Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 10/27-29. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (10/14-16 results)
Lummis (R) 49 (43)
Trauner (D) 45 (44)
Oof, that sucks. What's happening here?
First of all, the 21 percent of Republicans who were undecided two weeks ago are making up their minds. While Lummis was at 65-14 with Republicans last poll, she's now at 72-21. That means those undecided Republicans are splitting 50-50 between the two candidates. Pretty good for a Democrat, but not good enough since Trauner's 58-33 lead among independents is now 53-41 -- a 13-point net drop.
Our own fundraising efforts have allowed Trauner to purchase time in Salt Lake City to hit southwestern Wyoming, and the campaign is closing strong both on the air and on the ground game.
Factoid -- the two last polls of this race in 2006 had Trauner trailing by four points (Wyoming Tribune-Eagle) and seven points (Mason-Dixon). Trauner lost to then-incumbent Barbara Cubin by 1,000 votes. This year will once again go down to the wire.
In the presidential, the relatively close race we saw this summer (13 points) has evaporated. McCain leads 61-36. However, that is still 15 points ahead of where Kerry ran in 2004 (69-29). If those margins hold, it'll mark progress.
On the web:
Gary Trauner for Congress
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WYOMING POLL RESULTS – OCTOBER 2008
The Research 2000 Wyoming Poll was conducted from October 27 through October 29, 2008. A total of 500 likely voters who vote regularly in state elections were interviewed statewide by telephone.
Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges was utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the state. Quotas were assigned to reflect the voter registration of distribution by county.
The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 4.5% percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the “true” figure would fall within that range if the entire population were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as for gender or party affiliation.
SAMPLE FIGURES:
Men 245 (48%)
Women 255 (52%)
Democrats 116 (24%)
Republicans 242 (48%)
Independents/Other 142 (28%)
18-29 83 (18%)
30-44 153 (30%)
45-59 166 (33%)
60+ 98 (19%)
QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Gary Trauner? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):
VERY FAV FAV UNFAV VERY UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 14% 42% 25% 14% 5%
FAV UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 56% 39% 5%
MEN 54% 42% 4%
WOMEN 58% 36% 6%
DEMOCRATS 85% 13% 2%
REPUBLICANS 40% 57% 3%
INDEPENDENTS 57% 33% 10%
18-29 61% 35% 4%
30-44 55% 39% 6%
45-59 54% 41% 5%
60+ 55% 42% 3%
QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Cynthia Lummis? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):
VERY FAV FAV UNFAV VERY UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 17% 43% 22% 14% 4%
FAV UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 60% 36% 4%
MEN 63% 35% 2%
WOMEN 57% 37% 6%
DEMOCRATS 31% 66% 3%
REPUBLICANS 80% 17% 3%
INDEPENDENTS 57% 38% 5%
18-29 55% 41% 4%
30-44 60% 35% 5%
45-59 61% 35% 4%
60+ 63% 34% 3%
QUESTION: If the election for Congress were held today would you vote for Gary Trauner the Democrat Cynthia Lummis the Republican or David Herbert the Libertarian?
LUMMIS TRAUNER HERBERT UNDECIDED
ALL 49% 45% 2% 4%
MEN 51% 44% 3% 2%
WOMEN 47% 46% 1% 6%
DEMOCRATS 12% 84% 1% 3%
REPUBLICANS 72% 21% 1% 6%
INDEPENDENTS 41% 53% 5% 1%
18-29 46% 49% 1% 4%
30-44 49% 45% 2% 4%
45-59 51% 44% 2% 3%
60+ 50% 43% 1% 6%
QUESTION: If the election for U.S. Senate were held today would you vote for Nick Carter the Democrat or John Barasso the Republican?
BARASSO CARTER UNDECIDED
ALL 60% 35% 5%
MEN 63% 33% 4%
WOMEN 57% 37% 6%
DEMOCRATS 8% 89% 3%
REPUBLICANS 86% 7% 7%
OTHER 59% 39% 2%
18-29 57% 40% 3%
30-44 63% 32% 5%
45-59 61% 34% 5%
60+ 60% 35% 5%
QUESTION: If the election for U.S. Senate were held today would you vote for Chris Rothfuss the Democrat or Mike Enzi the Republican?
ENZI ROTHFUSS UNDECIDED
ALL 62% 35% 3%
MEN 64% 34% 2%
WOMEN 60% 36% 4%
DEMOCRATS 13% 84% 3%
REPUBLICANS 89% 8% 3%
OTHER 57% 40% 3%
18-29 57% 39% 4%
30-44 65% 32% 3%
45-59 63% 34% 3%
60+ 62% 35% 3%
QUESTION: If the election for President were held today would you vote for the Democratic ticket of Barack Obama and Joe Biden the Republican ticket of John McCain and Sarah Palin or another candidate?
MCCAIN OBAMA OTHER UNDECIDED
ALL 61% 36% 2% 1%
MEN 65% 32% 2% 1%
WOMEN 57% 40% 2% 1%
DEMOCRATS 10% 87% 1% 2%
REPUBLICANS 89% 8% 2% 1%
OTHER 56% 41% 2% 1%
18-29 57% 41% 1% 1%
30-44 63% 34% 2% 1%
45-59 62% 35% 2% 1%
60+ 61% 36% 2% 1%