(In the final days of an election, there is so much information from so many races, it's difficult to stay on top of every story and understand the subtle dynamics often at play on the ground. Thankfully, we have an expansive 50-state blogosphere to match our 50-state strategy. Over the last two weeks of the campaign, we've asked leaders of the state blogospheres to provide insight into late developments and share the stories of their states in a series we're calling "Listening to the Locals." SusanG)
Florida is not a red state. Seriously. Despite what some recent elections have shown us, Florida has more Democrats and that number is growing very quickly. Sure, some in the north of the state are the vestiges of the old Dixiecrat group, but they are on the decline and the fast-growing African-American and Hispanic/Latino populations are quickly shifting the state in a bluer direction. Add in the fact that Cuban-Americans are moving in a more Democratic direction, you have the makings of a potential Democratic majority in the state in the near future.
Barack Obama and Joe Biden are going to win Florida, and thus the presidency. And it won't be close enough in 2008 for the Republicans to steal it like they did in 2000. We're still sorry about that one. Here's why Obama will win:
- He's already winning. Current polls generally put him up by 5-7 points. And with these polls being based on past turnout models and under-representing cell phone owners, the real percentage is probably a few more points in Obama's direction.
- Voter turnout will be high in Florida, with some projections going as high as 80% or more. Republicans win in Florida because of low Democratic turnout. We're already seeing record turnout in early voting and absentee balloting, and for the first time, Democrats are leading in turnout in the early period, something we've never done before.
- The ground game. While the McCain people are having public conflicts with the Florida Republicans and calling secret emergency meetings to fix the problems, the Obama campaign has established the biggest and best run presidential ground game since Jimmy Carter. Run by Steve Schale -- the man who orchestrated the biggest turnover of seats in Florida legislative history in 2006-07 -- the Obama campaign has more than 500 paid staffers on the ground here and thousands of volunteers, even in areas where presidential campaigns usually ignore. To increase turnout, they've literally rented every available van in the state to drive people to the polls and are having to go as far as Georgia and South Carolina to find more vans.
Obama will also get a boost from a very strong slate of congressional candidates, maybe the strongest batch in the country.
We have the biggest group of good strong progressive Democrats running in any state as far as I can tell.
Five of our candidates clearly stand out as "better" Democrats by any measure and all of them have a legitimate shot of making it to Congress. Alan Grayson already has a lead against Ric Keller (FL-6) and most Kos readers know all about Annette Taddeo (vs. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen in FL-18) and Joe Garcia (vs. Mario Diaz-Balart in FL-25). I'd be shocked if Garcia didn't win and the latest polls show Taddeo within striking distance. Grayson's fellow veterans Jay McGovern (Ander Crenshaw, FL-4) and Doug Tudor (Adam Putnam, FL-12) have a little tougher road to get to Washington, but polls show both of them in striking distance. Not only would they improve our representation in Congress, but each of these candidates is also a really good person who I would trust to serve us and would have a beer with (and actually have with a few of them). Good candidates, real people, the best Florida has to offer.
Not quite as progressive as the first five, but still certainly leaps and bounds better than the incumbents are Christine Jennings (vs. Vern Buchanan, FL-12), Raul Martinez (vs. Lincoln Diaz-Balart, FL-21) and Suzanne Kosmas (vs. Tom Feeney, FL-24). Even Republicans are admitting that Feeney is toast against Kosmas and his "apology" ad for being involved with Jack Abramoff didn't help. Martinez appears to be in a dead heat with Lincoln and Jennings appears to have a chance to actually claim the seat that she won in 2006 but was taken from her by the now-illegal touch screen voting machines.
And we all know that Tim Mahoney is likely to fall in his Republican-leaning district after his recent scandal. There won't be too many people in Florida or elsewhere that will be sorry to see him go.
There is also a group of candidates who are good people and might have a shot in an open seat, but would need something special to happen to be able to overcome incumbents this year. Tim Cunha is taking on Cliff Stearns in FL-6, Faye Armitage is challenging John Mica in FL-7, Bill Mitchell is up against weak incumbet Gus Bilirakis, Bob Hackworth is challenging ancient incumbent C.W. Bill Young, Robert Neeld is taking a shot at Connie Mack and Stephen Blythe is the Democrat in an open seat against former state legislator Bill Posey. I wouldn't be surprised to see one or more of these races get competitive, but I have concerns that there isn't enough money or experience in many of these to win them this year.
Incumbents Jeff Miller (R, FL-1), Allen Boyd (D, FL-2), Corrine Brown (D, FL-3), Ginny Brown-Waite (R, FL-5), Kathy Castor (D, FL-11), Kendrick Meek (D, FL-17), Robert Wexler (D, FL-19), Debbie Wasserman Shultz (D, FL-20), Ron Klein (D, FL-22) and Alcee Hastings (D, FL-23) face no serious opposition and should be easily re-elected. Since most of them are Democrats, they have the opportunity to help out elsewhere and could drive turnout in other districts.
Most of our constitutuional Amendments this year are non-controversial and deal with arcane parts of tax law, but the big battle is over Amendment 2, which we call the Hate Amendment. This one theoritically supposed to define marriage as one man and one woman, something already true under three different parts of state law, but it would go well beyond re-banning gay marriage. The language of the Amendment also contains the "substantial equivalent" wording see in some other states and would additionally ban civil unions and deny public or private benefits for gay or straight couples that are unmarried across the state. This would have a disproportionate impact on many of our senior retirees who often live together for financial reasons. This amendment was funded by local religious right whackjobs and outsiders such as Mat Staver and the groups behind California's Prop 8, but our Florida group is so over-the-top crazy that the Prop 8 people have distanced themselves from the Florida group. Amendment 2 currently sits at about 55-56% in the latest polls and it needs 60% to pass. With 7% undecided it has a chance to pass though, as undecideds in other states have broken in favor of gay marriage bans.
Because of extreme partisan gerrymandering and a strong incumbency advantage tied in with this year's electoral map, the legislature isn't going to see the potential for change that our congressional delegation should. More of the open seats are held by Dems and fewer of the Republicans are facing strong challengers. We expect to see a few more seats added to the record nine that shifted to Dems in the last cycle, but don't look for wholesale changes here until 2010. We should see the continued rise, though, of future progressive stars such as Dave Aronberg, Dan Gelber, Evan Jenne, Scott Randolph, Keith Fitzgerald, Darren Soto and Marty Kiar. I wouldn't be shocked to see one or more of these candidates in statewide office or in Washington before long. You will also see the ascendance of some young new challengers, such as Alan Williams, Michael Calderin, Chris Chiari, Amy Tidd, Carl Zimmerman or Wes McCarville. Clearly, Florida needs to work on its bench in recruiting more strong candidates who are women or African-Americans.
On the state level, we're really gearing up for 2010, when the legislative map will be much more favorable, with potential for more legislative gains and, under perfect circumstances, a pick up of the Senate or House a slight possibility. Charlie Crist will be up for re-election and now that gas prices are falling again, his flip-flop on offshore drilling will make him more vulnerable to several potentially strong challengers, including state CFO Alex Sink, who is wildly popular in the state and who has her husband's failed campaign against Jeb Bush in 2002 as a learning experience. Republican Senator Mel Martinez is also up for re-election, if he decides to run, but his job approval ratings are hovering in the mid-30s and he'll likely face a strong challege from the likes of Gelber, Aronberg, Wexler or someone else. If Martinez bows out, this seat would be a toss-up and might move into the Democratic column if the mood of the nation or state is still pro-Obama in the midterm elections.
With a state as big as Florida, it's difficult to keep track of the local races around the state, but a few notable races include Netroots-allies Kevin Beckner and Stephen Gorham in the Tampa Bay area and newcomer Akin Akinyemi taking on corrupt county commissioner Ed DePuy in Tallahasseeand blogger and Netroots ally Alan Brock running for county commission in Wakulla. In my state house district I'm working hard to help Michelle Rehwinkel Vasilinda defeat inexperienced Republican football player Peter Boulware, who is playing fast and loose with ethics laws himself. Also, thanks to term limits, homophobic Ft. Lauderdale Mayor Jim Naugle, he of the $20k public robo-potties to stop public gay sex, is going to be replaced by one of two openly-gay candidates.
Read: Florida Progressive Coalition, Read more about all Florida candidates at the FPC Wiki
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