Stochastic Democracy examines the effects of today's polls on the state of the Presidential, Senate, and Governor's races using it's mathematical model.
Go below the fold or to the website to see discussion, graphs, and an interactive web applet to show the effects of today's polls on Democratic prospects in the Senate, Presidential, and Gubernatorial races.
http://stochasticdemocracy.blogspot.com/
And incase you missed it, read our compare and contrast with FiveThirtyEight here
In case you missed it, see our write-up comparing our method with fivethirtyeight's here.
*********Cross Posted at StochasticDemocracy**********
Summary:
Obama wins 98.5% of the time, with 360 Electoral votes on average. He currently has a lead of 7.5 points in the national polls.
The Democrats are most likely to capture 59 Senate seats in November. They have a roughly 19% chance of obtaining a filibuster proof majority(Though this will likely improve a little tomorrow when we see a poll out of Alaska).
Democratic Candidates are very likely to win the only two competitive governor races this year, in Washington and North Carolina.
National Tracking Polls:
CI- The 95% confidence intervals for what public opinion is today, based on the sampling error in the poll aggregate
FI- The 95% prediction intervals for what the outcome will be in November, based on estimation of variance when treating polls as observations of a random walk(under a hidden Markov Bayesian framework).
The same graph as the first, but only since the Republican Convention
According to my filter, Obama is currently 7.5 points ahead. The race has been essentially stable over the last week.
Electoral College
As far as the electoral college goes, I've incorporated the polls since yesterday. Consequentially, the Delta tabs on the applet at the top of the site show the change in the electoral map since then.
A histogram, showing the distribution of possible presidential election outcomes and their probability
A cartogram, where state's are sized proportionally to their electoral votes. Shaded according to Obama's chance of winning
A map showing changes in polling since Wednesday. Shaded according to changes in Obama's chance of winning
The new swing states*, in order from most to least Obama friendly, are North Carolina(75%), Missouri(65%), North Dakota(54%), and Indiana(28%)
After this, Obama's next best states are Georgia(18%), Montana (12%), and West Virginia(8%) [Other state's probabilities can be seen on the applet]
New polls have hurt Obama's chances severely in Montana and Indiana(Though Georgia is slowly creeping up). At the same time, other polls have solidified his lead in Florida and New Hampshire. A good trade?
Senate:
A histogram of Democratic Senate seats and the respective probability of getting that many seats.
Probability of maintaining control of the Senate(>=50): >99.99%
Probability of improving our position in the Senate(>51): >99.99%
Probability of a Filibuster-Proof Majority(>=60): 18.65%
Probability of a Lieberman-Free Filibuster-Proof Majority(>=61): 2.83%
A map of this year's Senate races shaded according to The Democrat's chance of winning
The competitive seats** are, from most to least Obama Friendly:
Oregon (90%) - Merkley(D) vs Smith
North Carolina(80%) - Hagan(D) vs Dole
Minnesota(73%) - Franken(D) vs Coleman
Alaska (65%) - Begich(D) vs Stevens [Note, Stevens was convicted by a federal jury yesterday. So this should really be 100%, but we are waiting for a poll]
Georgia (32%) - Martin(D) vs Chambliss
Kentucky (15%) - Lunsford(D) vs McConnell
Today was a mixed day for Democrats. While we have almost certainly shored up Alaska, new polls have knocked Mississippi out of reach. I suspect that the Deep South is one of the few places that McCain's race-baiting has been effective.
With Mississippi out of play, Democrats need to win either Georgia or Kentucky to get past 60. It's still possible, but don't cross your fingers...
Governor:
A map of US Governor races where polls are available, shaded by probability of Democratic Victory
There are only two remotely competitive races this year, and Democrats surged ahead today in both of them
North Carolina (93%) - Perdue(D) vs McCrory
Washington (85%) - Gregoire(D) vs Rossi
*defined as states where the probability of an Democratic Victory is between 20% and 80%.
**defined as states where probability of a Democratic Victory is between 10% and 90%
*********Cross Posted at StochasticDemocracy**********