.

        In the meantime, this district, like the rest of upstate, is trending more and more Democratic and the wing nuts do not reflect the values of most folks around here.

        I hope the conservatives do sabatoge the Republicans and stage a take-over. They'll only sink the Republican brand even further.

        Peace,

        Andrew

        •  Well, (3+ / 0-)

          I do take some consolation in the fact that if Treadwell had much support, he wouldn't have to spend so much of his inheritance on this race.

          As you know, Andrew, I'm pretty connected up here with both parties, (after all, it was republicans who put me on the Town Board), so I get info from both directions, and I have to tell you that there is a bit of concern about this race.

          Gillibrand does have a lot of support from republicans. I even know of one local republican  committee chair who resigned over his support for Obama and Kirsten. But, I'm taking nothing for granted.

          Aside, I'm really proud to be sharing the ballot this year with Obama, Biden, and Gillibrand. The local republicans opted not to run a candidate against me, so my victory is assured. But next year, all bets are off.

          Are you ever planning on running for supervisor again?

          "I was so easy to defeat, I was so easy to control, I didn't even know there was a war." -9.75, -8.41

          by RonV on Sat Oct 25, 2008 at 07:33:52 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Ron that's awesome! (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            lipris, RonV, xaxnar

            Good for you. And yes, what an honor.

            We will be discussing our candidates for town election after this one is over.

            By the way, I don't know if our news gets reported up your way but check this out...

            http://eastwickpress.com/...

            Peace,

            Andrew

            •  Very interesting. (0+ / 0-)

              Two things.

              Thomas Spargo (Gardener's lawyer) was a Sweeney operative in Florida in 2000, I think. He also had some integrity issues later on. I don't remember exactly what they were.

              Also, our town is involved in a three way, off year, race for highway superintendent (Due to a resignation). Three republicans are running for the job. One as an independent, one on the party line, and one as a write-in. There should be a story in the Post Star Monday on this. It isn't pretty.

              But, I'm actually supporting one of them. It's kind of a hoot to have his sign mixed up between two Obama signs, a Gillibrand sign, my sign, and Robert Mueller's (Dem for state Supreme Court) sign.

              What a world...

              "I was so easy to defeat, I was so easy to control, I didn't even know there was a war." -9.75, -8.41

              by RonV on Sat Oct 25, 2008 at 08:37:01 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

    •  Russo is being seriously outspent on TV (3+ / 0-)

      by Boss Bruno's designated successor.

      Hopefully his ground game, and another Democratic wave election, will make up for that.

      The Republicans want to cut YOUR Social Security benefits.

      by devtob on Sat Oct 25, 2008 at 06:50:22 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I like Mike... (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      lipris, Andrew C White, devtob

      He live blogged on TAP in early September before he won the Democratic primary. Here's a little taste of Mike:

      Support our troops... not the war.

      by robert harding on Sat Oct 25, 2008 at 06:53:31 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Great post, lipris. TY. (4+ / 0-)

    What gives in NY-03? Mejias didn't mount such a poor challenge last time. I know newcomer Graham Long is giving it a shot--a longshot, as it were--but how come there is not more Dem interest in ousting the last R congressman on the Island? Especially such a total ass as Peter King?

    •  mejias was going to run for hannon's senate seat (7+ / 0-)

      but got muscled out after he pissed off the dems on the nassau county legislature for having, ya know, principles and stuff. i think the lack of a quality challenger to peter "baghdad is just like manhattan" king is a serious recruiting failure.

      that said, there will most likely only be two house GOoPers left in 2010. take a guess as to whose head everyone's attention will be focused...

      king's fucked. in fact, it wouldn't surprise me at all if he calls it quits before the next election.

      "after the Rapture, we get all their shit"

      It's time: the albany project.

      by lipris on Sat Oct 25, 2008 at 06:10:18 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Yeah, It's Time (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Andrew C White, devtob, Cait Strummer

        Here's a picture of Pete King trying to look relevant:

        Pete King needs to retire, like two years ago.

        John McCain to his second wife after she teased him about his hair loss: At least I don't plaster on the makeup like a trollop, you c-nt!

        by Dotty Gale on Sat Oct 25, 2008 at 06:46:43 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Gram lives down there (0+ / 0-)

        She seriously has doubts it will ever go blue and she is hardcore.  

        "An army of principles can penetrate where an army of soldiers cannot." Thomas Paine

        by Cait Strummer on Sat Oct 25, 2008 at 07:16:42 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Oh yeah (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Andrew C White

        And after re-districting, King will not be in such a safe district in 2010.

        www.kingwatch.blogspot.com

        by stjohnixx on Sat Oct 25, 2008 at 07:19:06 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  As a Diaryist with multiple front paged TAP Posts (0+ / 0-)

        I followed Mejias for a long tie now.  He gave a gutsy late entry run to Peter King in 06.  With a Democratic State Senate takeover and only King and McHugh left in Congress, I would not be surprised to see Kings district totally broken into surrounding CD's in the 2012 reapportionment.  McHugh's north country seat is so expansive as to make that type of breaking up difficult but NY does lose two house seats in 2012.  That in mind, recruiting for a district that may not exist but one more cycle could be tough.

    •  Peter King Watch (3+ / 0-)

      Hi, this is John Rennhack from Peter King Watch and alos Nassau GOP Watch. In a year that could be the one where King gets sent home to Seaford, the best that stepped forward was Graham Long. Graham Who? Yeah, that's what everyone south of Glen Cove asks.
      I looked at the race myself but a little too late (March) and of course my wife would gut me with a rusty spoon if I went to DC leaving her with two 5 year olds and a 2 year old built like a tank.
      King (and no one else) is talking baout running for Governor in 2010. That hints that King wants to be closer to home. It's lonely in the NY republican delegation and it's going to get lonlier. King has virtually no clout and it's going to be worse next term.
      To be honest (and god knows I want to stop Peter King Watch) Long will lose bad. It would be nice if he could inflict damage on King and not get destroyed 70-30 but that isn't happening.
      If you live in NY-3, give me some love Nov. 4th and write in my name. Because I'm not happy that Peter King Watch has to go on.

      www.kingwatch.blogspot.com

      by stjohnixx on Sat Oct 25, 2008 at 07:14:27 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  john, btw (2+ / 0-)

        is a a NY blogging rockstar. he runs like a dozen watch sites and even ran for nassau county lege last year.

        the man rules. show him some love.

        "after the Rapture, we get all their shit"

        It's time: the albany project.

        by lipris on Sat Oct 25, 2008 at 07:16:56 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Wow, thanks (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          lipris

          I'm just trying to spread the word and quite frankly it's easier with Philips Albany Project. NY media picks up stories posted to the site. When progressive blogs can drive the stories to the mainstream media, that is a success.
          I live the the 'heart of darkness' in Massapequa which still is a republican strong-hold. I may mot win right now locally but I get a great soapbox everytime I do. As i write this, my good friend Keith Scalia is running for the NYS Assembly in the 12thAD where Massapequa rules the vote. Keith is running a clean money campaign accepting no PAC money and no individual donations more than $20. His opponent is Joe Saladino who is considered the Ted Baxter of the Assembly. His claim to fame is passing a single bill which designates an official state salt-water fish. In his bill he writes "It is one of the most tasty marine species to consume." Yes, that is in the bill. Scalia may not win but he never took money from a corrupt sub-prime lender like Saladino did.

          www.kingwatch.blogspot.com

          by stjohnixx on Sat Oct 25, 2008 at 07:43:36 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  "Long is the face of LI's next generation.... (0+ / 0-)

        of political leaders" - Newsday

        http://www.youtube.com/...

  •  Down the road from my Dutchess county (6+ / 0-)

    house are two dueling neighbors not a quarter mile from me who have at least a half dozen signs each next to the road in front of their houses:

    Neighbor #1 has McCain, Treadwell, Saland

    Neighbor #2 has Obama, Gillibrand, Dow.

    The first guy is the town bully. Notoriously nasty even to other Republicans in town.

    They're on 1/2 acre town plots. Must make for interesting property disputes.

    BTW Neighbor #2 is not even on the top 10 list of the  "First to Post Obama Lawn Signs" competition in my town. I've weekended here for 15 years now. This is the first election cycle I've seen a sign for the Democratic Presidential candidate in this surly Republican outpost.

    Change is in the air! Even in mostly Democratic New York.

    McCain / Palin: Not Ready on Day 1461

    by Glinda on Sat Oct 25, 2008 at 06:16:19 PM PDT

  •  I'm in NY-29, but in the NY-26 media market. (7+ / 0-)

    I am really impressed with the two separate sets of commercials that the DCCC is running on behalf of Kryzan and Massa.  (of course they are negative ads regarding Chris Lee and Randy Kuhl!)  

    First time I've ever seen participation on the behalf of the DCCC for running NY-29 commercials in this area, and it makes my heart feel good to see these.  And I'll tell you - they are running very frequently, too - sometimes two to three times an hour!  Haven't seen one Randy Kuhl commercial run in this market yet, and haven't received any mailers from him yet, either.  By this time in 2006, we had received a good number of them (I have a registered republican in this house and I imagine they are still on a republican mailing list.)  I am getting the anti-Massa robocalls, though.

    Been seeing the Joe Mesi commercials, too, and they are pretty good.  I'm hoping that he is able to win this one!

    My senator is Catherine Young.  A story broke yesterday from a Buffalo station about a Youth Residential (detention) facility in this district that is being kept open even though there are no offenders being housed there now.  It is costing taxpayers over a million/year to keep it open, and they showed file footage of Young, I believe under a year ago, fighting and taking credit for keeping this facility open when it was on the schedule for closure.  I don't know if this will hurt her in the voting booth, but it might sway a few to not cast their vote for her in light of this development.

    Excuse me for speaking while you're interrupting. (James Carville's response to an obnoxious repub, 9/7/08)

    by Ellicatt on Sat Oct 25, 2008 at 06:23:21 PM PDT

  •  A map of state senate districts (8+ / 0-)

    is here

    you can get assembly districts, senate districts, or congressional districts.

  •  And Ken Dow?... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    devtob

    We're fairly certain that the almost twenty years of crime prevention with Saland has it covered. I can think of no less controversial vote than against child molesters. Saland has made a career of it.
         Politeness, n. The most acceptable hypocrisy.
    Ambrose Bierce, The Devil's Dictionary

  •  Great Post. Great Site. (5+ / 0-)

    The Albany Project site is really good.  Thanks for all the hard work.

  •  No love for James Gennaro? (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Andrew C White, devtob

    Excellent Post. Thanks so much for your hard work.

    My only criticism is that you left James Gennaro off of your list of state senate races.

    I encourage everyone to donate and volunteer their time in the last 10 days leading up to elections. These state senate seats are hugely important, especially to us living in the city.

  •  Odd bit of trivia --- the most gerrymandered CD (8+ / 0-)

    There is a law that you have to describe every congressional district in words --- you can't just draw a map.  So, it's 'go 1/2 mile north, turn east, go 1/4 mile east, turn south ...' etc.

    The district that takes the longest to describe is NY-12 (Velazquez).  It's in 3 counties (what NYCers call boroughs) dipping into Manhattan twice.

    A nice map is here

    •  nydia is my congresswoman (5+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Andrew C White, devtob, lali, plf515, timewarp

      and, i'm telling you, throws the best holiday party in the world every december at an old polish union hall in greenpoint, brooklyn. that district spans three boroughs and the mix folks at that party looks like the beginning of a joke.

      it's honestly the best party in NYC.

      "after the Rapture, we get all their shit"

      It's time: the albany project.

      by lipris on Sat Oct 25, 2008 at 06:43:02 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I am not sure the text length is the best metric. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      plf515

      ... Since I think NY-28 has a strong case for being the most ridiculous district in the state, though, well, the competition is indeed stiff (my home district, NY-22, is surely worth at least some consideration).

      To those that don't know, the 28th district includes much of the city/urban areas of Buffalo and Rochester and connects them with a strip of land along the lake.

      There is a map in dKosopedia:
      http://www.dkosopedia.com/...

      Obviously, it's a very Democratic district, and is represented by the awesome Louise Slaughter.

      As a bit of counterpoint to this district is NY-29, which is the site of one of the featured races of the top post...

      The district, as you can see here:
      http://www.dkosopedia.com/...
      combines the S and SE suburbs of the city of Rochester with a good chunk of the state's Southern Tier --- not a very natural mixture, either. This is also, IIRC, the most Republican district of the state, and this makes the possibility of Massa winning it for the good guys even sweeter.

      Insofar as I may be heard by anything, which may or may not care what I say... (from "Creatures of Light and Darkness", R. Zelazny)

      by SadEagle on Sat Oct 25, 2008 at 07:35:00 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  What about SD-43? (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Odysseus, Andrew C White, devtob, neroden

    Andrew, Care to comment on what is going on in the 43rd, Joe Bruno's former district.  I haven't kept up on this, but from what I know, it could be a win for the Dem given enough time and money.

    In SD-51, Barber could win.  It would be a big help if the campaign could raise another $30k.  The ROI on that thirty grand would be better, by far, than anything else available out there.  

    •  SD-43... (5+ / 0-)

      Mike Russo is our Democratic contender in SD-43. He's a strong candidate with a strong union background and experience working as district director for Rep. Kirsten Gillibrand. He knows the district very well.

      He's up against an assemblyman, Roy McDonald. He's a tough Republican to take on because of the district's enrollment and because this is Bruno's old seat. I believe the GOP has helped McDonald out because this is a seat they want to keep.

      I agree with you on Barber. Barber is one of my favorite candidates of this cycle. That race is closer than it looks. Barber is just one of those guys. He has that down-to-earth mentality that really resonates with voters.

      Support our troops... not the war.

      by robert harding on Sat Oct 25, 2008 at 06:50:30 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  wow!! You are SO on top of what's happening! (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    lipris, Andrew C White, devtob

    What a fantastic post - thank you!

  •  Greg Ball - 99TH Ass. Dist. (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    devtob, timewarp, thecount

    I'd dearly like to see this sleazeball lose his seat in the 99th Assembly district.  The Republican he defeated in the primary is running on the Dem ticket against him, so hopefully there will be enough crossover to send this scumbag back home.

  •  census (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    lipris, Andrew C White, devtob

    "Would you rather lose say, Eric Massa or wingnut prick Peter King? I thought so."

    Who says King will be around by 2012?  McHugh might not even be safe by then.  We might not have a Republican seat to lose.

  •  Listen to the locals, NY (to include NYC) (4+ / 0-)

    How about crushing the Bloomberg movement while we're at it.  This man has single handidly with is complicent TM, overridden the will of the people, run ruff shod over democracy and done nothing to improve life for modern day NY.  Unless you make $7million a year.  

  •  all but... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    timewarp

    I have given to many of the named candidates, and it is critical to me as a NYer, a Dem and someone involved in government at the state level for a Dem controlled state senate.  Getting rid of Bruno was sweet, but not enough.  However, under no circumstances could I ever give a penny to that phony, faker and in my opinion less than honest Joe Mesi.  So, while I hope the rest of the Dems win, and I am doing my part, that is one I will sit out.  

    •  to each his own (0+ / 0-)

      i've actually talked to him, not expecting much, and was quite impressed.

      "after the Rapture, we get all their shit"

      It's time: the albany project.

      by lipris on Sat Oct 25, 2008 at 07:07:47 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  i like mesi. seems a good guy (0+ / 0-)

        but i am worried about that PAC thing.  and the way he answered worried me.  any links on him that could help me feel better about him?

        Broadband vs Dial up

        by ejpoeta on Sat Oct 25, 2008 at 07:33:22 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  the PAC thing? (0+ / 0-)

          are you talking about golisano?

          "after the Rapture, we get all their shit"

          It's time: the albany project.

          by lipris on Sat Oct 25, 2008 at 07:54:44 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  yep. not sure what to think of it. (0+ / 0-)

            it sounds kind of fishy to me, but when he was asked about it there was something about how he responded that gave me pause.  thanks to the internet and the bs that has been going on in ads for the past... gosh seems like forever!!  i tend to be wary of any ads i see on tv.  not sure where to look on this, though.  the supposed check golisano gave....  to say for mesi campaign.  if they were trying to do something illegal, would they put it right on a check like that??  

            Broadband vs Dial up

            by ejpoeta on Sun Oct 26, 2008 at 06:52:34 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Golisano supports whoever he feels like.... (0+ / 0-)

              ...and appears to do so on a policy basis rather than a personal enrichment basis.

              I don't think there's anything wrong with taking Golisano's money.  Adopting Golisano's occasionally crackpot policies lock stock and barrel would be bad, obviously -- but Mesi doesn't seem to be doing that.

              http://www.actblue.com/page/nysenatechallengers

              by neroden on Sun Oct 26, 2008 at 11:48:57 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

            •  mesi and his campaign did nothing illegal (0+ / 0-)

              this is just a stunt by the republican board commish to try and drum up something the week before the election.  Galisano is not coordinating with Mesi's campaign at all.  Joe is proud to have a broad coalition of supporters, including Mr. Galisano. Galisano isn't running the campaign or even talking to the Mesi folks.  Nobody is dumb enough for that.

              The real problem is the PAC, Citizen's for Fiscal Responsibility, that can't seem to get their act together and get their filings correct.

              They basically screwed the Mesi campaign by not having this out when the check game in months ago.

              Oh well what can you do.  Of course the conservative press jumped on it but Mesi took the high road by talking about the issues, and I think voters will respond to that.

              check out this ranzenhofer blog some guy started, pretty funny.

              http://wallstreetranzenhofer.wordpre...

  •  Great work, lipris! People, listen up. (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    lipris, filby

    This is great info for all who care about a Blue New York!

    You can steal our signs, but you can't steal our vote! OBAMA/BIDEN '08!

    by Blue Waters Run Deep on Sat Oct 25, 2008 at 07:38:39 PM PDT

  •  Mike Russo TV ad (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    lipris

    Mike Russo for New York State Senate 43rd District.

  •  Jeez, Treadwell having his daughter do ads (0+ / 0-)

    Yes she is a full-grown woman but it just reeks of desperation.

    But I love this line:
    "This is not about the past, it is about our future."

    Cry me a river Treadwells, you brought up Gillibrand's connection to Phillip Morris with an absolutely sleazy commercial.  That is fair but your support of GWB, your more than generous donations to his campaigns, and your figure-head job under the Pataki administration that was a pile of nothing is off-limits?

    "An army of principles can penetrate where an army of soldiers cannot." Thomas Paine

    by Cait Strummer on Sat Oct 25, 2008 at 10:10:28 PM PDT

  •  I don't get to say it enough on your site. (0+ / 0-)

    Great Work with TAP, you are a very important part of NY politics and all of the readers appreciate your hard work.
    Site maintenance is hard enough, but you are always running around to places doing great work.

    Great Recap, keep strong.
    Your work on campaigns like NYBri and this site continually show your dedication.

    On another note I think NY-20 is a republican sleeper.
    I've seen lots of signs on the road for
    Gillibrand has hard, good work. Just not the record i was hoping to see.
    Even in my own district of NY-19 (freshmen John Hall), I've been a bit disappointed by some of his votes, i believe the leadership is collaring them a bit too much.
    But the race to get a republican to run there was pitiful. I've nearly forgot who is running (conservative Kieran Lalor). He spoke at my college (marist college) to a crowd of... 5, including myself.

    Grassroots from the NY-19.

    by MrMacMan on Sun Oct 26, 2008 at 04:03:36 AM PDT

  •  Brian Foley rally today in Mastic LI (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    lipris

    Senator Chuck Schumer will be there to endorse Brian at 12:45 pm.  Call foleyforsenate HQ for directions and details.

  •  Another point.. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    devtob

    Not sure if anyone mentioned it yet, (I didn't read all the comments), but winning those 4 house seats means Repubs. will only hold THREE seats throughout the state.

    In addition to the ramifications for Congress itself, the House races, and to a similar extent, the state senate races, also mean that republicans will continue to not have a "bench" for statewide office for years to come.  

    New York in a key example of how there is always more work to be done!  And Dems back home are doing a great job!

  •  you guys will love this ranzenhofer blog i found (0+ / 0-)

    Check this out, this blog just lays into ranzenhofer for taking downstate money and then saying Mesi is the "downstate" guy.  the guy behind the site seems to know his shit and to have done the research.

    http://wallstreetranzenhofer.wordpre...

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