If you are as obsessive to know our political future as I am, the map below from the Swing State Project will tell you when to start hitting the "refresh" button on your computer on Tuesday afternoon: 3 pm PST/6 pm EST, when Indiana polls close except for the Gary region and southwest Indiana. But if you are in state where the polls are still open, check this information on your cell phone only, while you are still out hustling votes. And don't forget: more votes for Obama where polls are still open, even after the tee-vee starts making predictions, also mean (1) building up his mandate to govern, and (2) probably election of more Senators and Representatives. As Kos says, "Crush 'em."
More analysis below.
I don't know how John McCain could win this election without Indiana, which is leaning to McCain. (I also don't believe John McCain can win this election with Indiana, but that has to do with other stories, not Indiana's.) So if Indiana goes blue with its 11 electoral votes, I think it's all over for McCain. But the northwest (Gary) and southwest corners don't close until an hour later. If non-Gary goes blue, Obama probably wins the rest of Indiana too, and therefore the entire election. I'm just sayin'.
4 PST/7 EST may be a crucial poll-closing, because it completes Indiana and also brings in the first of the states that McCain must win in order to tread water a big longer: Virginia and much of Florida. (The conservative Florida panhandle doesn't close until 5 PST/8 EST, so Florida may still be in play for another hour.) I believe that the only way that Barack Obama can lose this election is for McCain to win all four of these states: Ohio and Pennsylvania (polls close later), plus Virginia, and Florida.
Sidebar 1: Take a look at the state-by-state electoral vote predictions at http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/... Keep in mind that 270 electoral votes give us a new President. Nate Silver predicts 350 for Obama (allocating all toss-up states to one or the other candidate). How can McCain knock this down under 270? One way would be to subtract Ohio (20), Pennsylvania (21), Virginia (13), North Carolina (15), and Florida (27), a total of 96. This would drop Obama down to 254 (assuming that the rest of Nate's predictions are correct).
If Obama wins any of these five, he will have 267, 269, 274, 275, or 281 electoral votes (unless he later trips up farther west in a state that Nate Silver has in Obama's column). He will be within an arm's reach for any lagniappes that come his way (like any of the other 3 or Missouri, Indiana, or part of Nebraska, all closing soon thereafter).
If Obama wins two or more, you can wear a smile on your face while driving those last few voters to the polls in one of the 43 states that are still open.
Sidebar 2: You can do the same poll-closing, map-based calculations using Pollster's electoral vote map, http://www.pollster.com/... It keeps allocates 311 of the total to Obama. (Pollster leaves Florida and Indiana, among our earlier closers, in the toss-up category, so we are ignoring those for the present calculation.) In order for Pollster's total to dip down below 270 through early closings, Obama would have to lose 41 votes that Pollster has currently colored blue, from among this list: Virginia (13), Ohio (20), and Pennsylvania (21). If he lost all three, he would dip down to 257 temporarily, and then have to climb up out of that shallow hole, but he could do that with Indiana. So again, those three are important to watch, although they close at different times. But back to my Nate Silver chart-watching.
It's time for the next round of poll-closings. Virginia closes at 4 PST/7 EST, but it now seems pretty safe for Obama. If Virginia goes for McCain along with Indiana, it could take a while for Obama to get it over the line. At this hour we also get to start hearing from most of Florida. Can McCain win without Florida? I don't see how. Can Obama still win without Florida? Yes. As for Ohio and Pennsylvania, we have to wait another hour.
Here is a sleeper to watch in this round: Georgia. There is no reason to expect that deep Southern state to go for Obama -- no reason except for the terrific new registration and get-out-the-vote effort that the Obama campaign has been doing. If Georgia goes for Obama, wow, wow, wow!
But for those who aren't willing to start grinning as early as 4 pm/7 pm, there are, of course, at 4:30 PST/7:30 EST, Ohio and West Virginia. Ohio looks good for Obama (like Virginia), as does West Virginia for McCain. If either of those reverses, it is potentially a huge story, 'round about dinnertime in the East and rush hour in the West. If they don't, it's time to make some even-money bets with your Republican friends who haven't figured out what happened. You can donate your winnings to pay off Hillary's debt (thanks for your support, Hill), or to a public interest group that will be needed to hold Obama's feet to the fire in coming years.
Hold on to your cell phone (you're still driving voters, right?) for the avalanche at 5 PST/8 EST. Look at the interesting parts of the map: Pennsylvania (a must-win for McCain) and Missouri (an exciting pick-up possibility foretelling a possible huge landslide in the electoral college if Obama snags it). Oh, sure, there are the high-vote states of Michigan (O), Texas (Mc), and Illinois (O), along with a bunch of other states, but who expects any excitement among those? The game is Pennsylvania for McCain: lose it and Sarah Palin goes back to cheering on snowmobile races this winter. Win it, and Obama starts measuring the drapes in the White House.
If I got some of this wrong, please let me know. If it seems about right, then 3 pm to 5:15 pm PST (6 to 8:15 pm EST) is when the future of America will be known -- and maybe right in the middle of that time period. We just won't know how big his win will be, and your continuing GOTV effort will be needed to give us all the Senate and House (and Supreme Court) that we deserve.