Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 10/28-30. Likely voters. MoE 4% (No trend lines)
McCain (R) 48
Obama (D) 47
Early voters (17 percent of sample)
McCain (R) 42
Obama (D) 54
I can't believe we may actually win Arizona. And I have a bonus treat for you guys:
If the 2010 election for U.S. Senate were held today for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Janet Napolitano the Democrat and John McCain the Republican?
McCain (R) 45
Napolitano (D) 53
Janet Napolitano is Arizona's governor, currently serving her second term. Her favorability rating of 67-29 is higher than Palin's, which is 65-35 in a poll we'll be releasing in a few hours. Napolitano's job approval rating of 69-21 similarly beats Palin's 61-37. Palin may be giving the Rick Lowrys of the world starbursts, but Napolitano is wowing them with competent governance, and it looks like Arizonans wouldn't mind sending her to Washington instead of McCain.
Update: McCain forced to campaign in Arizona on Monday. I bet he wishes he could spend the evening in Pennsylvania, Ohio, or Florida.
ARIZONA POLL RESULTS – OCTOBER 2008
The Research 2000 Arizona Poll was conducted from October 28 through October
30, 2008. A total of 600 likely voters who vote regularly in state elections were interviewed statewide by telephone.
Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges was utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the state. Quotas were assigned to reflect the voter registration of distribution by county.
The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 4% percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the “true” figure would fall within that range if the entire population were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as for gender or party affiliation.
SAMPLE FIGURES:
Men 288 (48%)
Women 312 (52%)
Democrats 204 (34%)
Republicans 216 (36%)
Other 180 (30%)
18-29 108 (18%)
30-44 192 (32%)
45-59 186 (31%)
60+ 114 (19%)
White 438 (73%)
Black 18 (3%)
Hispanic 114 (19%)
Other 30 (5%)
Voted 102 (17%)
Not Voted 498 (83%)
QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of John McCain? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):
VERY FAV FAV UNFAV VERY UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 21% 37% 28% 13% 1%
FAV UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 58% 41% 1%
MEN 62% 37% 1%
WOMEN 54% 45% 1%
DEMOCRATS 37% 62% 1%
REPUBLICANS 87% 13% -
INDEPENDENTS 48% 51% 1%
18-29 53% 45% 2%
30-44 61% 38% 1%
45-59 56% 43% 1%
60+ 62% 37% 1%
QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Janet Napolitano? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):
VERY FAV FAV UNFAV VERY UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 28% 39% 21% 8% 4%
FAV UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 67% 29% 4%
MEN 63% 35% 2%
WOMEN 71% 23% 6%
DEMOCRATS 86% 11% 3%
REPUBLICANS 44% 51% 5%
INDEPENDENTS 73% 24% 3%
18-29 71% 24% 5%
30-44 65% 32% 3%
45-59 69% 26% 5%
60+ 63% 34% 3%
QUESTION: Do you approve or disapprove of the job Janet Napolitano is doing as Governor?
APPROVE DISAPPROVE NOT SURE
ALL 69% 21% 10%
MEN 63% 35% 2%
WOMEN 59% 39% 2%
DEMOCRATS 92% 6% 2%
REPUBLICANS 26% 73% 1%
INDEPENDENTS 57% 41% 2%
18-29 55% 43% 2%
30-44 66% 32% 2%
45-59 59% 38% 3%
60+ 64% 35% 1%
QUESTION: If the 2010 election for U.S. Senate were held today for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Janet Napolitano the Democrat and John McCain
the Republican?
NAPOLITANO MCCAIN UNDECIDED
ALL 53% 45% 2%
MEN 49% 50% 1%
WOMEN 57% 40% 3%
DEMOCRATS 87% 12% 1%
REPUBLICANS 17% 81% 2%
INDEPENDENTS 58% 39% 3%
18-29 57% 41% 2%
30-44 50% 47% 3%
45-59 56% 43% 1%
60+ 49% 49% 2%
WHITE 45% 54% 1%
BLACK 85% 6% 9%
HISPANIC 76% 21% 3%
OTHER 70% 25% 5%
QUESTION: If the election for President were held today would you vote for the Democratic ticket of Barack Obama and Joe Biden the Republican ticket of John McCain and Sarah Palin or another candidate?
MCCAIN OBAMA OTHER UNDECIDED
ALL 48% 47% 3% 2%
VOTED 42% 54% 4%
NOT VOTED 49% 46% 3%
MEN 53% 42% 4% 1%
WOMEN 43% 52% 2% 3%
DEMOCRATS 14% 84% 1% 1%
REPUBLICANS 89% 9% 1% 1%
INDEPENDENTS 38% 51% 7% 4%
18-29 44% 51% 3% 2%
30-44 50% 45% 4% 1%
45-59 46% 49% 3% 2%
60+ 52% 44% 2% 2%
WHITE 57% 39% 3% 1%
BLACK 5% 89% 1% 5%
HISPANIC 24% 68% 3% 5%
OTHER 28% 63% 3% 6%