Today's Daily Kos Research 2000 tracking poll has Obama leading McCain 51-40. All trackers are data from three days to five days prior to posting, with the R2K numbers from today (yesterday's numbers in parentheses) and the other trackers from yesterday (previous day's data). Data is updated as new information becomes available. Daily posting is approximately 7:30 am EDT. LV=likely voter, RV=registered voter.
Nate Silver (fivethirtyeight.com) wrote up a tracking poll primer covering the eight available trackers. It includes sample size, time of publication and quirks, as well as Nate's opinion of the trackers. Recommended.
Obama McCain MoE +/- RV/LV
Today
Research 2000: 51 (52) 40 (40) 3 LV
Reuters/Zogby: 49 (51) 44 (42) 2.9 LV
Rasmussen: 52 (52) 44 (45) 2 LV
Diageo/Hotline: 50 (50) 42 (43) 3.4 LV
Gallup: 51 (51) 42 (42) 2 RV See also the LV I and LV II numbers
IBD/TIPP: 47 (46) 43 (42) 3.3 LV alternate link
ABC/WaPo: 52 (53) 45 (44) 3 LV
On successive individual days in the R2K poll (different than the topline, which is a combined three day sample), Obama was up +14 Thurs, +11 Friday and +9 Sat.
Both Zogby and R2K show slight McCain movement, but despite Zogby's breathless "it's getting CLOSER!", it's not clear that that's true in any meaningful way.
[Added] From Mark Blumenthal:
As regular Pollster commenter Thatcher points out via email, single day results of 54%, 50% and 49% for Obama cannot possibly average to 49.4%. What is more likely is that Obama received 54% on Wednesday's calling, 50% on Thursday and 49% on both Friday and Saturday. Those numbers would be consistent with today's numbers and would tend to explain the gradual rise and fall in Obama's margin on Zogby's poll over the last week. More important: The story here is less likely a "tightening" race than a regression to Zogby's mean after an outlier result in Obama's favor Wednesday night.
Since this seems to be a 7-8 point race right now, I'd expect all the polls to start converging by next weekend. However, since some are using a 2004 electorate model (Zogby, IBD/TIPP, Gallup traditional), we may see tightening faster in those. Since we all expect tightening of some sort as those last few undecideds decide, at least in some polls, be prepared for the "It's tightening!" headlines. A close race is good for ratings.
This is the trackers-only pollster.com graph from last evening:
Here are the R2K internals for party ID and independents:
Here are some recent polling highlights you might not have seen.
From Democracy Corps, polling evidence that Republicans are different than Democrats and independents:
- While a sizeable majority of voters say Republicans have lost in 2006 and 2008 because they have been "too conservative," a sizeable plurality of Republicans say, it is because they have "not been conservative enough."
- Over three-quarters of Republicans say Palin was good choice, while a majority of the electorate says the opposite.
- Two-thirds of Republicans say McCain has not been aggressive enough, but a majority of voters think they have been too aggressive.
- Looking to the future, a large majority of Republicans say the party needs to "move more to the right and back to conservative principles," while an even larger majority of all voters say, it should move to the "center to win over moderate and independent voters."
- Finally, almost 60 percent of Republicans say "if Barack Obama is elected, he will lead the country down the wrong path and Republicans should oppose his plans," while 70 percent of all voters say they "should give him the benefit of the doubt and help him achieve his plans."
From Diageo/Hotline:
- The IL Sen. has opened up a sizeable lead on who would best manage U.S. energy policies. Obama leads 51-36%; one week ago, he led 45-40%. Obama's 15% margin is his largest lead on energy since the survey completed 10/10.
- After McCain made some gains this week among men, Obama is back on top. The Dem nominee now leads men by 4%, not far off his 2% margin one week ago (in the surveyed completed 10/17). Among women, Obama maintains last week's double-digit lead.
Chris Cillizza (on the ABC/WaPo poll):
In the latest iteration of the Washington Post/ABC News tracking poll, Barack Obama carries an 18-point edge over John McCain when voters are asked which of the two men "better understands the problems of people like you."
Fifty-five percent of the overall sample chose Obama while 37 percent opted for McCain --- numbers essentially unchanged from polling conducted by the Post/ABC as far back as early summer.
Given that gap, it's no surprise that McCain has relied heavily on the now infamous "Joe the Plumber" in the closing moments of the campaign. The image of McCain fighting for Joe and others like him is the campaign's attempt to show voters that the Arizona senator not only understands the economy but also empathizes with the plight of the average voter.
Finally, from Newsweek, Palin's "inevitability" in 2012 has hit a minor iceberg: