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Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 10/27-29. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (10/14-16 results)

Lummis (R) 49 (43)
Trauner (D) 45 (44)

Oof, that sucks. What's happening here?

First of all, the 21 percent of Republicans who were undecided two weeks ago are making up their minds. While Lummis was at 65-14 with Republicans last poll, she's now at 72-21. That means those undecided Republicans are splitting 50-50 between the two candidates. Pretty good for a Democrat, but not good enough since Trauner's 58-33 lead among independents is now 53-41 -- a 13-point net drop.

Our own fundraising efforts have allowed Trauner to purchase time in Salt Lake City to hit southwestern Wyoming, and the campaign is closing strong both on the air and on the ground game.

Factoid -- the two last polls of this race in 2006 had Trauner trailing by four points (Wyoming Tribune-Eagle) and seven points (Mason-Dixon). Trauner lost to then-incumbent Barbara Cubin by 1,000 votes. This year will once again go down to the wire.

In the presidential, the relatively close race we saw this summer (13 points) has evaporated. McCain leads 61-36. However, that is still 15 points ahead of where Kerry ran in 2004 (69-29). If those margins hold, it'll mark progress.

On the web:
Gary Trauner for Congress
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WYOMING POLL RESULTS – OCTOBER 2008
                                                                 
The Research 2000 Wyoming Poll was conducted from October 27 through October 29, 2008. A total of 500 likely voters who vote regularly in state elections were interviewed statewide by telephone.

Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges was utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the state. Quotas were assigned to reflect the voter registration of distribution by county.

The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 4.5% percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the “true” figure would fall within that range if the entire population were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as for gender or party affiliation.


SAMPLE FIGURES:

Men                  245 (48%)
Women                255 (52%)

Democrats            116 (24%)
Republicans          242 (48%)
Independents/Other   142 (28%)

18-29                 83 (18%)
30-44                153 (30%)
45-59                166 (33%)
60+                   98 (19%)


QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Gary Trauner? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):

                 VERY FAV       FAV        UNFAV     VERY UNFAV    NO OPINION

ALL                 14%         42%         25%         14%          5%

                   FAV         UNFAV       NO OPINION

ALL                 56%         39%          5%

MEN                 54%         42%          4%
WOMEN               58%         36%          6%

DEMOCRATS           85%         13%          2%
REPUBLICANS         40%         57%          3%
INDEPENDENTS        57%         33%         10%

18-29               61%         35%          4%
30-44               55%         39%          6%
45-59               54%         41%          5%
60+                 55%         42%          3%


QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Cynthia Lummis? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):

                 VERY FAV       FAV        UNFAV     VERY UNFAV    NO OPINION

ALL                 17%         43%         22%         14%          4%

                   FAV         UNFAV       NO OPINION

ALL                 60%         36%          4%

MEN                 63%         35%          2%
WOMEN               57%         37%          6%

DEMOCRATS           31%         66%          3%
REPUBLICANS         80%         17%          3%
INDEPENDENTS        57%         38%          5%

18-29               55%         41%          4%
30-44               60%         35%          5%
45-59               61%         35%          4%
60+                 63%         34%          3%


QUESTION: If the election for Congress were held today would you vote for Gary Trauner the Democrat Cynthia Lummis the Republican or David Herbert the Libertarian?

                   LUMMIS      TRAUNER     HERBERT     UNDECIDED  

ALL                 49%         45%          2%          4%

MEN                 51%         44%          3%          2%
WOMEN               47%         46%          1%          6%

DEMOCRATS           12%         84%          1%          3%
REPUBLICANS         72%         21%          1%          6%
INDEPENDENTS        41%         53%          5%          1%

18-29               46%         49%          1%          4%
30-44               49%         45%          2%          4%
45-59               51%         44%          2%          3%
60+                 50%         43%          1%          6%


QUESTION: If the election for U.S. Senate were held today would you vote for Nick Carter the Democrat or John Barasso the Republican?

                   BARASSO     CARTER      UNDECIDED  

ALL                 60%         35%          5%

MEN                 63%         33%          4%
WOMEN               57%         37%          6%

DEMOCRATS            8%         89%          3%
REPUBLICANS         86%          7%          7%
OTHER               59%         39%          2%

18-29               57%         40%          3%
30-44               63%         32%          5%
45-59               61%         34%          5%
60+                 60%         35%          5%


QUESTION: If the election for U.S. Senate were held today would you vote for Chris Rothfuss the Democrat or Mike Enzi the Republican?

                   ENZI        ROTHFUSS    UNDECIDED  

ALL                 62%         35%          3%

MEN                 64%         34%          2%
WOMEN               60%         36%          4%

DEMOCRATS           13%         84%          3%
REPUBLICANS         89%          8%          3%
OTHER               57%         40%          3%

18-29               57%         39%          4%
30-44               65%         32%          3%
45-59               63%         34%          3%
60+                 62%         35%          3%


QUESTION: If the election for President were held today would you vote for the Democratic ticket of Barack Obama and Joe Biden the Republican ticket of John McCain and Sarah Palin or another candidate?

                   MCCAIN      OBAMA       OTHER       UNDECIDED  

ALL                 61%         36%          2%          1%

MEN                 65%         32%          2%          1%
WOMEN               57%         40%          2%          1%

DEMOCRATS           10%         87%          1%          2%
REPUBLICANS         89%          8%          2%          1%
OTHER               56%         41%          2%          1%

18-29               57%         41%          1%          1%
30-44               63%         34%          2%          1%
45-59               62%         35%          2%          1%
60+                 61%         36%          2%          1%

Originally posted to Daily Kos on Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 04:15 PM PDT.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Progress (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    timbuck, dotalbon

    That's what progressives are all about, right?

    Jesus Swept, coming this Thanksgiving.

    by Anglico on Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 04:18:38 PM PDT

    •  "Progress" in Wyoming = Ugh (0+ / 0-)

      From the folks who gave us the Torturer in Chief, Dick Cheney, it's hard to be too comforted by "progress" in Wyoming's collective brain.  

      Eventually (like Montana) it may get there.  But civilization will be slow in coming to come to a state where roadside fireworks stores are major cultural sites.  

  •  I have a lot of family in Wyoming. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    dotalbon

    I never really thought we'd take it.  But I still love them.

    You are entitled to express your opinion. But you are NOT entitled to agreement.

    by DawnG on Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 04:20:01 PM PDT

  •  I voted for Trauner today (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    docangel, timbuck, dotalbon

    We can do this thing.  The hardcore R's have made up their minds.  The remaining undecided are ours.

    Oh, and Gary has a fantastic ground game.

    Let's finish strong!!!

  •  pedantic but... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    dotalbon

    A factoid is something that's false.

    factoid
     (făk'toid) pronunciation
    n.
      1. A piece of unverified or inaccurate information that is presented in the press as factual, often as part of a publicity effort, and that is then accepted as true because of frequent repetition: "What one misses finally is what might have emerged beyond both facts and factoids—a profound definition of the Marilyn Monroe phenomenon" (Christopher Lehmann-Haupt).
      2. Usage Problem. A brief, somewhat interesting fact.

  •  Why the indie drop? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    dotalbon

     Republicans coming home, I can understand. Independents switching to the Republican, at this point in history, is a bit more of a head-scratcher. And a question we'll need to answer before we can make more progress.

    "Le ciel est bleu, l'enfer est rouge."

    by Buzzer on Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 04:23:57 PM PDT

    •  They weren't really independent (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      docangel, JML9999, dotalbon
      They were afraid to state that they were going for Palin/McCain.  

      Not surprising at all, really.  It is a form of political correctness.  One can only hope that they don't really feel motivated to go to the polls and it won't break that way on Tuesday.

      On another topic, McCain finally rolled out Reverend Wright tonight.  A sleezy ad.

      Bearing False Witness, indeed.

      John McCain's vision: Having your own steamgrate to sleep on between shifts on your two jobs.

      by captainlaser on Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 04:26:48 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  They weren't really independent (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      JML9999, dotalbon
      They were afraid to state that they were going for Palin/McCain.  

      Not surprising at all, really.  It is a form of political correctness.  One can only hope that they don't really feel motivated to go to the polls and it won't break that way on Tuesday.

      On another topic, McCain finally rolled out Reverend Wright tonight.  A sleezy ad.

      Bearing False Witness, indeed.

      John McCain's vision: Having your own steamgrate to sleep on between shifts on your two jobs.

      by captainlaser on Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 04:27:15 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Damn (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Pager, timbuck

    I really hope Trauner can pull this out.  But it's obvious we have much more to do.  We always knew this election cycle would be a beginning, not an end.  

    Electing a Republican is like hiring a carpenter who thinks hammers are evil.

    by dotalbon on Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 04:27:19 PM PDT

  •  i guess we're fighting over dick's seat here? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    JML9999

    probably cost a billion dollars if was halliburton product.

    "The most common form of terrorism in the U.S.A. is that carried on by bulldozers and chain saws." Edward Abbey

    by timbuck on Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 04:31:16 PM PDT

  •  Now we get down to the point where polls (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    wyoskies

    become useless.  Now all variation is within the range of the vagaries of the individual polling methods and sampling errors.  There are few undecideds left and the errors become the statistical noise.  How much the reality of the poll as actually representing the electorate is now the question that can't be answered until election night.

  •  asdf (0+ / 0-)

    Oof, that sucks. What's happening here?

    Um.....not to go out on a limb here, but..........it's fucking WYOMING??????

    Photobucket

    I don't have "issues". I have a full subscription!

    by GayIthacan on Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 04:34:00 PM PDT

  •  Shit! (0+ / 0-)

    Shit shit shit shit shit shit shit!!!!

    SHIT!!!

    That's all I have to say about that.

  •  San Diego cheers and jeers! (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    sardonyx

    Cheers to a good day and a half of sightseeing.  I got to visit Sea World yesterday, and this morning I walked the San Diego waterfront, seeing the old ships docked there.

    Jeers to having to go to continuing education.  I know I need it, but I was having fun here!  

    Cheers to meetups!  San Diego Dem and I had dinner together last night, and she was most excellent company!   Here's a pic:

    Cheers to a cupcake bar just blocks away.  Time to go have dessert.  Mmmmmmm.....cupcakes! Bwah-haw-haw-haw-haw.......

    Andy
    Alton IL (but in San Diego tonight!)

    The Alton Weekly Inquirer! News roundup with snark, every Friday morning right here on Daily Kos!

    by AAbshier on Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 05:01:02 PM PDT

  •  After 2004 in places like (0+ / 0-)

    Wyoming and Utah and Alabama and Oklahoma and Kansas... where I thought - hell, we should just run a 45 state strategy.  It was just so damn depressing.  But then you see numbers like this, where we've really made huge gains, even if we aren't winning ... and you just want to double down and play again.  Someday, Wyoming will be blue.  I'm still not very optimistic about Utah tho'.

  •  Damn Star-Tribune (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Cheyenne Mike

    The Casper Star-Tribune endorsed Lummis.  Totally hacked me off.  >:-(

  •  So that's where the Wyoming ads came from on ... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    sardonyx

    the Salt Lake channels.  If you're not paying attention, though, it's hard to tell whose ad it is.  YOu've got a generic male announcer voice mentioning Lummis' name, her voice saying something positive, then generic announcer saying how she went against the positive declaration.  If you're only listening with half an ear, it's easier to hear her talking about the good things than to hear the counter-points.

    "Failure after long perseverance is much grander than never to have a striving good enough to be called a failure." - George Eliot -

    by BlueInUtah on Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 05:50:11 PM PDT

  •  Up in the northeast part of the state, the only (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Cheyenne Mike

    ads I've seen are horrendously negative ads full of lies about Trauner.  They are hitting all the right points - they claim he wants all immigrants to be given citizenship status and full social security benefits from day 1; they claim he wants to raise taxes only on the middle class; they claim that he wants to take away the privacy of the vote because he supports the Employee Free Choice Act (such a joke anyway, since Wyoming is a Right to Work state).

    Anyway, the advertising has been very effective and it has been very constant.  So have the fancy, large, full color postcards that are being sent out every 2-3 days with the same lies.  

    It is very discouraging, but I don't think it will even be that close this time.  Sometimes I really hate living in Wyoming.

    "Unless someone like you cares a whole awful lot, nothing is going to get better, it's not." -The Lorax, by Dr. Suess

    by docangel on Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 06:21:16 PM PDT

  •  It's the Dem Control factor (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Cheyenne Mike

    The Repubs here are feeling certain that Barack/Biden are going to win, and therefore want to keep the state representation in the R column. The two most evil words around here are Nancy and Pelosi. They won't put a Dem in that would take her side on anything.

    That's the vibe I'm getting around here. I really feel Obama's momentum is hurting Gary's chances.

    Red State, Blue Voter!

    by Apollo18 on Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 07:43:23 PM PDT

  •  True, but... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Apollo18

    Would you rather have it the other way? I've worked my ass off for Trauner and want him to win. But we must win the White House. Our goose is cooked if that doesn't happen. It would be great to have Gary Trauner working in Congress with the other majority Dems. Well, it ain't over 'til it's over.

    •  Oh absolutely (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      csquared

      Obama must win! I was just supplying the answer to what I think is going on with Trauner. They both have my full support. We've still got the weekend, and Repubs will be tied up today in Laramie sucking up to Dick Cheney. Bleh. Only in Wyoming would that be a prized photo op.

      Red State, Blue Voter!

      by Apollo18 on Sat Nov 01, 2008 at 05:40:23 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  speaking (0+ / 0-)

    Speaking to a WY Republican state rep, they said that they planned on the base coming behind Lummis in the end. ( even if this republican state rep voted for Gary) It was super close because so many republicans voted against cubin last time.

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