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Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 10/20-23. Likely voters. MoE 5% (No trend lines)

Diaz-Balart (R) 45
Martinez (D) 44

Early voting (17 percent of sample)

Diaz-Balart (R) 42
Martinez (D) 55

Damn -- this isn't just about the toplines, which have Martinez well-positioned to take this thing (with Rep. Diaz-Balart well-under 50 percent). Look at those early voting numbers -- Martinez is banking a nice cushion of votes and amassing a nice advantage heading into Election Day. And this is a rapidly changing district. Check out the voter registration numbers from two years ago, compared to today:

Party        Nov-06
REP        129,302  42.44%
DEM        101,156  33.20%
Other       70,927  23.28%

Total 304,609

Party        Today
REP        132,531  38.80%
DEM        121,988  35.70%
OTHER       86,767  25.40%

Total: 341,286

What was a 9-point Republican district is now a 3-point district.

Obama has a decent lead in the toplines, and a huge lead in the early voting, in a district Bush won 57-43 in 2004:

McCain (R) 45
Obama (D) 50

Early voting

McCain (R) 42
Obama (D) 55

Raul Martinez will pick up this seat, and Obama will win the district on his way to winning the entire state. Here's the district (click on the little "+" sign to zoom in this tiny sliver of a distict), while crosstabs are below the fold.

On the web:
Raul Martinez for Congress

FL-21 CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT POLL – OCTOBER 2008
                                                                 
This survey was conducted by Research 2000 of Rockville, Maryland. A total of 400 likely voters in the Eighteenth Congressional District were interviewed by telephone between October 20 and October 23, 2008.

Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges was utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the district. Quotas were assigned to reflect the voter registration of distribution by district.

The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 5% percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the “true” figure would fall within that range if the entire population were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as for gender or party affiliation.


SAMPLE FIGURES:

Men                  194 (48%)
Women                206 (52%)

Democrats            168 (42%)
Republicans          156 (39%)
Independents/Other    76 (19%)

18-29                 72 (18%)
30-44                116 (29%)
45-59                124 (31%)
60+                   88 (22%)

White                148 (37%)
Hispanic             204 (51%)
Black                 32 (8%)
Other                 16 (4%)

Voted                 68 (17%)
Not Voted            332 (83%)


QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Lincoln Diaz-Balart? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):

                 VERY FAV       FAV        UNFAV     VERY UNFAV    NO OPINION

ALL                 11%         35%         31%          6%         17%

                   FAV         UNFAV       NO OPINION

ALL                 46%         37%         17%

MEN                 49%         35%         16%
WOMEN               43%         39%         18%

DEMOCRATS           24%         59%         17%
REPUBLICANS         72%         12%         16%
INDEPENDENTS        42%         41%         17%

18-29               42%         41%         17%
30-44               47%         36%         17%
45-59               44%         39%         17%
60+                 51%         33%         16%


QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Raul Martinez? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):

                 VERY FAV       FAV        UNFAV     VERY UNFAV    NO OPINION

ALL                 11%         33%         29%          7%         20%

                   FAV         UNFAV       NO OPINION

ALL                 44%         36%         20%

MEN                 41%         40%         19%
WOMEN               47%         32%         21%

DEMOCRATS           62%         18%         20%
REPUBLICANS         24%         57%         19%
INDEPENDENTS        45%         34%         21%

18-29               48%         32%         20%
30-44               42%         38%         20%
45-59               46%         33%         21%
60+                 40%         41%         19%


QUESTION: If the election for Congress were held today would you vote for Raul Martinez the Democrat or Lincoln Diaz-Balart the Republican?

                   DIAZ-BALART MARTINEZ    OTHER       UNDECIDED  

ALL                 45%         44%          1%         10%

VOTED               42%         55%         3%
NOT VOTED           46%         42%          1%

MEN                 48%         43%          1%          8%
WOMEN               42%         45%          1%         12%

DEMOCRATS           10%         81%         -            9%
REPUBLICANS         83%          5%          1%         11%
INDEPENDENTS        44%         43%          2%         11%

18-29               40%         49%          1%         10%
30-44               47%         41%          1%         11%
45-59               42%         47%          1%         10%
60+                 51%         39%         -           10%

WHITE               42%         45%          1%         12%
HISPANIC            56%         35%          1%          8%
BLACK                7%         84%         -            9%
OTHER               21%         71%          1%          7%


QUESTION: If the election for President were held today would you vote for the Democratic ticket of Barack Obama and Joe Biden the Republican ticket of John McCain and Sarah Palin or another candidate?

                   OBAMA       MCCAIN      OTHER       UNDECIDED  

ALL                 50%         45%          3%          2%

VOTED               55%         42%         3%
NOT VOTED           49%         46%          3%

MEN                 47%         49%          3%          1%
WOMEN               53%         41%          3%          3%

DEMOCRATS           85%         10%          2%          3%
REPUBLICANS         13%         83%          3%          1%
OTHER               52%         44%          3%          1%

18-29               55%         41%          3%          1%
30-44               48%         47%          3%          2%
45-59               52%         42%          3%          3%
60+                 45%         51%          2%          2%

Originally posted to Daily Kos on Sun Oct 26, 2008 at 12:45 PM PDT.

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Comment Preferences

  •  This might be a dumb question (0+ / 0-)

    since I read this site daily, but will we see tallies of all early voting states going into election day?

    Under FDR, "the only thing we have to fear is fear itself." Under Bush, "Run for your lives!!!!" Relentless!

    by ablington on Sun Oct 26, 2008 at 12:47:18 PM PDT

  •  but, but.... McCain guarantees victory./ (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    JML9999

    "Four seconds is the longest wait " -Sleater-Kinney

    by delphil on Sun Oct 26, 2008 at 12:48:28 PM PDT

  •  We simply MUST get rid of Diaz-Balart. (5+ / 0-)

    Blech!

  •  ignore early voting (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Texican, tzager

    It's nice to see the stats, but consider this:

    every person who early votes is someone who WON'T be voting on election day.  In other words, there is a chance we are seeing historic blowouts for Obama, and there is an equally likely chance that Obama's results are just being 'front-loaded'.  

    So get out, vote early, keep positive, and don't focus so much on early results.

    At best, the early voting is showing that we have the enthusiasm and organization on our side (which is good).

    •  That doesn't make any sense (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      ablington, lauramp, sulthernao, tzager

      If you bank so many early votes no matter what the turnout on election day it could easily be assumed that the early vote margin will be so large that it can't be overcome.

      Also, isn't early voting good so that those that are casual voters who don't like long lines won't have to wait as long if so many people have voted already?  

      In CA Obama started to creep up in the polls right before the primaries but HRC had built up such an early vote margin that no matter how big his turnout was on election day he couldn't overcome her.

      Will John McCain and Sarah Palin enslave my people?

      by around the way girl on Sun Oct 26, 2008 at 12:54:41 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I may have not been clear (0+ / 0-)

        Yes, voting early is good, I just meant that REPORTS of early voting aren't probably that big of a deal, aside from illustrating our organizational and enthusiasm.

        I mean, I'd hate to see people thinking it's in the bank, only to realize that every one who WAS going to vote ALREADY DID vote.

        •  What asking them about early voting will do (0+ / 0-)

          is change the likely voter model. So while we shouldn't get excited about Early Voting (after all these people would most likely vote anyway), pollsters should take it into account into their model. We shouldn't bank on it to win us anything, but it can be a good indicator for success.

    •  people in Florida (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      lauramp, tzager

      are passionate about this election. Have you seen the lines? I live in FL-21 and I've never seen anything like this. It is amazing. People drive up to the precinct and are not intimidated by the lines. Most times they leave. Not this year.

      This passion will continue on Nov. 4. Some people wait just for the election day thrill. I wanted to do that, but didn't want to risk conflicts with my work schedule.

      Plus, the campaigns have an idea of just who has voted and can target the ones who have yet to vote to ensure they get to the polls. The Obama/Biden team is EXTREMELY aggressive with the calls. They bug the hell outta you to go vote.

      -7.38, -5.23 I voted for Barack Obama at 8:31 a.m. EDT on Oct. 24. What about you? Go Obama/Biden 2008!

      by CocoaLove on Sun Oct 26, 2008 at 01:41:32 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  yeah (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        glassbeadgame, sulthernao

        my comment was confusing.  Of course go vote early, it is extremely important.  

        I was just warning about extrapolating early results to final results, which is dangerous as every early vote is one less person who is voting on election day, and we could just be more 'front-loaded' the the other side.

        •  front-loading? (0+ / 0-)

          I thought about that briefly, but the Obama people are very aggressive about finding voters. The precincts will be crowed Nov. 4 as well. Hopefully there will be less of a circus than is usually the case.

          -7.38, -5.23 I voted for Barack Obama at 8:31 a.m. EDT on Oct. 24. What about you? Go Obama/Biden 2008!

          by CocoaLove on Sun Oct 26, 2008 at 02:06:20 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  i hope so (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            glassbeadgame

            no, actually I believe so, but I don't think there is any data to support it yet.

            In other words, if the state poll says Obama+3, but the early voting is breaking Obama+12, it is much more likely that the end result will be be closer to O+3, because that is what the data says about actual voter intent across the state.

            Similarly, an early tally that says O+10 in a state that is polling M+3, likely means that McCain still has a good chance to win the state, regardless of early voting, unless the early numbers discourage Republican turnout.

            The circus-reducing aspect is probably the most important, followed by the fact that banking early makes it harder to steal or disenfranchise.

            What good early voting numbers say is that it gives us a better chance at meeting our polling expectation, or exceeding it by few points, rather than coming up a few points short of it as in some prior elections (like Ohio 2004).  Certainly that can make the difference, so that is why early voting is important, but those changes are within the margin or error of the polling, and not indicated by some of these early voting numbers.

  •  Check out FL-03 (0+ / 0-)

    Only one vote in the 2006 House race?

  •  Well, I certainly hope you're right, Kos (0+ / 0-)

    If we manage to take this one and get Garcia in too, I'll be pretty damn satisfied with our performance in Florida.  Taddeo would be "da dagger," as they say in Street Hoops, but I'm not getting my hopes up.

    •  Taddeo has the best registration splits (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      JesusFists

      but by far trails the most in the polls. Any good explanation for that?

      (-2.38, -3.28) Independent thinker

      by TrueBlueDem on Sun Oct 26, 2008 at 01:03:55 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Ileana's voting record (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Limelite

        is moderate compared with the Diaz-Balart brothers. Her voting record is more friendly on GLBT and environmental issues. I believe her district includes Key West. Someone will chime in if that is incorrect.

        -7.38, -5.23 I voted for Barack Obama at 8:31 a.m. EDT on Oct. 24. What about you? Go Obama/Biden 2008!

        by CocoaLove on Sun Oct 26, 2008 at 01:44:32 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  You're Right (0+ / 0-)

          Florida's 18th congressional district. The district includes in Miami Dade County -- part of Homestead, part of Miami, and part of Princeton Goulds and in Monroe County -- Key West, Lower Keys, Middle Keys, and Upper Keys.  govtrak.us

          When she "campaigns" she sounds like she has only one issue -- Cuba.  She's the ranking Repub. on Foreign Affairs Committee.  But in Congress she's as disappointing heir to the late lamented Claude Pepper because she's not terribly effective vis a vis initiating and sponsoring legislation that has anything to do with the immediate interests and needs of her constituents.

          They burn our children in their wars and grow rich beyond the dreams of avarice.

          by Limelite on Sun Oct 26, 2008 at 01:58:50 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  I feel good when Kos gets Wonky confident (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ablington, JesusFists
  •  Ya know? (0+ / 0-)

    It means something to me when Kos extrapalates an Obama victory base on trends within a specific Florida county.

    This is what is called JOURNALISM. Rare, I know. But it's out there.

  •  Charlie Cook said on MTP that he's getting (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    panicbean

    reports that AA turnout in early voting states have reached the 95%(!) threshold.

    I doubt the other Dem demographics are far behind, so I predict that when it is all said and done the Obama early voting GOTV machine is what won us the election. It's a juggernaut no one saw coming.

    This one is voting for That One

    by Jeremy10036 on Sun Oct 26, 2008 at 12:55:10 PM PDT

  •  I Live in the area and (0+ / 0-)

    I see lots of Negative ads against Raul Martinez from both Diaz B. and the RNC. They are pretty tough. I don't see as many ads against Lincoln. I don't think this a lock for us yet. The sample in the poll seems a lil heavier on the Dem. side. It's gonna be CLOSE.

    •  hmmm (0+ / 0-)

      I see lots of ads against the Diaz-Balarts, mostly from the DCCC. Raul runs a lot of his own as well.

      God knows I don't need to see any more. Nearly all the ads are nasty as hell. None of them talk about what either candidate will do for the district. It's more about who is the most corrupt.

      Blech.

      -7.38, -5.23 I voted for Barack Obama at 8:31 a.m. EDT on Oct. 24. What about you? Go Obama/Biden 2008!

      by CocoaLove on Sun Oct 26, 2008 at 01:47:58 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  People are reacting negatively to those ads (0+ / 0-)

      Rep family members are appalled by them and are leaning Martinez.  My mom voted Obama/Martinez last fri. My staunch rep mother in law is voting Obama/Taddeo this week.

  •  The maps are very (0+ / 0-)

    neat and cool.  Thank you for them.

    Oh, Snap! (I promise to only use this phrase wisely. Oh snappilicious, snap snap, I can't help it.)

    by lalo456987 on Sun Oct 26, 2008 at 12:56:39 PM PDT

  •  Pensacola News Journal endorsed Obama today. (5+ / 0-)

    I live in Republican lalaland and this is going to deifinitly piss off the natives, but I think they wrote a wonderful endorsement and it made me very happy to read it.

    For president of the U.S.

    The Editorial Board feels the choice is clear: Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois is our recommendation for president of the United States.

    We have watched Obama run an impressive campaign, responsive to the unfolding economic crisis, while McCain's offers little more than that he is not George Bush.

    Obama has attracted some of the country's brightest minds, including investor Warren Buffett, Google CEO Eric Schmidt, former Secretary of State Colin Powell, and Paul Volcker, who was reappointed as chairman of the Federal Reserve by Ronald Reagan. McCain populated his campaign with Washington lobbyists.

    This is the panhandle!  40 miles from the Alabama state line.

    Stay posted for news of riots and lynchings in the public square.  :)

    Good feet giving up good boots. http://www.bringthemhomenow.org/

    by panicbean on Sun Oct 26, 2008 at 12:57:21 PM PDT

    •  I Lived in Pensacola -- Once (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      panicbean

      while Spouse attended flight school at NAS Pensacola.  All I got there was pneumonia.

      We left as soon as possible.

      They burn our children in their wars and grow rich beyond the dreams of avarice.

      by Limelite on Sun Oct 26, 2008 at 02:19:32 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  My Favorite Parts of the Endorsement (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      panicbean

      And so we ask: Where is the McCain who warned that President Bush's tax cuts, without spending cuts, risked creating the deficits that followed? He now embraces them. Where is the McCain who once spoke with authority and reason on immigration reform?

      "We do not torture,'' John McCain famously, and courageously, said. But he now supports a presidential veto of an anti-torture law.

      Meanwhile, it is Barack Obama who has become the leader.

      They burn our children in their wars and grow rich beyond the dreams of avarice.

      by Limelite on Sun Oct 26, 2008 at 02:21:27 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Just curious (0+ / 0-)

    Do you think the disparity between toplines and early voting is primarily because Obama supporters are more excited about voting and more likely to vote early? I know that, regardless, good turnout at early voting is going to benefit Obama. But, I'm wondering if those exit polls are a sign that Novemeber 4th is going to be far more devasating to the right than most of the pundits are predicting?

  •  obamas lead (0+ / 0-)

    Im not as confident that Obama is more than 5 points ahead.Most of the polling is using heavy Dem weighting.If you look at the internals and use the 2006 and 2004 models its still much tighter than we are led to believe.

  •  Try this code Markos! (0+ / 0-)

    <object type="application/x-shockwave-flash" height="390" width="600" data="http://images.dailykos.com/map/electionEmbed.swf?autoPlayOn=0&mapMode=House&autoStateI
    ndex=0&autoDistrictIndex=0&currentElectionYear=2008&rootDirectory=http://images.dailykos
    .com/map/"></object>

    Where mapMode is House, Senate, Governor or left off for Presidential races.

    autoStateIndex is an array of states where 0 is for Alabama and each state following is another number up (so Connecticut should be 6 I think).  

    autoDistrictNumber allows you to flag a particular district, with the number being district number - 1

    DailyKos Election Day Results Live Blogging: Election Night Watch

    by Tomtech on Sun Oct 26, 2008 at 01:37:36 PM PDT

  •  We need a poll of AZ! (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    motherwolfe

    I have seen 2 polls and rumors of a third showing a close race.

  •  Markos et al, check this out... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    fedaykin

    This is the most intense ad of the cycle.

    It shows Raul Martinez grabbing a young man by the neck and then punching him in the stomach.

    I have seen the ad on local Miami TV at least 20 times.

    Yet I agree with your assessment.  The anti-Diaz Balart ads are much more effective.  

    In fact, within the Caribbean macho-man culture of Miami...

    His fight caught on tape may actually be winning him votes!

    Good times in sunny Miami.

    "I hate quotations. Tell me what you know." -Ralph Waldo Emerson

    by Rian Fike on Sun Oct 26, 2008 at 01:40:27 PM PDT

    •  the thing is (0+ / 0-)

      Raul Martinez was mayor of Hialeah (population 330,000 plus) for 20 years. This is the second-largest city in the county. He still is god there. The people LOVE him and will vote for him regardless of party label.

      Raul has one of most effective GOTV operations in the county. If nothing else, Hialeah could take him over the top.

      -7.38, -5.23 I voted for Barack Obama at 8:31 a.m. EDT on Oct. 24. What about you? Go Obama/Biden 2008!

      by CocoaLove on Sun Oct 26, 2008 at 01:51:38 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  That Was Him During the Elian Gonzalez (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Heimyankel

      flap, giving it to a pro "keep Elian away from his Dad and in the USA" protester.  Raul is nothing to be proud of as a candidate other than the fact he's got a "D" after his name and unlike that insufferable alternative to the child molester up the coast from Miami, has avoided embarrassing sex scandals.

      Being a Yellow Dog, I focus on the "D."  Fortunately, I'm in Joe Garcia's future district.  ;^)

      They burn our children in their wars and grow rich beyond the dreams of avarice.

      by Limelite on Sun Oct 26, 2008 at 02:03:48 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  For More on the Import, Impact, & Implications (0+ / 0-)

    of early voting regarding Democrat's chances, please read Democrats Have Edge in Early FL Voting.

    They burn our children in their wars and grow rich beyond the dreams of avarice.

    by Limelite on Sun Oct 26, 2008 at 01:45:44 PM PDT

  •  Retire both the Diaz-Balart brothers, please (0+ / 0-)

    Now that Castro's out, they serve no purpose anyway. Their eternal boogeyman is gone, they should follow him.

  •  redistricting will be a job (0+ / 0-)

    for a new Progressive Democratic majority in Congress. It will be a generation before they can recover. In the meantime, the wealthiest one-percenters can pay taxes for the rest of us and for their own f**king wars. Maybe when the costs start to accrue, amybe when they start sending their own kids into battle, they can brought around to a sane military system, but not before.

    "The tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots and tyrants." -Thomas Jefferson

    by ezdidit on Sun Oct 26, 2008 at 02:10:54 PM PDT

  •  Markos . . . fix the map (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Heimyankel, fedaykin

    Diaz-Balart (R) vs. Martinez (D)

    appears in map as

    Diaz-Balart (R) vs. Gonzalez (D)

    Surely, those Spanish names don't all sound alike.

    And in the unlikely story that is America, there has never been anything false - about HOPE. Barack Obama

    by thesunshinestateisdark on Sun Oct 26, 2008 at 02:27:17 PM PDT

  •  Early voting so far has a Republican edge (0+ / 0-)

    Through 10/23 early and absentee voters in FL-21 were more likely to be registered Republicans.

    FL21

    In part this is coming because of the Republican focus on absentee ballots. Through 10/19, the day before early voting started, they had an advantage of 8294 to 3183 over Democrat registered voters.

    The first 4 days of early voting have had a Democrat advantage 7830-4857, but this just offsets the Republican advantage in absentee ballots during this period.

    There's still work to do!

    Nill illigitimi carborundum

    by kansasr on Sun Oct 26, 2008 at 02:37:42 PM PDT

  •  A coast-to-coast blizzard on election day? (0+ / 0-)

    Not that I truly want to make it harder for anyone to vote, but there seems to be a blue tide in the early voting everywhere, and I hope it doesn't get diluted on November 4, and I wouldn't cry if it got frozen in by bad weather.

    We're all pretty strange one way or another; some of us just hide it better. "Normal" is a dryer setting.

    by david78209 on Sun Oct 26, 2008 at 04:12:46 PM PDT

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