The Lexington Herald-Leader began this Friday to portion out results from a new Research 2000 poll (of 600 likely Kentucky voters, conducted October 19-21, margin of error 4 percent). You will have seen the short version: McCain 55, Obama 39. McConnell 47, Lunsford 43. I should like to add and discuss the ugly details.
Once again, I live in a place in which my vote for president does not matter (though I will vote proudly), a state to which no Democratic presidential candidate in the last two election cycles has paid more than cursory respect, an electorate the Republicans can comfortably take for granted. We have only 8 electoral votes to give, and are a poor state whose roads and geography make campaigning here difficult and probably imprudent for the likes of Biden and Obama. And I do understand the tactical decisions at work, the triage required even to sustain a 50-state strategy. Only it's not a 50-state strategy. We're not even trying here.
But if you will follow along to read the grim numbers below, I should like also to suggest what is being lost as we ignore Kentucky and, by extension, Appalachia.
Here are some of the lowlights:
...nearly one in four Democrats said they will vote for McCain, as did 62 percent of independents. Only 5 percent of Republicans said they will vote for Obama.
My adopted home is on the edge of Appalachia. Kentucky is cut into very small counties (it had something to do with the distance a man on a mule could travel to the polls, and now provides patronage and legitimate employment opportunities too entrenched to be uprooted), and we are surrounded by some of the poorest counties in the state, and, thus, in the United States.
My hunch is that the distinction between Democrat and Republican here is more a matter of local tribal loyalties than it is of policy. That is, that each county has a discrete political infrastructure built around one of the two parties which has to do with local jobs and road building and almost nothing to do with national politics.
Two other observations: People here may be voting for McCain, but they show no enthusiasm for the task, based on yard signs and bumperstickers (and we drove through Lexington yesterday, so I'm not just sampling my own neighborhood). And people may be voting for Lunsford, but -- again, based on the Ditch Mitch signs I've seen, and the singular absence of a PRO Lunsford sign or bumpersticker -- but they're really voting against the Republican party, and apparently it is safer to vote for a Kentucky Democrat than a black man from Illinois.
Finally, before I move on...Mamaw, my wife's grandmother, 84 years strong and a lifelong Republican, voted for Obama. And McConnell. An interesting exercise in ticket splitting, rationalized thusly, for she is a smart woman and a keen observer: The Democrats are going to win, and Obama should win. But Kentucky will need some juice in the Senate or we'll get nothing, so we have to keep McConnell.
Back to the polls. Here's why the numbers are so bad for Obama:
Despite heavy national media attention about Obama's faith, more than half of likely Republican voters — 54 percent — and one of every four Democrats in the state do not know that the Democratic presidential nominee is a Christian, the poll found.
The poll showed that 14 percent of likely Kentucky voters — 28 percent of Republicans, 4 percent of Democrats and 11 percent of independents — think Obama adheres to the Muslim faith.
Sigh. Followed by the stereotypical hillbilly explanation:
Republican Larry Forgy, who narrowly lost to Democrat Paul Patton in Kentucky's 1995 race for governor, said Obama's heritage is why some people think he is a Muslim.
"I know he's not a practicing Muslim but, to me, his preacher, Jeremiah Wright, sounds more like Malcolm X than Billy Graham."
And a question even more worth asking:
Del Ali, president of Research 2000, said he'd like to ask those respondents who said Obama is a Muslim if they listen to syndicated conservative talk show hosts Rush Limbaugh and Sean Hannity.
Then, sadly, there is this:
...12 percent of respondents said the fact that Obama, if elected, would be the first black president of the United States made them less likely to vote for him compared to 5 percent who said it made them more likely to support him. Eighty-three percent said Obama's race didn't affect their vote.
Followed by this explanation:
More than half reported that they believed black politicians tend to be more concerned with promoting the interests of minority groups.
And more than three out of every five respondents also agreed with a statement that said "if blacks would only try harder, they could be just as well off as whites." One fifth of people polled said they disagreed with the statement while 19 percent said they weren't sure.
The 61 percent of Kentucky respondents who said they agreed with that statement is well above the 35 percent who agreed when asked the same question in a national Associated Press-Yahoo poll taken in September.
"It's the minority view in the rest of the country and a majority view in Kentucky," said Mark Peffley, political science professor at the University of Kentucky and a member of that department's Race and Politics Research Group. "That's a little troubling."
A little troubling. Yeah.
And even on what is generally agreed to be the central and clinching issue of the day -- the economy -- Kentuckians somehow believe McCain to be the answer:
Of approximately 600 potential voters, 36 percent said McCain would best handle the nation's economy, compared to 32 percent who said Obama would be better for the economy. That's contrary to most national polls that show Obama clearly ahead of McCain when voters were asked about the candidates' economic plans.
The poll showed that of all voters, 54 percent said the economy was the single most important issue in determining their vote. No other issue was even close. About 10 percent of voters said taxes were the most important issue, and 9 percent said gas prices. Rounding out the list were national security, moral values and the war in Iraq. A similar poll conducted in May showed the economy as the top issue, but national security and Iraq were more of a concern six months ago, a comparison of the two polls shows.
The Obama-Clinton primary season revealed (or reminded us of) deep schisms in Appalachia. And, not to go all Redneck Manifesto on y'all (though I do recommend reading that now dated bit of delightful scree, the premise of which is, in part, that rednecks are the last ethnic group it is permissible to slam in public). And, yes, sadly, racism remains a significant problem here.
But there are other problems: mountaintop removal, prescription drug abuse, shattering poverty, indifferently funded schools, a dearth of gainful employment, and the certain knowledge that few outsiders give a tinker's dam as long as the coal keeps coming.
Now, I write this (as my handle will indicate) as an outsider; I come here from the west coast, and, nearly five years here, do not pretend to know how and why things work, past a few glimmers of insight here and there.
But I also know this: John Kerry did not campaign in Kentucky (and I leave Louisville out of this because campaigning there is also campaigning in Indiana; and, really, that's just an excuse to fundraise anyhow). Bill Clinton swung through Appalachia during Hillary's last-ditch beat-up Obama and make him look like a loser campaign, and it didn't work, nor did it help the Democrats for the general election (Clinton has been back to campaign for Lunsford). John Edwards made an early appearance in southeastern Kentucky. McCain stopped by when he had a little spare time.
Period.
We're not an important place. We're backward racist hillbillies, and the easiest thing to do is write us off.
But that's a 49-state strategy.
How about we commit to trying, next cycle? Obama made time to go to the Dakotas, but not to Kentucky? (I know, he went to Louisville. We can argue the point if we must.)
Let me try to be clear: I don't care whether I'm able to stand in the presence of these people or not. But I do care deeply that they not forget this place where I live simply because it is expedient to do so.
This polling data suggests to me the peril of this strategy. Here's the thing: These hillbillies, they're not dumb. They know when they're being taken for granted, talked down to, ignored. They understand that nobody thinks their troubles are worth talking about or helping to solve. And they act accordingly.
One last quotation from the Herald-Leader:
No black candidate has been elected to statewide office in Kentucky history.