From weather.com:
Overlay an electoral map with a weather map on the morning of Nov. 4, you may be able to predict the outcome of the presidential election even before you leave for work.
Whether the weather be cold
Whether the weather be hot
We must weather the weather
Whatever the weather
Whether we like it or not
It's close enough to election day to look at the actual weather forecasts. I've checked 'em for a bunch of states of interest for Presidential or Senate races.
The lake effect snow has already started. Ditto for the ski areas in the Rockies. Sometimes there are late hurricanes, or nor'easters, or Pacific winter storms pounding the coasts. Bad weather tends to suppress turnout, and benefit the Republicans. But at least there's early voting in many states now to take the edge off some of that effect. Here's a map of early voting states (link for interactive early voting details):
Of special interest are early-voting states with at least some bad weather forecast for Election Day. Mostly in the Mid-West (Iowa, excuse-only Minnesota, Wisconsin), plus northern Nevada and the North Carolina coast. Of course, this could all change because fronts might move a little faster or slower - we're still several days out.
Weather Affects Turnout
In general, bad weather favors Republicans, as it depresses turnout as sure as does circulating rumors that cops will be on duty at polling places, checking for those with outstanding traffic warrants:
It was bright and sunny in New Jersey, Delaware and Pennsylvania on Tuesday, November 8, 1960. That was very lucky for the Democratic Party; had it rained, Richard Nixon, not John Kennedy, likely would have been elected president that day.
...
But does this theory hold up to scrutiny? Yes, says a groundbreaking 2005 study, "The Republicans Should Pray for Rain: Weather Turnout and Voting in U.S. Presidential Elections."
For the study, published in The Journal of Politics in June 2007, a team of political scientists cross-referenced voting data and weather reports from more than 3,000 counties, for presidential elections from 1948 to 2000. The researchers carefully adjusted for differences in normal precipitation from place to place by factoring in, for example, the greater likelihood of wet weather in Seattle and Portland, Oregon, than in arid areas such as Los Angeles.
Good thing there's early voting in many states now. In places with foul weather likely next Tuesday, it's all the more important to push early voting. And to help with "comfort supplies" for Election Day.
weather.com's short list
Many observers have noted that there's been some discrepancies in what's dubbed a swing (or "batteground" state) this time around. I'm interested in all potential map-changing states, plus ones with interesting Senate races as well (including the long shots). Here's a graphic kos posted about O'Reilly's map of the battleground states:
Weather.com has chosen only four states as battleground states: Ohio, Florida, Missouri and Pennsylvania, so we'll start with those, then move on to additional states of interest separately. I'm including some polling data, too, gleaned from poblano/nate at 538-dot-com for President & Senate races. Coincidentally, not one of these four states has a Senate race this year. Keeping in mind that good weather tends to favor Democrats:
OHIO (20 electoral votes)
- Cincinnati: High 72, sunny (10%), 8 mph
- Cleveland: High 65, scattered clouds (10%), 10 mph
- Columbus: High 67, sunny (10%), 9 mph
- Marietta: High 67, sunny (10%), 4 mph
- Advantage: Obama (to +9), Dreihaus (OH-01), Wulsin (OH-02), Kilroy (OH-15), Boccieri (OH-16)
FLORIDA (27 electoral votes)
- Jacksonville: High 73, partly cloudy, 11 mph
- Key West: High 79, partly cloudy (10%), 7 mph
- Miami: High 82, scattered showers (30%), 11 mph
- Orlando: High 80, scattered showers (30%), 9 mph
- Pensacola: High 75, sunny (10%), 10 mph
- Tampa: High 81, partly cloudy (20%), 8 mph
- Advantage: Obama (MoE), Grayson (FL-08), Jennings (FL-13), Blythe (FL-15), Taddeo (FL-18), Martinez (FL-21), Kosmas (FL-24), Garcia (FL-25)
Comfort will matter here, due to scattered showers. Early voting should be stressed.
MISSOURI (11 electoral votes)
- Cape Girardeau: High 73, mostly sunny (10%), 12 mph
- Hannibal: High 73, mostly sunny (10%), 17 mph
- Kansas City: High 68, isolated thundershowers (30%), 18 mph
- St. Louis: High 72, partly cloudy (10%), 20 mph
- Springfield: High 74, few showers (20%), 22 mph
- Advantage: Obama (except maybe K-C, MoE), Barnes (MO-06), Baker (MO-09)
Note: With no early voting, and some rain on the forecast, this is an important state for "comfort" efforts. Jeff says umbrellas; I say boxes of trash bags, which are also useful for covering the occasional verboten campaign t-shirt.
PENNSYLVANIA (11 electoral votes)
- Erie: High 63, partly cloudy (10%), 9 mph
- Philadelphia: High 60, mostly sunny (10%), 5 mph
- Pittsburgh: High 62, mostly sunny (10%), 6 mph
- Scranton: High 56, mostly sunny (10%), 4 mph
- State College: High 57, mostly sunny (10%), 4 mph
- Advantage: Obama (+7 to +14), Dahlkemper (PA-03), Roggio (PA-06)
Other states, alphabetically:
Alaska, Arizona, Colorado, Georgia, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, North Dakota, Oregon, Virginia, Washington, West Virginia, Wisconsin, Wyoming. If someone else wants to look up Idaho (for Minnick v. Sali), or California (for Brown v. McClintock), or Connecticut (for Himes v. Shays), etc. -- please do!!
ALASKA (3 electoral votes)
- Anchorage: High 28, snow showers (40%), 5 mph
- Barrow: High 18, snow showers (40%), 19 mph
- Fairbanks: High 15, snow showers (60%), calm
- Juneau: High 38, showers (60%), 6 mph
- Nome: High 25, show showers (40%), 8mph
- Advantage: McCain (+16) Stevens (but hopefully not enough to overcome those 7 felony convictions, no post-conviction polls), Young (AK-AL)
ARIZONA (10 electoral votes)
- Chinle: High 60, mostly sunny (10%), 11 mph
- Flagstaff: High 54, sunny (0%), 13 mph
- Phoenix: High 82, sunny (0%), 6 mph
- Show Low: High 58, sunny (0%), 14 mph
- Tucson: High 79, sunny (0%), 8 mph
- Yuma: High 83, sunny (0%), 10 mph
- Advantage: Obama (McCain +2 to +8), Kirkpatrick (AZ-01), Lord (AZ-03)
COLORADO (9 electoral votes)
- Denver: High 56, partly cloudy (20%), 10 mph
- Durango: High 52, partly cloudy (20%), 8 mph
- Grand Junction: High 57, partly cloudy (20%), 7 mph
- Lamar: High 64, partly cloudy (20%), 6 mph
- Vail: High 36, snow showers (30%), 8 mph
- Advantage: Obama (+4 to +12), Udall (+7), Markey (CO-04)
GEORGIA (15 electoral votes)
- Atlanta: High 68, mostly sunny (10%), 8 mph
- Augusta: High 71, partly cloudy (10%), 10 mph
- Columbus: High 69, mostly sunny (10%), 10 mph
- Dalton: High 70, sunny (10%), 6 mph
- Savannah: High 73, partly cloudy (10%), 11 mph
- Advantage: Obama (McCain to +6), Martin (Chambliss +3)
INDIANA (11 electoral votes)
- Evansville: High 72, mostly sunny (10%), 10 mph
- Fort Wayne: High 69, mostly sunny (10%), 10 mph
- Gary: High 65, partly cloudy (10%), 10 mph
- Indianapolis: High 71, partly cloudy (10%), 12 mph
- Advantage: Obama (mostly MoE), Montagano (IN-02)
IOWA (7 electoral votes)
- Davenport: High 70, few showers (30%), 16 mph
- Des Moines: High 68, thundershowers (60%), 19 mph
- Mason City: High 63, showers (40%), 20 mph
- Sioux City: High 63, showers (40%), 18 mph
- Waterloo: High 66, showers (60%), 18 mph
- Advantage: McCain (Obama +8 to +15)
Vote early!!!
KENTUCKY (8 electoral votes)
- Lexington: High 69, sunny (10%), 8 mph
- Louisville: High 71, sunny (10%), 8 mph
- Paducah: High 74, mostly sunny (10%), 10 mph
- Pikeville: High 69, sunny (10%), 2 mph
- Williamsburg: High 69, sunny (10%), 5 mph
- Advantage: Lunsford (McConnell tied to +7), Boswell (KY-02)
MICHIGAN (17 electoral votes)
- Detroit: High 64, partly cloudy (10%), 10 mph
- Kalamazoo: High 67, partly cloudy (10%), 11 mph
- Saginaw: High 65, partly cloudy (10%), 10 mph
- Sault Ste. Marie: High 54, mostly cloudy (20%), 10 mph
- Traverse City: High 59, partly cloudy (10%), 11 mph
- Advantage: Obama (up double digits), Schauer (MI-07), Peters (MI-09)
MINNESOTA (10 electoral votes)
- Bemidji: High 49, showers (40%), 13 mph
- Duluth: High 55, showers (40%), 15 mph
- Minneapolis: High 60, showers (40%), 18 mph
- Rochester: High 62, showers (40%), 14 mph
- Thief River Falls: High 54, few showers (30%), 13 mph
- Worthington: High 57, showers (40%), 21 mph
- Advantage: McCain (Obama up double digits), Coleman (margin of error), Kline (MN-02), Madia (MN-03), Bachmann (MN-06)
Early voting is limited, so "comfort" supplies are essential here
MISSISSIPPI (6 electoral votes)
- Biloxi: High 76, sunny (10%), 8 mph
- Greenville: High 73, sunny (20%), 8 mph
- Jackson: High 73, sunny (10%), 7 mph
- Tupelo: High 69, sunny (10%), 8 mph
- Advantage: Musgrove (Wicker +1) but bad weather's coming, and if it comes a little faster, the advantage will flip
MONTANA (3 electoral votes)
- Billings: High 51, partly cloudy (20%), 15 mph
- Libby: High 45, few showers (30%), 4 mph
- Little Bighorn: High 49, partly cloudy (20%), 15 mph
- Missoula: High 42, showers (40%), 4 mph
- Wolf Point: High 46, few showers (30%), 14 mph
- Advantage: Even, but there's a motivational edge, because of the fight over removing voters from the rolls in Missoula. (McCain +4)
NEBRASKA (1 of 5 electoral votes)
- Omaha: High 70, rain
- Advantage: Obama (McCain +5), Esch (CD-02)
NEVADA (5 electoral votes)
- Elko: High 51, showers (40%), 9 mph
- Ely: High 47, rain/snow showers (30%), 9 mph
- Las Vegas: High 72, mostly sunny (0%), 6 mph
- Reno: High 57, partly cloudy (20%), 8 mph
- Advantage: Obama (to +12), Titus (NV-03), Heller (NV-02)
Elko and Ely are Republican, so the rain there - in the driest part of the whole country!!! - will help us.
NEW HAMPSHIRE (4 electoral votes)
- Dixville Notch: High 49, partly cloudy (20%), 3 mph
- Keene: High 53, mostly sunny (20%), 4 mph
- Laconia: High 53, mostly sunny (20%), 4 mph
- Portsmouth: High 55, partly cloudy (20%), 6 mph
- Advantage: Obama (to +18), Shaheen (+7)
NEW MEXICO (5 electoral votes)
- Albuquerque: High 61, sunny (10%), 10 mph
- Clayton: High 65, sunny (10%), 17 mph
- Farmington: High 59, partly cloudy (20%), 8 mph
- Lordsburg: High 70, sunny (0%), 11 mph
- Roswell: High 71, sunny (0%), 12 mph
- Taos: High 53, sunny (10%), 10 mph
- Advantage: Obama (to +10), Udall, Heinrich, Teague - YAY!!!
NORTH CAROLINA (15 electoral votes)
- Asheville: High 57, mostly sunny (10%), 7 mph
- Charlotte: High 61, partly cloudy (10%), 8 mph
- Kitty Hawk: High 68, scattered showers (30%), 8 mph
- Raleigh-Durham: High 64, partly cloudy (20%), 7 mph
- Wilmington: High 72, scattered showers (30%), 14 mph
- Advantage: Obama (up to +7), Hagen (up to +7), Kissell (NC-08)
NORTH DAKOTA (3 electoral votes)
- Bismarck: High 51, partly cloudy (20%), 11 mph
- Grand Forks: High 53, few showers (30%), 13 mph
- Williston: High 48, few showers (30%), 12 mph
- Wounded Knee: High 55, partly cloudy (20%), 17 mph
- Advantage: McCain (mostly MoE: at least we weren't counting on this one!)
OREGON (7 electoral votes)
- Astoria: High 53, showers (40%), 9 mph
- Bend: High 49, showers (40%), 8 mph
- Burns: High 47, showers (40%), 10 mph
- Medford: High 52, showers (40%), 2 mph
- Pendleton: High 52, few showers (30%), 7 mph
- Portland: High 50, rainy (40%), 7 mph
- Advantage: None, they vote by mail in Oregon! Obama (+19 - and O'Reilly calls this a tossup?), Merkley (to +6)
VIRGINIA (13 electoral votes)
- Abingdon: High 62, mostly sunny (10%), 9 mph
- Alexandria: High 65, partly cloudy (10%), 7 mph
- Danville: High 63, partly cloudy (10%), 8 mph
- Harrisonburg: High 60, partly cloudy (10%), 4 mph
- Richmond: High 63, some clouds
- Virginia Beach: High 65, mostly cloudy (10%), 13 mph
- Advantage: Obama (to +9), Warner, Connolly (VA-11)
WASHINGTON (11 electoral votes)
- Neah Bay: High 47, showers (40%), 8 mph
- Okanogan: High 49, few showers (30%), 4 mph
- Seattle: High 44, rainy (40%), 7 mph
- Spokane: High 46, few showers (30%), 6 mph
- Vancouver: High 47, showers (40%), 8 mph
- Walla Walla: High 49, few showers (30%), 9 mph
- Advantage: Obama (+11 to +22), Burner (WA-08) - it always rains in Washington in November, so it won't be so big vote-depressing factor as elsewhere. Plus they're less used to it in the east, so affecting a more Republican area.
WEST VIRGINIA (5 electoral votes)
- Charleston: High 68, sunny (10%), 5 mph
- Martinsburg: High 59, partly cloudy (10%), 5 mph
- Morgantown: High 64, sunny (10%), 5 mph
- Advantage: Obama (McCain +6), Barth (WV-02)
WISCONSIN (10 electoral votes)
- Ashland: High 61, few showers (30%), 11 mph
- Eau Claire: High 64, few showers (30%), 17 mph
- Green Bay: High 63, partly cloudy (10%), 14 mph
- Madison: High 66, partly cloudy (10%), 15 mph
- Milwaukee: High 63, partly cloudy (10%), 14 mph
- Advantage: Obama (+7 to +11)
Voting early an especially good idea because of some bad weather.
WYOMING (3 electoral votes)
- Casper: High 45, few showers (30%), 14 mph
- Cheyenne: High 45, partly cloudy (20%), 22 mph
- Green River: High 38, partly cloudy (20%), 17 mph
- Jackson Hole: High 37, show shower (40%), 10 mph
- Sheridan: High 46, few showers (30%), 10 mph
- Advantage: Even? Good state for early voting to help Gary Trauner (WY-AL)
All in all, looking good! The weather looks almost unsettlingly mild for next Tuesday in most places. Global warming at work? If so, perhaps a small upside to it at this moment.
In the states that are kind of close (single digits), weather might hurt us in just two - Missouri and North Dakota (and we never really thought we'd take ND really anyhow). Most of the country will have good weather, which will help us in 4 Senate races (Kentucky, North Carolina, Mississippi and Georgia). For Presidential, it could help make the difference in Georgia, Indiana, North Carolina, Virgina and West Virginia, plus NE-02. Really not bad at all.
I don't know how to embed the brightcove video with the weather report at the beginning of the diary. If someone else does, please add in a comment. (There was a brightcove that went up earlier with an autoplay in it - I don't want to go there.)
A closing thought: The "Reverend" Pat Robertson has often made declarations about God's intentions based on the weather (e.g. Hurricane Katrina most famously). Putting aside the blasphemy of a "believer" who presumes to speak for God's Will, one wonders if Mr. Robertson is going to think that God has chosen the side of the Democrats this time around?