If the results on Tuesday come in like this Barack Obama will win 63% of the popular vote and have a veritable electoral landslide with 515 electoral votes. If polls were projecting a map like this for Barack the GOP would be shaking in its boots. Of course, this isn't a projection of Tuesday night's results, and the chances Barack's map will look like this are pretty slim. That being said, this IS a map that should scare the GOP.
What the map actually represents is the current results (as of 1:25 PM on October 31st) of the National Student/Parent Mock Elections. The National Student/Parent Mock Elections is an organization that holds mock elections around the country for students of all age. This sample includes students from grade school all the way through high school.
Common wisdom says that young people don't have their own opinions, and just parrot their parents. This map puts that idea very much in question. For example, take a look at Oklahoma.
In the current results of the National Student/Parent Mock Elections Obama is leading 50.59 to 47.21. This is in stark contrast to the most recent SUSA poll out of Oklahoma. Based on interviews taking place between 10/28 and 10/29, in that poll John McCain holds a double digit blowout over Obama 63-34.
One may be tempted to believe that the disparity in these figures has to do with parents of school-age children being in a younger demographic. Perhaps these children voting for Obama are being influenced by their younger parents. In fact, the SUSA poll shows that John McCain's lead in Oklahoma is equally strong across every age group: 64-35 among 18 - 34 year olds, and 61 - 37 among the 35 - 49 age group.
A similar pattern can be seen in Kansas. In that state a recent SUSA poll shows McCain up 62-34 among voters under 50. Yet, in the student elections Obama squeaks past McCain at 47.51 to 46.37.
These results aren't really that surprising, though. A recent pew research report highlights the tendency of young voters to trend toward Democrats. Over the last 16 years voters 18 - 29 have gone from 46% Democratic in 1992 to 58% Democratic in 2008. Even more damning for the GOP is that in the same period of time young voters have trended away from them even more quickly, moving from 47% of young voters in 1992 to a pathetic 33% in 2008. That is a 12 point swing toward Democratic affiliation and a 14 point swing away from Republican affiliation.
While it may be true that younger voters don't have a good record on turnout, it is also important to remember that Today's 18-year-old voter is 2024's 34-year-old voter.
Using very simple linear regression models, if the current trend holds, by 2016 60% of voters ages 18-29 will lean Democratic compared to only 31.4% leaning Republican.
[Disclaimer: I'm not a statitician so please don't ask me for variances and margins of error.]
Keeping this in mind, the results of the National Student/Parent Mock Election make a lot of sense. The mock election could be seen as a survey of people who will reach voting age over the next decade, so it stands to reason that the results would favor Democrats much more heavily than Republicans in most parts of the country.
And that is something that should scare the s*** out of the GOP.
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On a side note, one of my favorite things about the National Student/Parent Mock Election results is Barack's commanding lead among schools with APO addresses. These figures represent children of our military men and women serving overseas.
APO - AE
Barack Obama / Joe Biden (D) Percent of votes: 56.77%
John McCain / Sarah Palin (R) Percent of votes: 38.85%
APO - AP
Barack Obama / Joe Biden (D) Percent of votes: 56.46%
John McCain / Sarah Palin (R) Percent of votes: 39.2%
Update [2008-11-1 0:21:25 by ThatPoshGirl]:
Yes, the National Student/Parent Mock Elections site really does have McCain up more than 30 points in Hawaii. I made the map myself this afternoon, so if there is an error it is with their numbers not the map.