Like geordie, I was shocked to hear Rachel Maddow's claim in an oddly edited interview with Howard Dean that early voting was behind in 2008 relative to 2004 and this was keeping her up nights. Considering the many enthusiastic diaries on this site about early voting, I was frankly blown away. In particular, she claimed based upon a Denver paper's report, that the big crowd from last weekend despite pleas for early voting by Obama, all but walked by open early voting booths.
Just today, Josh Marshall posted a link to a new site at George Mason University by Michael McDonald which is tracking early voting and which would appear, at least superficially, to back Maddow's claims. Specifically, standouts where 2008 early voting leads 2004 early voting are: Georgia, North Carolina, Louisiana, Fairfax Co. in VA (statewide totals not available), Franklin & Cuyahoga COs in OH (statewide totals not available).
I suspect the flaw in the impeccably smart Maddow's analysis is this: there are 6 days of early voting left and a lot of ballots can pile up in those six days.
First, here is the video from Maddow's interview of Dean:
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Second, as an adjunct to the McDonald web site, there is this op-ed he posted at the Brookings Institution web page, dated Oct. 24.
The money quotes:
Early voting has started in earnest in many states, marking a dramatic change in how Americans vote and how campaigns are run. Preliminary indications are that more people will cast their ballot prior to Election Day than in any campaign in the nation’s history.
Already, well over ten million people have cast their ballot for this November’s much-anticipated presidential election. This statistic is from just a few states and localities where these early voting numbers are available. In Georgia, for instance, more people have already voted early than voted early in all of the last presidential election.
On the other hand, the numbers listed on McDonald's web site clearly trail 2004 numbers in all but the states and counties listed above. (Look at the fifth column, which are respectively 2008 early voting as a percentage of 2004 total vote, and 2004 early voting as a percentage of 2004 vote.)
Now obviously, if you take this to a nervous nellie extreme, there is reason to get very anxious as did our beloved Rachel Maddow. To the extent this turnout is a predictor of election turnout, it could be low! Or, if it is a bad predictor of election turnout, we could see Ohio of 2004 only much worse - humongous lines at the polls on election day!
What gives?
Four thoughts.
First, the 2004 totals are for everything that arrived early - polling place, absentee - right up to the day before election. That is still 6 days away, and I can imagine a flood of votes in those 6 days. A good illustration of this is for Oregon, with 100% mail in ballots. Only a fifth of the ballots are in and accounted for so far (as of 10/26). Never underestimate the ability of people to procrastinate.
Second, although the absentee ballots are generally counted in this survey, I can imagine (and McDonald seems to allude to this in his web page) that it is more difficult to obtain accurate information on these.
Third, pulled from you know where, but at least a falsifiable hypothesis: the early turnout in 2004 was dominated by republicans, and it is quite possible this year with the poorly organized McCain campaign and the enthusiasm gap associated with the R-ticket, that voting is LOWER on that side while relatively higher for dems who are less accustomed to early voting but doing so at the request of the Obama campaign.
Fourth, there are many like me who want to have the communal experience of voting with our many peers in this historic election.
I welcome your thoughts and critiques of this thinking. I especially think the first point is reason enough to give pause to the thinking coming from Rachel Maddow's fast racing mind.
UPDATE 1: From Sacramento Dem, great link to a diary by higher pie on early voting in Clark County NV, for which McDonald's web site has more limited data.