While the United States trumpets its deep concern for human rights and entangles itself in backfiring military adventures in Georgia, the main causes of the drama are further east--- the battle for oil and gas--- and the pipelines to deliver it---in Central Asia. As I have repeatedly emphasized in these diaries, the United States is fighting an over extended, overaggressive battle in Central Asia that can only weaken this country in the long run.
The pipelines are at least as important as the oil and gas (if not more so). For example, as part of an agreement extending over 25-year-old period,Turkmenistan is supposed to send Russia 70-80 bcm of gas, beginning this year. However, their maximum capacity to send gas over their pipeline is 42-44 bcm a year. (12 bcm of this pipeline must be reserved for Uzbekistan, who shares it.)
CENTRAL ASIA: RUSSIA AND UNITED STATES INTENSIFY ENERGY COMPETITION, EURASIANET.org 9/05/08
Russia’s incursion into Georgia has helped stoke the diplomatic competition by appearing to alter the geopolitical balance of power in the Caspian Basin. [For background see the Eurasia insight archive]. Russia is seen as the most aggressive diplomatic actor in the unfolding struggle, which started escalating rapidly with the end of the summer season. Vladimir Putin’s Kremlin, many experts believe, is now more determined than ever to use the strategic momentum gained in Georgia to try to reduce US political and economic influence in the region. Washington is determined to maintain its position in the Caspian Basin, while China is quietly, but persistently making economic inroads in Central Asia, with the main aim of securing the energy the country needs to keep its economy growing.
A major focal point of the scrum has been Uzbekistan, a country that has been close to Russia, but which has been seen as moving back toward the United States in recent months. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. For now, Russia seems to have arrested Tashkent’s geopolitical drift. During a September 1-2 visit to Tashkent, Putin secured a verbal commitment from Uzbek President Islam Karimov on a variety of projects, most notably the construction of yet another natural gas pipeline, this one with a projected capacity of 26-30 billion cubic meters, and linking Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan to Russia.
While Russia has concentrated its diplomatic attention on Uzbekistan, Washington is working furiously to remain a play for a large share of Turkmenistan’s gas reserves. The new US deputy assistant secretary of state for Central Asia, George A. Krol, completed a nearly five-day visit to Turkmenistan on September 5. The major objective of the visit was to keep open the possibility of constructing a trans-Caspian pipeline (TCP). The United States has long backed the construction of such a route, which would circumvent Russia and link into pipeline connecting Azerbaijan to Turkey, via Georgia. However, the viability of such a pipeline has been called into question by the Russian incursion into Georgia, which caused a major disruption in the westward energy flow from Azerbaijan. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].
After meeting with Turkmen leader Gurbanguly Berdymukhamedov, Krol voiced optimism that the TCP project remained an option for Ashgabat. Turkmen government-controlled media outlets affirmed that Berdymukhamedov remained open to the TCP idea. "The head of state and his guest specifically stressed the wide potential for cooperation in the energy sector, in which Turkmenistan, with its hydrocarbon resources of planetary scales, is implementing a diversification strategy," said a commentary posted on the official Turkmenistan web site.