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Barack Obama has two words for us: "New Hampshire" And I've got three more: "Ohio, Virginia, Colorado"

According to there is only one state (Colorado) John McCain needs in which Obama leads by more than the combined margin of error. (Average MOE = 3.8% so combined is 7.6%) and only three states (Ohio, Virginia, Colorado) that he leads by the strait up margin of error.

Add those numbers to the usual Republican dirty tricks, the fact there are 7 days left, the possibility of an October surprise, the possible Bradley effect and so on and the only logical conclusion you can reach is this race is far from a done deal.

We're so close to reaching our goal, but below the fold I'll show you with hard data why we need to keep our foot on the gas pedal.

First we'll take a look at the polling data gathered from I chose because I like the Votemaster's methodology, he chooses only non partisan polls to include in his site, the obvious reason being partisan polls are more likely to be biased be it by either side.

As you can see on Monday's map John McCain needs 113 electoral votes to get to 270. The above 10 states are the states where he is losing by the least amounts and that add up to the 113 he needs. (The 10 states above actually add up to 117 so he could lose either Montana or North Dakota and still get to 271)

Furthermore, Senator Obama only leads by more than the strait up margin of error in Ohio, Virginia, and Colorado, and only leads by the combined margin of error by a razor thin 0.4% in Colorado.

Now of course all of this assumes a lot of things go right for Senator McCain on Election Day. But we've seen Republicans steal elections before, we've seen October surprises before, we've seen the Bradley effect before, we've seen campaigns come back from down before, we've seen polls wrong before, even exit polls as in 2004. And what if the polling methodology is flawed? What if some people think the election is over and stay home? What if the youth vote doesn't materialize? What if... What if...

Do you really want to spend the next four years asking what if? Have you enjoyed living under Republican rule for the last 8 years? Would you enjoy a Palin presidency?

Then get out there, head down to your local Obama campaign office and work your ass off. We've got 7 days left, DO NOT QUIT NOW. 7 days is a lifetime in Politics, 7 days is like the beginning of the 3rd quarter in Football, it's the start of the 6th inning in Baseball, it's the start of the 12th frame in Cricket! (OK I just made that last one up I have no idea how cricket works.)

...And dying in your bed many years from now, would you be willing to trade all the days from this day to that; for one chance, just one chance, to come back here as young men and tell our enemies: that they may take our lives but they will never take our freedom!"

Originally posted to on Tue Oct 28, 2008 at 07:08 AM PDT.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (10+ / 0-)

    "I hope one day the Human Race evolves past Conservatism, and I hope I'm alive to see it." -Me

    by hishighness on Tue Oct 28, 2008 at 07:07:45 AM PDT

  •  You'll hear this is a Concern Troll... (6+ / 0-)

    ...but not from me.  While I remain fairly confident of an Obama victory, I am not relaxing about it, because history has burned me before.  At least the polls in question are not about a single state on which the election may turn (Ohio in '04; Florida in '00), but rather a bunch of them, and at least the trends seem solidly in Obama's favor.  That said, I am pleased that the Obama campaign is not coasting; every vote is necessary, and every vote will (hopefully) count.  {ProfJonathan}

    "The perfect is the enemy of the good." -- Voltaire

    by ProfJonathan on Tue Oct 28, 2008 at 07:11:19 AM PDT

  •  Is that Tina Fey? (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    SLKRR, elliott, soms

    Seriously though, most GOP strategists have said Colorado is likely out of reach.

    Still you're right. Now's not the time to get complacent.

    I'll see your Joe the Plumber and raise you one Powell the General!

    by OReillysNightmare on Tue Oct 28, 2008 at 07:11:25 AM PDT

  •  For the record (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    "The second inning" in cricket.  A full test match contains two innings each of which can take several days to complete.

  •  You do realize... (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    vawolf, soms

    MoE goes both ways.  It could turn a 3.5% lead into 0%, or it could be wrong the other way and actually be a 7% race.

    It doesnt necessarily always go lower.

  •  I've been slapped with the "concern" (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Ky DEM, soms, synductive99

    troll label.  I think it's coming your way.

    Some people say "concerned", but I think I'm determined to rid our country of its worst leadership in history.  I hate what the Bush's GOP did to our country.  The country cannot survive with four more years of leadership.

    I'm watching Obama live and he gets it.  America needs Obama and I won't rest until the votes are counted and he's declared the winner.

    •  I have no doubt (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      that Obama himself could post a diary here on this subject, and he would be slapped with 'concern troll' charges.

      Polls don't account for repug slime.  We have to fight for every. last. vote.  Regardless of where you live.

      "That one" is singular for "those people".

      by grasshopper on Tue Oct 28, 2008 at 07:37:17 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Now THAT Is A Scary Picture. (0+ / 0-)

    My hair is standing up on my neck.

  •  The MOE could always be pointed in the other... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    direction. I wouldn't call you a concern troll, but I think you need to be a little more positive.

    by Democratic Tribune on Tue Oct 28, 2008 at 07:19:31 AM PDT

  •  FYI...New Hotline/Diageo Poll Obama +8 (0+ / 0-)

    Steady as she goes...and push forward to the finish line with great force!


    by Democratic Tribune on Tue Oct 28, 2008 at 07:21:08 AM PDT

  •  McCain has to win Pennsylvania to win (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    ...which is why he's spending such an inordinate amount of time there.

    CO or VA, and most likely both, are assumed to be lost to McCain now, similar to Iowa.

    Here we are now Entertain us I feel stupid and contagious

    by Scarce on Tue Oct 28, 2008 at 07:23:49 AM PDT

  •  you need to better understand statistics (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    and the margin of error.  You also should spell check "strait".

    •  Do you enjoy being an asshole? (0+ / 0-)

      You know what the old saying is about not having anything nice to say?

      Yeah, I don't listen to it either. Fuck you.

      "I hope one day the Human Race evolves past Conservatism, and I hope I'm alive to see it." -Me

      by hishighness on Tue Oct 28, 2008 at 08:17:41 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Another reminder (0+ / 0-)

    of how lazy, complacent and unpatriotic I am.  Good grief.

    "The Only Thing We Have to Fear Is Fear Itself" - Franklin Delano Roosevelt

    by djbender on Tue Oct 28, 2008 at 07:39:30 AM PDT

  •  "The Bradley Effect" (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    Has been debunked over and over and over again.  I wish people would quit bringing it up.

  •  Pollinf - 2 * MOE is even more disastrous. (0+ / 0-)


  •  No. Look at this graph. (0+ / 0-)

    Using data from, Obama is ahead by 10% in Iowa, New Mexico, and  all the blue states except New Hampshire - that's a lock that puts him 10 EVs from victory.  So to win, McCain has to take Virginia and Florida and Ohio and Indiana and North Carolina and Missouri, in all of which Obama is ahead.  Even if he does, Obama can win with NH+CO (ahead by 7% in both), or failing that CO+NV (ahead by 3% in NV), or CO+ND or CO+MT (ND and MT are both tossups) or NH+NV+any other state.

    McCain just has no plausible path to victory left.  Why do you think he's planning a defeat party?

  •  margin of errror works both ways (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    so your's is a worst case scenario, and races always get tight at the end and no one should really think this is in the bag.  Work like you are 5 points down, let McRage and Failin spout the hysteria.  Obama has tomorrow night's TV time to yet again display the tempement and calmness we need in a President and still invoke the passion we all want, just like FDR and JFK.  And if they play baseball in Philly tonight there may be no game to interrupt.

    Wingnuts - evolution's dirty little joke.

    by geneticdem on Tue Oct 28, 2008 at 07:48:13 AM PDT

    •  not just a worst case, the worst case (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      geneticdem, bluegrass50, IreGyre

      This would assume that every one of those states goes to the extreme of the worst case scenario. This argument is a little like saying you could get struck by lightning 6 times. I mean, it is possible. But wow, is it unlikely. I'm also not sure how the "combined margin of error" was calculated. Perhaps an explanation of that is in order.

      The better argument for avoiding complacency is that the polls (and people's intentions that the polls are trying to measure) may change leading up to election day. So there is a tiny chance that much error in a consistently bad direction is the current state of things, but the bigger worry is that changes may happen before most people vote, and we need to attempt to buffer against those potential changes.

  •  There's also Rev Wright (0+ / 0-)

    he's got to be good for maybe 5 points, more in some areas.  

    The American electorate is currently outperforming expectations, so I figure the bubble has to burst at some point.  I'm trying not to think about it.

    "When I was an alien, cultures weren't opinions" ~ Kurt Cobain, Territorial Pissings

    by Subterranean on Tue Oct 28, 2008 at 08:02:43 AM PDT

  •  I Guess I'm in Good Company (0+ / 0-)

    Because every Democrat I see on TV from Obama to Howard Dean and so on say the same things, this race isn't over, we all need to vote. So call me a concern troll, call what what you will, but trying to fight complacency is NOT in any way a bad thing and if you think it is you need to take a long hard look in the mirror.

    "I hope one day the Human Race evolves past Conservatism, and I hope I'm alive to see it." -Me

    by hishighness on Tue Oct 28, 2008 at 08:20:58 AM PDT

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