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Every State. Every race. Right here. All at once, Right Now!

(Swoosh, Gong!)

This is number 51 (the wrap-up) in my series of 50 entries since April, which has looked at each of the 50 states in terms of every race on that state's ticket--Presidential, Gubernatorial, Senate, House, State legislatures—the entire Great American Melting Pot!

In this, the final entry, I link to all 50 of the previous diaries (53, actually, since CA, TX and NY needed two diaries each to cover states that size), with the single race I identified as THE BIG ONE for each state, and a bit of last minute updating where appropriate. It makes a handy election guide and scorecard, if you want to compare the high-consequence races with the actual outcomes as the races are called Tuesday night.

Delaware(lower house of the State Legislature): http://www.dailykos.com/...

I did the official First State before they’d even had their primary. Although there’s an important chance to make the entire State legislature majority Democrat, the real suspense for Delaware is who Governor Markell will appoint to take the place of Vice President Biden in January.  If one of the younger Bidens isn’t given the slot, perhaps John Carney? I’m hoping they don’t decide on Ruth Minner...

Arkansas(Obama, for want of any other contest): http://www.dailykos.com/...

The major state contests aren’t up this year, the state legislature is solid Democrat, and neither Senator Pryor nor any of the four Congressional Representatives have opponents, so the only thing to watch here is the slim chance of an Obama win here. Even the Clintons chose to spend their time in West Virginia and helping Lunsford in Kentucky.

Illinois(Dan Seals, IL-10): http://www.dailykos.com/...

Obama and Durbin are safe. Watch for a likely House pickup in IL-11, a toss up for Dan Seals in IL-10 (seems I correctly called that the Big one for Illinois, even in April), and outside shots at the 6th, 13th and 18th, in the event of a landslide. In the 14th, Bill Foster looks safe in his rematch with the kooky Oberweiss.

Texas, Part One(Michael Skelly, TX-07):  http://www.dailykos.com/...

Texas, Part Two(Rick Noriega, TX-Sen): http://www.dailykos.com/...

Texas is falling into the predictable Republican frame—this time. It’s majority nonwhite, and once those South Texans get organized—I mean, really organized—watch out. Meanwhile, Noriega still has the barest shot at pulling off the Senate flip if we have a tsunami, and there are solid 2nd tier pickup chances in the 7th and 10th districts, and the need to defend the 22nd and 23rd.

Back in April, I went on a limb and predicted the 23rd (Rodriguez) was more likely to be lost to the GOP than the 22nd (Lampson), due to conservative soldiers abroad who register at Texas military bases to avoid taxes, and who don’t get reflected in any polls.  I still say Rodriguez will get a lower percentage than Lampson, though it’s reasonable that both will win. See if I’m right.

Utah(building infrastructure): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Not much to see here. UT-03 has an open seat due to primary loss, and the Republican is so disgusting—he wanted to set up internment camps for illegal aliens—that even Utah might possibly reject him, but don’t count on it. This is the Republican party we’re talking about.

Massachusetts(Using our majority to govern well): http://www.dailykos.com/...

Not much to see here either. Nothing in sight but wall to wall Democratic holds.

North Carolina(Kay Hagan, NC-Sen):  http://www.dailykos.com/...

Keep your eye on the Tarheel state; it’s got some of the biggest races in the country. If you believe the polls, Obama has the narrowest of leads here; Kay Hagan will beat Dole and become Senator, and the Governor’s race is much, much closer than I’d like it to be. NC-08 is a solid pickup chance for the netroots’ own Larry Kissell, and the 5th and 10th have outside chances at surprise flips—or at least, of closer than expected results, which will bring the districts to the DCCC’s attention for the next cycle. Just like what happened with the 8th last time around.

Hawaii(Using our majority to govern well; also, preparation for Governor, possible open Senate race in 2010): http://www.dailykos.com/...

Things are likely to happen in Hawaii in 2010. This time, our task is just to pave the way with the expected solid Democratic wins all round.

Mississippi(Ronnie Musgrove, MS-Sen): http://www.dailykos.com/...

Childers looks like he’ll hang on in the 1st Congressional district. The big question is, will Musgrove be the 60th Democratic Senator? He’s narrowly losing all the polls, but an underpolled AA turnout could put him over the top. Seems to me, the DSCC ad showing Wicker raising his own pay while voting down minimum wage increases for the poor is one of the most devastating ads in the homestretch.

Oregon(Jeff Merkley, OR-Sen):  http://www.dailykos.com/...

My home state! Expect a Merkley win if things are going well for us, and drink my health when it’s announced, ‘cause it’s the race I have been most involved in. OR-05 will be an easy hold, and we have a great shot at expanding our legislative majority in the lower House.

Ohio(Tie: Obama, and State Legislature, both houses): http://www.dailykos.com/...

As we reach the finish line, I’m calling the state legislature as more important than Obama, because there are so many more other competitive Obama states than I dreamed possible. Of course, we want it all, but we want a legislature that will allow us to redistrict Ohio to our liking.

Additionally, there’s as many as seven House districts with potential to flip to the Democrats, and none to the GOP. From bluest to reddest, those districts are: 16, 15, 1, 7, 2, 14 and 3.  With the exception of #14, all of these are MORE likely to switch than I indicated in my diary. Nice job, Ohio!

Maryland(Frank Kratovil, MD-01): http://www.dailykos.com/...

As I stated in the diary, MD-01 remains pretty much the only game in Maryland, and is has been getting better and better for Kratovil. Most pundits rate the race as a tossup or slight Dem lean. If Kratovil wins early, it will be a sign of a Democratic blowout. If he loses, Democrats may be held to only modest Congressional gains. If it’s too close to call for a while, we’re about at expectations.

North Dakota(State Legislature, upper house): http://www.dailykos.com/...

We have Obama to thank for the purpling of Big Sky country. We want those low-EV north-central states, and we need work to do it, and Obama has been paving the way. I have often called MT and the Dakotas as potential Democratic strongholds, if we want them bad enough, and here is a once-in-a-generation chance to stake our claim.  The thing is, both the GOP Governor and the Dem Representative at large will win overwhelmingly due to their personal popularity, so the big thing is to increase our presence in the state legislature. Even if it’s not a majority, we need to hold more seats and build up a bench. Pomeroy, Dorgan and Conrad won’t be around forever. WE NEED INFRASTRUCTURE in North Dakota!

Alabama(Bobby Bright, AL-02): http://www.dailykos.com/...

I called this one right. AL-02 is the biggest tossup district in the South, outside of tropical Florida, and our best claim at calling this a national victory, as opposed to an everything-but-the-South win.  AL-03 is also on the table as a third tier opportunity. If Josh Segall wins, watch out for a tsunami!

California, Part one(Charles Brown, CA-04): http://www.dailykos.com/...

California, Part two(Russ Warner, CA-26): http://www.dailykos.com/...

The biggest state in the union has surprisingly little going on as far as electing politicians, other than the Brown race in CA-04. Watch that one closely; it could go down to the wire.  The big election in CA, which I pretty much failed to address at all in my diary, is ballot measure 8, which would (as Gropenfuhrer said) declare "gay marriage to be between one man and one woman".  I’m surprised and disappointed, but there’s a chance that one will pass, even in solid blue California. So vote, and watch, and pray.

Vermont(Gaye Symington, VT-Gov):  http://www.dailykos.com/...

I called the Governor’s race "the big one" for want of a more likely target", and that one has since dropped off the map. Bad news is, Douglas likely gets another term. Good news is, there’s a veto proof Democratic legislature, and everything BUT Douglas is an easy Dem hold.

Iowa(Rob Hubler, IA-05): http://www.dailykos.com/...

Not only the 5th, but the 4th have a reasonable chance at a pickup (the spoiler candidate in the 4th, who I identified in the diary, thought better of it and dropped out). Harkin and Obama are solid wins here, so hope for coattails.

Virginia(Obama): http://www.dailykos.com/...

A VERY important state to watch, and one where I believe I correctly called Obama as all-important. Virginia is the first of the swing states to close, and the swing state where his lead is highest. If they call Virginia early for Obama, the election is over even before the Central Time states close. Which may in turn influence the states to the west.

Warner in the Senate and Connally in VA-11 are probably the two surest pickups in either house of Congress. VA-02 and -05 are still on the map as well, and wins there woulf be a harbinger of a landslide election.

Wyoming(Gary Trauner, WY-AL): http://www.dailykos.com/...

Trauner’s in a dead heat, which astonishes me. He has a real chance to pull it off, so watch that state on Tuesday. All other races are wall to wall GOP wins.

Pennsylvania (State Legislature, both houses): http://www.dailykos.com/...

Together with Virginia, PA is the other early sign of McCain loss. He’s thrown everything he’s got into a state where he lags by more than 10 points. It’s hard to see how he can win PA, and the inevitable calling of the state for Obama will preclude every possibility of McCain winning without Virginia. We want the state called almost the instant the polls close so that we can collectively yell, HA HA!

The State Senate, if it does not flip, may be the only legislative chamber in the 12 northeastern states still represented by Republicans. Let’s hope it joins the rest of the blue northeast.  We also have pickup chances in the 15th and especially in the 3rd districts, and defense to play in the 10th and 11th. One instance where I was wrong in my diaries was calling the 11th safe—it really is in more danger than the 10th, although I have yet to hear a satisfactory explanation why a gerrymandered blue district with a long term, popular  incumbent and hard economic times would suddenly consider switching to a minority party wingnut with negative charisma who financially ruined a city where he served as mayor, and who brings to the table only the tired old rants about Scary Brown People that have failed everywhere else. Nevertheless, this is the most tenuous of holds and one to watch on election night. Go figure.

New Mexico(Harry Teague, NM-02): http://www.dailykos.com/...

Solid for Obama, solid for Udall for Senate, and likely for Heinrich for NM-01. I believe I correctly picked the now-tossup Harry Teague in NM-02 as the one to watch. It could go either way, and if it goes our way, it cements NM as a solid blue state with a 100% Democratic delegation. It also gives Democrats control over every House district on the Mexican border, which doesn’t really mean that much, but it’s a nice thing to say—same as if Himes wins CT-04 and we get bragging rights over the whole New England House delegation.

Kentucky(Bruce Lunsford, KY-SEN): http://www.dailykos.com/...

Slight edge to The Penguin, still, but the defeat of the Minority Leader would be a symbolic component in the repudiation of the GOP brand, as well as payback for Tom Daschle 2004. There’s also potential pickups in KY-01 and the open -02.

Nebraska(Scott Kleeb, NB-SEN): http://www.dailykos.com/...

We still have longshot hopes for Obama in the 2nd district—one of few states where you can get one EV by winning a Congressional district while losing the state overall; for hunky Scott Kleeb in the Senate; and for Jim Esch in NE-02. The safe money, unfortunately, is on the Republicans keeping the status quo here. Or, at least, if we win something here, it’ll be part of the biggest GOP drubbing in recent history. Keep your fingers crossed.

Friggin’ IDAHO (Larry LaRocco, ID-Sen): http://www.dailykos.com/...

I picked the wrong race. LaRocco won’t make it without a real miracle; however, Minnick still has a decent shot at taking out Bill "The worst of the worst" Sali in ID-01. Second prize is, Sali wins and the GOP is stuck with him representing the party brand before the world for another 2 years.

Maine (CHEERS to Tom Allen, ME-Sen): http://www.dailykos.com/...

For my money, the most disappointing contest of the cycle is in Bill in Portland’s home state. This is the only solid Obama state where our candidate for US Senate does not lead. In fact, he never has, despite running what looks like a great campaign. I want Allen, but I can’t bet on him. The only other thing to note here is how well we do at expanding our State Senate majority; it’s thin of late.

Wisconsin (State Legislature, both houses): http://www.dailykos.com/...

The big ticket races are snoozers. Obama’s managed to get WI to safe status, and Kagan in WI-08 is a likely hold, with none of the others even on the map. Watch to see if we capture the state legislature.

New Jersey(Linda Stender, NJ-07): http://www.dailykos.com/...

The three big ones here are Congressional Districts 3, 5 and 7; a big Obama wave could put all three over the top.  The one that interests me most is Dennis Shulman in the 5th, which unfortunately still has a small edge for the Republican incumbent. Adler in the 3rd has an equal and opposite Democratic edge, while Stender in the 7th has no clear favorite. Obama and Lautenberg win by a mile.  NJ has a history of underpolling the Democratic vote, so keep your fingers crossed.

Oklahoma (Andrew Rice, OK-Sen): http://www.dailykos.com/...

Rice looked promising, but is now at Hail-Mary pass status, and none of the other Republican races are going anywhere.  We’ll target the Sooner State for more and better progress next time.

South Dakota(State Legislature, upper house): http://www.dailykos.com/...

See "North Dakota". We need infrastructure. Best case, we hold McCain to a near tie here, and make gains in the legislature.

Colorado(Obama): http://www.dailykos.com/...

Looks like our choice of convention site paid off. Obama and Udall have nailed it in the high profile statewide races, and I’m calling Colorado the "safety", in case somehow the winds blow the wrong way and we lose ALL of the other twice-W states, this is the state for the last stand.

Meanwhile, Betsy Markey’s chances of taking CO-04 from the homophobic Musgrave have become much better since my Colorado diary. Watch for it to go down to the wire, with coattails from Obama and Udall maybe making the difference.

Georgia(Jim Martin, GA-Sen): http://www.dailykos.com/...

When I wrote this one, I was discouraged about Georgia being on the map at all, but the Peach state surprised and pleased me. I correctly tagged the Senate race as all-important, and that’s the one to watch. After six years in office, Saxby is STILL mostly remembered for smearing Max Cleland. What does that say about his performance? I’m praying he goes down.  Conventional wisdom says neither of them will make it to above 50%, and so we’re headed for a December runoff, which may well determine whether we get to 60 Senators. Wise talking heads in ties say that a runoff ensures Saxby’s re-election, because those silly, lazy black people will never turn out to vote twice, not once Obama’s election is over. Those same people said Obama had no chance against McCain, or Clinton, and would never ever win a Southern state, and so I’m not convinced.

The House races, both the potentially competitive Dem ones like Marshall and the GOP foot-in-mouth opportunities like Westmoreland, don’t look like they’re going anywhere. But Obama has a real (if outside) shot at the state. If they don’t call this early-reporting state for McCain right away, the race is over before the Pacific states close.

Rhode Island(governing well): http://www.dailykos.com/...

Nothing but solid Democratic victories here. Move along.  (but good job, Ocean Staters!)

Michigan(State legislature, upper house): http://www.dailykos.com/...

Safe for Obama and Senator Levin. Watch for the State Senate to flip, and for Congressional pickup opportunities in the 7th and 9th districts. The 7th is a likely pickup; the 9th; tossup.

Alaska(Mark Begich, AK-Sen): http://www.dailykos.com/...

I wrote this diary just days before the GOP VP choice shook up the game.  Palin managed to dissuade Obama from a visit to Alaska (the only state he never went to, even once) and stopped his chances to win the Last Frontier. However, that seems to be the only state and the only Alaska race impacted by Palin. We’re still favored to take the Stevens (that’s "GUILTY! GUILTY! GUILTY!") Senate seat, and the Congressman At Large House seat, and the State Senate—with the state House in reach as well. Running the table on these races would indicate a red-to-blue sea change similar to what New Hampshire did in 2006, as well as making Palin a lame duck minority party member when she returns home in her Saks suit with her tail between her legs and her political capital exhausted.  There will be grounds to stay up late watching the returns on this one.

Missouri (Jay Nixon, MO-Gov): http://www.dailykos.com/...

Watch Missouri closely, in this election and in every other one to come. As you see in this diary, I consider the Show-Me state the political median of America, likely to be ranked 25 or 26 in any red to blue lining up of the states, and an absolute must for any election. When I wrote the MO diary, it was soon after the GOP convention, Obama was polling behind, and I urged (pretty much DEMANDED) that Obama send urgent care to this state. I took some heat for it from people who called Missouri unwinnable. Their apologies are now accepted.

Downticket, there’s the all-important Governor’s race, in which Jay Nixon will likely win and therefore guarantee that Republicans will not run the table on redistricting; there are gains to be made in both houses of the state legislature, and there are two high profile House pickup opportunities: Kay Barnes in MO-06 and Judy Baker in MO-09. Surprisingly, Baker is currently the one of those who is most favored to win.

West Virginia (GORGEOUS Anne Barth, WV-02): http://www.dailykos.com/...

In 2006, my schoolboy crush was on Kirsten Gillibrand (NY-20), who polled behind consistently but ended up a surprise winner. I hope Barth does, too. People tag West Virginia as a rough state for Democrats, but really, Democrats hold almost every office in the state, and wins by Barth and Obama (he’s behind, but not by as much as you think, is campaigning determinedly with help from the Clintons, and has a real chance to pull it off) would make WV the most solidly blue state in the country.

South Carolina (Linda Ketner, SC-01, Rob Miller, SC-02): http://www.dailykos.com/...

Ketner and Miller are the only races on the map, which is otherwise safe wins for the two Dem representatives and the Republican everything else. Even SC-01 and 02 are considered longshot pickup opportunities at best, but I keep going back to them. Ketner especially; she’s an overachieving powerhouse and I’m dang glad she’s on OUR side. This is a rough district for Democrats, and I hope that, if she doesn’t make it, the Democratic party is smart enough to nurture Ketner for something else, like maybe a run against deMint or for an open statewide office in 2010.

Nevada (Jill Derby, NV-02): http://www.dailykos.com/...

Nevada went for the winner with less than 51% in each of the last four elections, and has a slight Obama lean today, so expect a narrow Obama win, probably declared only after California puts Obama over the top. Watch also for a possible sweep of the silver state’s three congressional districts. Dena Titus in the 3rd is moderately likely to flip; Jill Derby in the 2nd would be part of a re-alignment landslide.

New York, Part One (State Senate): http://www.dailykos.com/...

New York, Part Two(State Senate): http://www.dailykos.com/...

New York has four hot congressional races, all currently Republican. In order of likeliest to least likely to flip, they are the 13th, 25th, 29th and 26th.  But the real prize is the State Senate, an almost certain turnover of historic proportions, and a big nail in the coffin of the state’s GOP presence.

Tennessee (State Senate): http://www.dailykos.com/...
One of two or three states where Republicans are likely to do BETTER than in 2004; if you know why, please explain so we can do something about it. Senator Alexander and the nine Congressional seats look like they won’t go anywhere, and Obama gave up here long ago. The best thing that could happen for us would be a flip of a State Senate seat or two, which would regain Democrats control of the State legislature.

Washington (Darcy Burner, WA-08) http://www.dailykos.com/...

An easy Obama win, likely to be called along with Oregon and California the minute the polls close on the Pacific coast. Two downticket races to watch: The Governorship, which is expected to stay in Democrat Christine Gregoire’s hands, and WA-08, where our own Darcy Burner is in one of the tightest races in the nation in my very favorite contest outside of my home state. If Burner wins, she will become a party leader quickly and inspire trust in the party brand way outside the district, so root for her big time.

Minnesota (Al Franken, MN-Sen): http://www.dailykos.com/...

Al Franken is neck and neck in the Senate race, and is a vital step on the road to 60 Senators (by my count he’s the 8th pickup, and the 59th seat, meaning the weakest of those that currently lean our way). Hope for long Obama coattails here.  We also have a likely House pickup in MN-03, a tossup (thanks to Bachmann’s big mouth and affinity for Joe McCarthy) in MN-06, and a longshot in MN-02. A complete shutout is possible, and a thorough drubbing of the Republicans is even money. Watch this state closely.

Connecticut(Jim Himes, CT-04): http://www.dailykos.com/...

Lieberman and Rell aren’t up this time around, unfortunately, but the gains we made in 2006 appear safe. The one to watch here is CT-04, the last New England House district still held by a Republican. Go Himes!

Kansas: ( Don Betts, KS-04): http://www.dailykos.com/...

Boyda likely to hold on in KS-02, but Betts and Slattery need miracles. At least it doesn’t seem likely to get much worse. We’ll need to target Kansas better next time, especially if Sibelius runs for Brownback’s Senate seat.

Florida (The South Florida Trio, FL-18, 21 and 25): http://www.dailykos.com/...

There’s a lot to watch for in Florida, from election hijacking hijinks that may or may not be enough to grab the state’s 27 EVs from Obama, to at least EIGHT pickup opportunities in House Districts 8, 9, 13, 15, 18, 21, 24 and 25.  Good for them, because the 16th is the most likely Dem loss in America (wouldn’t you know it, I wrote my diary just before the Mahoney scandal broke).
Of the South Florida Trio, the most likely win is the 21st, followed by the 25th and the 18th. All are possible, and picking up more than one would shake up Florida politics for good, maybe even make FL a blue-leaning overall state in time for 2010.

Louisiana (Don Cazayoux, LA-06): http://www.dailykos.com/...

Landrieu’s safe by now. We have outside shots at districts 1 and 7, a very slight edge in keeping the 6th (Go Cazayoux!), and our best pickup opportunity, the 4th, is headed for certain runoff after the election day vote picks the nominees for both parties.  Also, watch the 2nd district, where the embarrassingly corrupt incumbent Dem faces a conservative DINO. The winner will be a bad Dem no matter what, and I don’t care to endorse either of them.

Montana (Linda McCulloch, Secretary of State): http://www.dailykos.com/...

Easy win for Schweitzer as Governor. Senator (D) and Rep at large (R) not on the map. Slight chance of Obama carrying the state, and both houses of the legislature are almost tied. Secretary of State has a stronger Dem lean than when I first blogged about it, as the incumbent Republican’s clumsy attempt at voter purging has backfired with the electorate in a way I only DREAMED would happen in Ohio and the South.

Indiana (Jill Long Thompson, Governor): http://www.dailykos.com/...

Damn. Jill Long Thompson’s bid for Governor is vital to our chances of a toehold in this state that may be considering Democrats more than they used to, and yet it doesn’t look like it will happen. Not quite as heartbreaking as the Allen-Collins race in Maine, but definitely one of the top two or three disappointments, barring a miracle.  However, Obama’s in a dead heat and could be the first Democrat to carry Hoosiervill for President since before I was born. Also, there’s a possible stunning upset in IN-03, while our three pickups from 2006 look safe.

New Hampshire ( Jeanne Shaheen, NH-Sen): http://www.dailykos.com/...

Edge to the Democrats in all important races, but be sure to kick out the vote for Carol Shea-Porter in NH-01, who isn’t as safe as I’d like. Shaheen and Obama are declared winners very soon after the polls close, and the State Legislature will stay Democratic, though whether it loses many or few seats is anyone’s guess and the surest indicator of whether 2006 was a sea change election that transformed the state for the foreseeable future, or whether it could go back to the GOP soon.

Arizona (Bob Lord, AZ-03): http://www.dailykos.com/...

Gosh, it feels like only yesterday that I wrote this one. Wonder why.  Anyhow, the Lord race is still by far the biggest one on the map, although the big optimists are making more noise in the final days about the possibility that Obama could take McCain’s home state without even having campaigned here. Last minute polls have shown them within TWO points. Personally, I’d rather have Georgia (and coattails that bring Martin to the Senate with no runoff); West Virginia (bringing a bedrock blue state back into the fold) or North Dakota and Montana (helping to cement the "Solid North" strategy) than just one more needless slap in the face to a pathetic old man who is going down the drain, having sold his soul and received NOTHING in return.  I almost feel sorry for the poor guy. No, wait a minute. No I don’t. But still.

And THAT, my fellow Kosters, has been my 50-state, every-region, every-race election analysis!  Thank you for reading.

Good Night, and Good Luck.

Originally posted to AdmiralNaismith on Thu Oct 30, 2008 at 08:33 AM PDT.

Poll

Pick a state with fascinating electoral prospects

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| 59 votes | Vote | Results

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tips, Recs, Stars and Stripes (17+ / 0-)

    TA-DAH!!!

    Thanks for bearing with me through all that.

    And a shout out to BENAWU, Ubergeek, Plf515 and the othres who did similar series and inspired this one from me.

    And may Democrats win landslides across this great country on Election Day!

    REPUBLICANS: The Older White Meat.

    by AdmiralNaismith on Thu Oct 30, 2008 at 08:35:40 AM PDT

  •  Epic Effort (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    AdmiralNaismith, paintitblue

    I've read quite a few over the times...thnx!

  •  Wow. Just wow. Amazing, Admiral. (4+ / 0-)
  •  Thanks for these! (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    AdmiralNaismith

    Here's to a (hopefully) blue MO.

    Paint the town blue, 'cause baby, red is so passe--The Pierces

    by paintitblue on Thu Oct 30, 2008 at 08:45:53 AM PDT

  •  Thanks Admiral, from Iowa 5. (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    AdmiralNaismith, pi1304, jlms qkw

    I linked to your Iowa diary in writing about Rob Hubler over the months since you wrote that one.  I appreciate your effort, and am a fan of your entire project.

    Late word is that King did a last-minute TV buy, which is a good sign, and Hubler has raised enough to buy some TV of his own, which was in doubt until recently.

    Kossacks have helped him out, although not to the degree they did Elwyn Tinklenberg, alas.  Having Olbermann call Steve King "Michelle Bachmann's only rival for least stable member of the House of Representatives ...Fifth District, but 17th century," didn't hurt either.

    •  Obviously, Olbermann never met Bill Sali (4+ / 0-)

      Or Jean Schmidt, or Adrian Smith, or Jim Bunning, or anyone from the Oklahoma delegation.

      But King definitely is in the top 10, which, in a party of crackpots, is still quite an achievement. Hopefully, in a couple months you'll be represented by someone else.

      Will we say that King was brought down by Hubler, or by hubris? Probably both.

      REPUBLICANS: The Older White Meat.

      by AdmiralNaismith on Thu Oct 30, 2008 at 08:51:06 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  both (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        AdmiralNaismith

        King had no campaign at all until very recently, did some  town halls in August, and "Ask Steve" events in October.  His first TV ad went up about a week ago, in which he claimed credit for funding widening of Highway 20, which runs east to west through the middle of the state and is two-lane for most of the way from Sioux City to Fort Dodge.  Hubler immediately jumped on him for lying, since the state DOT used state money to announce the expansion, and King has never gotten any money from Congress for it.  Local TV press picked up the issue and ran it for a couple of days.  Don't know if it registered with people.

        Hubler has run a dogged campaign, putting over 200,000 miles on his car while trying to talk to every last man, woman and dog in the 5th district.  One of my great frustrations has been to watch Kossacks throw money at Tinklenberg that he will probably not be able to spend all of, while Steve King, who is every bit as bad as Bachmann, gets a mostly free pass.

        The great Joe Trippi hasn't lifted a finger for him either, as far as I can see.

  •  jason chaffetz (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    AdmiralNaismith

    is ahead overwhelmingly in a poll from ?yesterday
    http://www.sltrib.com/...

    the dems are trying to pick up a few state house seats to gnaw away at the republican supermajority before the next census/redistricting.  

    other than that, it's just seeing how high obama can get - 30% probably, 40% in our fantasy lives.  

    •  Yeah, yeah, of course he is. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jlms qkw

      I had some smidgeon of hope that even Republicans would have enough honor to reject THAT, but what can you do?

      At least we'll have someone to point to as worst of the worst in case Sali and Schmidt and Musgrave all go down.

      REPUBLICANS: The Older White Meat.

      by AdmiralNaismith on Thu Oct 30, 2008 at 08:52:47 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  and Garrett... (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        AdmiralNaismith, pi1304, jlms qkw

        ...oh, there are many, many others.

        The way to win is not to move to the right wing; the way to win is to move to the right policy. -- Nameless Soldier

        by N in Seattle on Thu Oct 30, 2008 at 09:53:59 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I love Dennis Shulman (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          N in Seattle, pi1304, jlms qkw

          If he loses, I will be in tears at the implication that America failed to deserve him. That man's mind is the kind of mind we need making decisions in Washington right now. Like we need Burner, and Ketner, and Segall and so many others who are in close, close contests.

          When Obama's looking to fill his administration, he should take a close look at some of our best Democrats in red districts who don't quite make it. Shulman may not have enough government experience to be Cabinet Post material, but there's a niche for him somewhere that he could be appointed to.

          REPUBLICANS: The Older White Meat.

          by AdmiralNaismith on Thu Oct 30, 2008 at 10:40:57 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  I contributed my last meager dimes (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    AdmiralNaismith

    to Merkley right before I clicked in here.  It's my last donation of this political season.

    Thanks so much for this series.  We'll be using it extensively this weekend as I put together the printouts to hang on the wall at our election night party.  I'll be acting as Vanna that night, highlighting all of the races in lovely blue as they go Dem across the country.

    Your work is appreciated!

    CJB in Portland

    Witty remark here.

    by CJB on Thu Oct 30, 2008 at 09:01:42 AM PDT

  •  I hope you're right about WA-Gov (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    AdmiralNaismith, Turbonerd

    I'm still not particularly confident about Chris's chance, though the polls appear to have settled in with a margin in her favor of about 2%.  

    Which would be, compared to 2004, a momentous landslide.  Although I don't expect to, and most assurely don't want to, have the "opportunity" to reproduce my WA-Gov series on the recounts, I'm pulling my old spreadsheet templates out of mothballs.  Just in case...

    I suppose I should set up a WA-08 spreadsheet as well.

    The way to win is not to move to the right wing; the way to win is to move to the right policy. -- Nameless Soldier

    by N in Seattle on Thu Oct 30, 2008 at 09:52:41 AM PDT

    •  Her winning margin will be in part due to YOU (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      N in Seattle, pi1304, Turbonerd

      Maybe I've been complacent about Gregoire. It's not in the bag and won't be until after the polls close, but I just can't see her losing after having pulled it off in 2004.

      Blue state. Much better result for Obama upticket than what Kerry got four years ago. Gregoire as an incumbent who's done a good job, gotta mean better name recognition and the advantages of being an incumbent. Wave year for Dems as opposed to the disaster 4 years ago. Rossi being a crybaby in public after the last election, hasn't done anything to improve himself in the interim, plus the late breaking buildergate scandal. Gregoire logically ought to do much better than her last skin of the teeth victory. What have I missed?

      The west coast is solid blue. Once we get WA-08 and Oregon's senate seat nailed down, no Republican need apply in WA or OR statewide for the next generation.

      REPUBLICANS: The Older White Meat.

      by AdmiralNaismith on Thu Oct 30, 2008 at 10:37:20 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Thank you! (mostly) but about Ohio... (0+ / 0-)

    First and foremost, thank you for taking on this project. It took an amazing amount of time and effort to put these together.

    I didn't see your Ohio diary when it posted back in May. Excellent analysis for the most part, but I do take issue with your dismissal of the sex scandal in the Ohio AG's office.

    It's not just about the affair. IMO, that's for Mr. Dann and his wife to work through. The issue for me was that Dann permitted an atmosphere in the AG's office that allowed sexual harassment to flourish. Removing him was the right thing to do.

    Politically speaking, it was also the smart thing to do: by taking on a disfunctional member of their own party, Democrats inoculated themselves against the smears that will come in 2010 against a sitting governor and Secretary of State, and put themselves in a good position to keep the AG's office. Those three offices are 3/5 of the committee that will control the Congressional reapportionment process (with representatives from the state house and senate).

    Insisting that Dann step down was good long-term thinking for a bluer Ohio in 2010 and beyond.

    You've got to do your own growing, no matter how tall your grandfather was. - Irish Proverb

    by Turbonerd on Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 07:00:03 AM PDT

    •  At least Dann didn't wear diapers. (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      BENAWU, Turbonerd

      Seems to me the liberal, liberated party should be OK with our politicians having joyous, active sex lives and fight against the prejudice that having a lot of fun in the sack is incompatible with public service.

      Seems to me the other party, and not ours, should be the party of colorless, stodgy, uptight people who sleep in twin beds and have the Bible prominently displayed while Caged and Chained Biker Women Eating Hay is hidden in their basements.

      Would today's Democratic party feel compelled, for safety, to throw JFK, MLK and William Douglas under the bus early in their careers? It would be a shame. Heck, I'd even miss (the Texas, not the Ohio) Charlie Wilson.

      If your mileage varies, well, it's a big tent and we're on the same side anyhow.

      REPUBLICANS: The Older White Meat.

      by AdmiralNaismith on Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 08:23:35 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  its not so much about the sex (0+ / 0-)

        It certainly didn't hurt Rep. La Tourette when he was caught sleeping with one of his lobbyists. Although and he did eventually get a divorce and marry the lobbyist (who still lobbies him, btw). But IOKIYAR. Those Republican voices of faux outrage were nowhere to be found when that happened.

        And I think we do agree that most Americans are way too uptight about sexuality. But most Ohioans don't think that way, and those are the same people he would be trying to convince to vote for him this year.

        You've got to do your own growing, no matter how tall your grandfather was. - Irish Proverb

        by Turbonerd on Sat Nov 01, 2008 at 06:31:08 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Good job (0+ / 0-)

    Well done great series fantastic reading.

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