After a seemingly interminable campaign cycle, we are down to the final week of Election 2008. With a week to go, we are starting to see a real discrepancy between the tracking polls and every other data source we have for Election 2008.
Two national polls released today show Barack Obama expanding his lead over John McCain, one well into the double digits. But the trackers, for the fourth straight day, show movement in McCain's direction. Most important of all, state polling continues to be mixed, but with no signs of a significant shift from polling throughout October which has shown an Obama Electoral College majority to be a likelihood.
In all, we have three national polls, our seven trackers, and a final total of 48 individual polls. Follow me for all of it.
PRESIDENTIAL: NATIONAL AND TRACKING POLLS
We had a distinct discrepancy between the national polls released today and the seven daily trackers. The trackers, as they have done since the weekend, showed some movement in John McCain's direction. Meanwhile, the national polls released today went in the other direction.
The samples may tell a great deal of the story here. Much has been made (rec'ed diary and everything) about today's Pew Poll. While Democrats should be heartened by the result, it is worth noting that the sample in the poll (Dems 39%, Indies 32%, GOP 29%) is AWFULLY optimistic. If you apply Rasmussen's assumptions about partisan ID (and give him credit--he came close to the right answer in 2004), and you reweight the poll by his partisan assumptions (Dems 40%, GOP 33%, Indies 27%), you get a very different poll: Obama 50.4%, McCain 39.6%. Still a healthy lead to be sure, but much less than the fifteen-point spread that was advertised.
Meanwhile, the same could be said on the other end of the spectrum. Consider the Zogby tracking poll, which has the race at four points. Again, if you apply Rasmussen's partisan assumptions, you get a very different result: Obama 51.0%, McCain 42.6%. The lead actually DOUBLES.
In all we had two national polls, plus the quasi-tracker from GWU/Battleground. Pew had the most optimistic polling for Democrats: Obama 53%, McCain 38%. Battleground will continue to be the Drudge pollster of the day, continuing for a week to show a three-point spread: Obama 49%, McCain 46%. Everyone's favorite pirate pollster (ARG) gives Obama a five-point edge (50-45). This is actually an improvement of a point over the previous ARG poll last week.
Meanwhile, we see three trackers showing a smaller lead for Obama than yesterday, one showing narrow improvement for Obama, with three staying steady. The big drop, perhaps to be expected after several good days, was Gallup, which trimmed the Obama lead down from 10 to 7 points. Both Zogby (O+5 to O+4) and Research 2000 (O+8 to O+7) also cut Obama's lead, but by only a point in both cases. Holding steady were Diageo/Hotline (O+8), ABC/Washington Post (O+7), Rasmussen (O+5). IBD/TIPP showed a one-point gain in Obama's lead, but in their GOP-heavy sampling, that just moves the needle from Obama +3 to Obama +4.
NATIONAL POLLS
PEW RESEARCH: Obama 53%, McCain 38%
AMERICAN RESEARCH GROUP: Obama 50%, McCain 45%
GWU/BATTLEGROUND: Obama 49%, McCain 46%
TRACKING POLLS
Diageo/Hotline: Obama 50%, McCain 42%
ABC/Washington Post: Obama 52%, McCain 45%
Gallup: Obama 51%, McCain 44%
Research 2000: Obama 50%, McCain 43%
Rasmussen: Obama 51%, McCain 46%
Zogby: Obama 49%, McCain 45%
IBD/TIPP: Obama 48%, McCain 44%
PRESIDENTIAL: STATE-BY-STATE POLLING
If the tracking polls may give the McCain campaign some measure of hope, the state polling is probably the antidote for that adrenaline rush. While there are individual data points that might give the McCain campaign some solace, the overall picture remains one where all the Kerry 2004 states seem to be off the table, while there are an ever-growing number of Bush 2004 states within reach of the Democrats.
As it has been for a month, the road to 270 for John McCain appears to rely on winning every tossup, including in states that are STILL not tossups with just a week to go.
In the blue states, new polling seems to continue to put both New Hampshire and Pennsylvania out of McCain's reach. Even the closer polls here are right at the edge of double-digit Obama leads.
The media narrative is the race is still very much in doubt. That said, is is not somewhat relevant that the latest polls show Mississippi (see below), Montana, and ARIZONA closer than either Pennsylvania or New Hampshire??
Meanwhile, in the red state battlegrounds, new polling shows that the western battlegrounds of Nevada and Colorado appear to remain modestly in the Obama column. The margins might be moving outward...two of the last three polls out of Colorado have Obama leading outside the margin of error. The Los Angeles Times polls the two big-money battlegrounds, giving Obama leads of seven points in Florida, and nine points in Ohio.
One way to measure the security of the Obama lead in the state-by-state polling. For the first time since late last week, Obama scores a clear victory in the momentum tracker (measured as this set of polls vs. the Pollster.com Trend Composite). Eighteen states get new data today. Obama beat the spread in FOURTEEN of them. McCain beats the spread in four of them, including just marginally in both Vermont and Wisconsin.
Worth noting, we now have our SECOND statewide tracking poll. Joining Muhlenberg College's tracker of the numbers in Pennsylvania, we have the UNH/WMUR tracking poll in New Hampshire. The current numbers? Obama in a landslide.
ARIZONA #1--Northern Arizona U: McCain 49%, Obama 41% (Obama)
ARIZONA #2--Arizona State U: McCain 46%, Obama 44%
ARKANSAS--Rasmussen: McCain 54%, Obama 44% (Obama)
COLORADO--InsiderAdvantage: Obama 53%, McCain 45% (Obama)
FLORIDA #1--Datamar: Obama 49%, McCain 44%, Others 3% (Obama)
FLORIDA #2--LA Times: Obama 50%, McCain 43%
GEORGIA--InsiderAdvantage: McCain 48%, Obama 47%, Others 2% (Obama)
INDIANA #1--Howey Gauge: McCain 47%, Obama 45% (Obama)
INDIANA #2--Research 2000: Obama 48%, McCain 47%
LOUISIANA--SE Louisiana U: McCain 51%, Obama 38%, Others 2% (Obama)
MAINE--Market Decisions: Obama 54%, McCain 33% (Obama)
MISSISSIPPI--Rasmussen: McCain 53%, Obama 45% (Obama)
MONTANA--Mason Dixon: McCain 48%, Obama 44% (Obama)
NEVADA #1--Suffolk U: Obama 50%, McCain 40%, Others 4% (Obama)
NEVADA #2--Rasmussen: Obama 50%, McCain 46%
NEW HAMPSHIRE #1--U. of New Hampshire: Obama 55%, McCain 39%, Others 2% (Obama)
NEW HAMPSHIRE #2--Mason Dixon: Obama 50%, McCain 39%
NEW JERSEY--Strategic Vision (R): Obama 53%, McCain 38% (Obama)
NORTH CAROLINA--Mason Dixon: Obama 47%, McCain 47% (McCain)
OHIO #1--SurveyUSA: Obama 49%, McCain 45%, Others 4% (Obama)
OHIO #2--LA Times: Obama 49%, McCain 40%
OKLAHOMA--TV Poll: McCain 62%, Obama 35% (Obama)
PENNSYLVANIA #1--Muhlenberg: Obama 53%, Obama 41%, Others 1% (McCain)
PENNSYLVANIA #2--InsiderAdvantage: Obama 51%, McCain 42%
PENNSYLVANIA #3--Rasmussen: Obama 53%, McCain 46%
VERMONT--Research 2000: Obama 56%, McCain 35% (McCain)
WISCONSIN--Strategic Vision (R): Obama 50%, McCain 41% (McCain)
NON-PRESIDENTIAL POLLS
A "good news"/"bad news" day for the polls downballot.
Good news: Public polls put Democrats ahead in three GOP-held districts. We might have expected Congresswoman Kilroy (OH-15). We had high hopes for Congressman Kissell (NC-08). But are you ready for Congressman Montagano (IN-03)??!!??
Bad news: A second poll out of the South confirms that the Mississippi special election might be sliding away from the Democrats. The second poll in three days gives appointed Senator Roger Wicker a double-digit lead.
Good news: Some Dems thought to be endangered (Chris Carney, Carol Shea-Porter, Dennis Moore) seem to be okay, according to new numbers.
Bad news: Some Dems thought NOT to be endangered might be in trouble, after all (Jim Marshall and David Scott).
GA-SEN--InsiderAdvantage: Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R) 46%, Jim Martin (D) 44%, Others 2%
GA-08 #1--SurveyUSA: Rep. Jim Marshall (D) 49%, Rick Goddard (R) 45%
GA-08 #2--Mellman (D): Rep. Jim Marshall (D) 48%, Rick Goddard (R) 31%
GA-13--Cooper Secrest (D): Rep. David Scott (D) 43%, Deborah Honeycutt (R) 38%
IN-GOV--Howey Gauge: Gov. Mitch Daniels (R) 61%, Jill Long Thompson (D) 30%
IN-03 #1--Research 2000: Rep. Mark Souder (R) 45%, Michael Montagano (D) 40%, Others 4%
IN-03 #2--Howey Gauge: Michael Montagano (D) 44%, Rep. Mark Souder (R) 41%
KS-03--SurveyUSA: Rep. Dennis Moore (D) 53%, Nick Jordan (R) 42%, Others 3%
LA-SEN--SE Louisiana U: Sen. Mary Landrieu (D) 53%, John Kennedy (R) 34%, Others 1%
ME-SEN--Market Decisions: Sen. Susan Collins (R) 54%, Tom Allen (D) 37%
MS-SEN--Rasmussen: Sen. Roger Wicker (R) 54%, Ronnie Musgrove (D) 43%
NC-GOV--PPP: Beverly Perdue (D) 47%, Pat McCrory (R) 44%
NC-08--PPP: Larry Kissell (D) 51%, Rep. Robin Hayes (R) 46%
NH-SEN--UNH: Jeanne Shaheen (D) 49%, Sen. John Sununu (R) 38%, Others 2%
NH-01--UNH: Rep. Carol Shea-Porter (D) 48%, Jeb Bradley (R) 40%
NJ-SEN--Strategic Vision (R): Sen. Frank Lautenberg (D) 49%, Dick Zimmer (R) 41%
OH-15--SurveyUSA: Mary Jo Kilroy (D) 47%, Steve Stivers (R) 41%, Others 8%
OK-SEN--TV Poll: Sen. Jim Inhofe (R) 51%, Andrew Rice (D) 41%, Others 3%
OR-SEN--Davis Hibbits: Jeff Merkley (D) 45%, Sen. Gordon Smith (R) 40%, Others 3%
PA-10--Lycoming College: Rep. Chris Carney (D) 50%, Chris Hackett (R) 35%
TX-07--G.Q.R. (D): Rep. John Culberson (R) 49%, Michael Skelly (D) 44%, Others 3%