SwingStateProject.com has put together a pretty neat map that shows poll closings in the various states come Tuesday night. The timing of the poll closings creates the storyline for Tuesday night's election.
Since the Mondale debacle in 1984, when Dan Rather announced Ronald Reagan had won the 2008 election at 8:01 p.m. EST, the corporate media no longer calls a state for a candidate until the polls close for each particular state. In 1984 and before, states were called for a candidate before the voting ended in those very same states.
What the poll closings in 2008 tell us is that an Obama victory may possibly come early on Tuesday evening. Of course, for most of us, it will be a long night regardless, as we sit and wait on the various national downticket races to be called. But it would be nice to watch an electoral landslide as well, dontcha think?
I've looked at the order of the poll closings and read the tea leaves in an effort to see what Tuesday night might glean. My thoughts are below the fold for any inclined to engage in a bit of election Tuesday soothsaying.
After examining the tale of the tarot cards, and the flight pattern of a gaggle of geese, I have concluded that there are 3 keys for Obama to win the Presidency:
(1) Either win Virginia; or,
(2) Win Colorado; and,
(3) Hold the Gore states, especially Pennsylvania.
Meet these goals, and it's happy days are here again. The remainder of this dairy attempts to break down Tuesday night's election in "real time" as the polls close nationally.
With this said, keep in mind the goal: 270 electoral votes to win, 269 electoral votes to tie (and the Democrats control the House of Representatives). For a quick primer, recall that the 2000 election "Gore states" (260 electoral votes today, 266 votes then) included Iowa and New Mexico, but not New Hampshire, while the 2004 "Kerry states" (252 electoral votes today, 251 votes then) included New Hampshire, but not Iowa or New Mexico. Here we go with the poll closings, all times Eastern Standard:
7:00 p.m. EST: Virginia (13), Indiana (11), Georgia (15), Vermont (3), South Carolina (8), Kentucky (8).
The First Key = Virginia
This first string of poll closings will be pivotal because if Obama wins the Gore states, plus any one of either Virginia, Indiana, or Georgia, Barack Obama will become President-Elect of the United States of America.
Virginia is more likely than Indiana or Georgia to be called at an early time. Plus, Obama has had a consistent lead in Virginia for several days now. Electoral-vote.com currently shows the Old Dominion and its 13 electoral votes leans toward Obama at 50%, to 46% McCain. Nate Silver at 538.com computes a 97% Obama win ratio. Virginia is looking good for Obama. Very good.
If these numbers in Virginia hold through Tuesday, it will not be surprising if Virginia is called for Obama before 7:30 p.m. EST -- certainly not much longer than that. If (and hopefully when) Virginia is called for Obama, and if Pennsylvania stays blue, the 2008 Presidential election, for all intents and purposes, is over. Obama will be the next President. Again, with Virginia, all Obama must do is hold the Gore states and he's at 273 electoral votes. If Obama can hold the Kerry states, plus Virginia, he would be sitting at 265 electoral votes, where a state like Nevada or Colorado would put him over the top. Without question, winning Virginia is the first key on Tuesday evening.
In 2000, the single biggest key state was Florida. In 2004, that state was Ohio. In 2008, the eyes of the nation turn to Virginia. This is Virginia's time. This is Virginia's election. Virginia has been entrusted with the hammer to crush the Republican racial "southern strategy" once and for all. So keep an eye open, and an ear attentive, to any call of Virginia for Obama, because if Pennsylvania stays blue, Virginia will clinch the 2008 election for Barack Obama then and there. And if, somehow, Virginia should fall short, then Colorado is given the opportunity to win the 2008 election for Obama a little later in the evening.
If Virginia lingers, Indiana (11 electoral votes) would also put Obama over the top. Indiana, however, is exceedingly close, and may well finally tip to McCain. If Obama does win Indiana, given the closeness of the race, Indiana will likely not be called until much later in the night -- too far out to be the state that "wins" for Obama. Lake County returns (up next to Chicago) always seem to come in very late, so Indiana would be part of an electoral landslide if it goes Obama. Still, most of the polls in Indiana actually close at 6:00 p.m. EST (with Lake County and the southwest corner closing at 7:00 p.m. EST) so maybe Indiana might get called before, or with, Virginia, who knows? The Gore states, plus Indiana, equals 271 electoral votes . . . and victory.
Georgia and its 15 electoral votes may also provide some interesting results, and not just in the Senatorial race. While the odds of Georgia going for Obama appear remote (Silver says 10%); nonetheless, if Georgia does go for Obama, Georgia, too, would be enough (with the Gore states) to put Obama over the top (275 electoral votes). But even if Obama loses Georgia, Georgia might still demonstrate how strongly Obama is running in the deep south. So, the longer Georgia goes uncalled, the more heartening it will be to wait on the North Carolina results, where polls close at 8:30 p.m. EST, and where Obama may hold a slight lead. Any Obama victory in Georgia will surely come much later in the evening, and Georgia's Senate race (and other downticket races), in the end, may ultimately provide the only fireworks on Tuesday for Democrats from the State of Georgia. Go Jim Martin.
7:30 p.m. EST: Ohio (20), West Virginia (5).
Obviously, Ohio would be huge for Obama. Given how close the race appears to be in Ohio, I cannot imagine Ohio (20 electoral votes) being called until 10:00 p.m. EST or even later. Maybe even a couple of days later, what with Republican shenanigans over voter eligibility challenges, and the distinct possibility of having to count tens of thousands of provisional ballots. Ohio in Obama's column means a 300+ electoral college victory. Ohio plus Virginia probably means 350+ because clearly the night will be going well. Again, my guess is that the race will be over via other states long before Ohio reaches the point of being called. Ohio, amazingly, is not crucial to an Obama win, if Obama holds Pennsylvania, although it would sure be nice to win Ohio to get those folks used to voting Democratic.
8:00 p.m. EST: Pennsylvania (21), New Hampshire (4), Florida (27), Missouri (11), Maine (4), Massachusetts (12), Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), Maryland (10), New Jersey (15), Illinois (21), Tennessee (11), Mississippi (6), Alabama (9), Oklahoma (7).
The Second Key = Pennsylvania
The election will begin to proceed at breakneck speed shortly after 8:00 p.m. EST, with a second wave occurring at 9:00 p.m. EST. Most of the Gore states show up between 8:00 p.m. EST and 9:00 p.m. EST -- Obama's base states. Obviously, Obama must hold the northeast, midwest, and Pacific west. While we need to consider McCain's "blue state" strategy, which involves Pennsylvania, and, curiously, New Hampshire, all indications are that there will be no surprises in holding the Gore/Kerry states.
First up, we ought to see very quickly if McCain's Pennsylvania gambit plays out. If Pennsylvania (21 electoral votes) lingers past 9:00 p.m. EST, especially if Virginia is still undecided, then we should all get a little nervous. Understand very clearly that McCain's entire election strategy boils down to taking away Pennsylvania. Consider this map in your mind: Obama wins all the Gore states, plus New Hampshire, throw in Colorado, and now let's give Obama Virginia as well. If Obama wins all these states, but if McCain takes away Pennsylvania, then McCain wins the Presidency! There is some danger here, if McCain wins Pennsylvania. Of course, McCain would have to hold all of the remaining Bush states to claim victory (273 electoral votes to Obama's 265 electoral votes). So the McCain Pennsylvania offensive does have a rational basis in fact, and we want Pennsylvania called for Obama as quickly as possible to quell any potential McCain uprising.
On the other hand, if and when Pennsylvania goes to Obama, as expected, then McCain's "blue state" strategy will be smashed. And an Obama victory in 2008 will be only a matter of time. For this reason, holding Pennsylvania is the second key for Tuesday night.
New Hampshire ought to come in shortly after 8:00 p.m. EST because the townships close their polls at 7:00 p.m. EST, with the cities staying open until 8:00 p.m. EST. So a lot of New Hampshire will have the results tabulated before 8:00 p.m. EST -- the corporate media just won't tell us those results until after 8:00 p.m. EST. Remember, New Hampshire also plays a role in McCain's "blue state" strategy as a hedge against Nevada going Obama. The McCain thinking is that if they win Pennsylvania, but lose Nevada's 5 electoral votes to Obama, then Obama would still reach 270 electoral votes, and victory, even if, to reiterate, McCain wins Pennsylvania. McCain therefore hopes New Hampshire will save his political life one more time if he wins Pennsylvania but loses Nevada (see the scenario in the Pennsylvania discussion, but add Nevada to Obama's side and New Hampshire to McCain's side).
In reality, unless McCain wins Pennsylvania, New Hampshire will not play a critical role in the 2008 election (unlike 2000, when New Hampshire turned out to be the difference between winning and losing for Al Gore). Why? Because McCain's strategy to win Pennsylvania is exceedingly questionable, perhaps even reckless, what with long-standing strong Obama polling in Pennsylvania, and its impeccable blue state tradition. Considering that New Hampshire is merely a sort of electoral "insurance policy" against Nevada, dependent upon a win in Pennsylvania, in the final analysis New Hampshire amounts to a secondary strategy. Given that McCain is behind in a multitude of states, McCain needs a complementary strategy to Pennsylvania, not a potentially superfluous secondary strategy. Since New Hampshire is a secondary strategy, it offers McCain nothing if McCain fails in Pennsylvania. Hence, McCain is likely wasting his time, money, and energy catering to New Hampshire in his 2008 endgame. Anyway, there is McCain's Pennsylvania / New Hampshire strategy. Thus is the box McCain, in his hubris, finds himself. A quixotic gamble played by McCain the gambler.
Most of Florida's polls close at 7:00 p.m. EST, but a handful of the panhandle counties close at 8:00 p.m. EST. Florida is a large and diverse state, and it will take some time to count all the votes. I don't think we should look for a call in Florida anytime before 10:30 p.m. EST, possibly much later, possibly after midnight. Remember 2000? An Obama win in Florida ensures victory, and an electoral landslide, what with its whopping 27 electoral votes, but that victory, if it happens at all, will happen later rather than sooner in the evening. It is truly a credit to the strength of Obama's run that neither Florida nor Ohio are critical to an Obama victory on Tuesday night if Pennsylvania stays blue. If they happen, they happen; otherwise, oh well -- there are other paths to victory (namely, Virginia and Colorado).
We sure hope to win Missouri and its 11 electoral votes, but that state is notorious for the returns from St. Louis and environs coming in very late. First, Missouri does not have early voting, so lines will be long on Tuesday all the way to poll closing. Second, St. Louis proper never seems to get enough voting machines, exacerbating timely voting, undoubtedly because of its strong historic Democratic voting patterns. If Obama wins it at all, Missouri will simply be a landslide state, and won't be called, probably, before 11:00 p.m. EST, and possibly not until the wee hours of Wednesday morning.
8:30 p.m. EST: North Carolina (15), Arkansas (6).
We have great hopes for North Carolina and its 15 electoral votes. Some polls close at 7:30 p.m. EST while others close at 8:30 p.m. EST. Apparently some polls have an option to stay open an hour later (for the cities, I assume). Again, lots of votes from the smaller counties will be tallied by 8:30 p.m. EST, so it is possible that North Carolina might be called before 9:00 p.m. EST, maybe around 9:30 p.m. EST. A victory in North Carolina would almost surely mean that Virginia has already been called for Obama, but equally importantly, a North Carolina win would be further evidence of the fraying of the Republican racial "southern strategy" that has been a Republican stalwart in elections since 1964. The demolition of the Republican "southern strategy" will be a great day for Democrats and for the nation because it will relegate the Republican Party to a regional status: parts of the south and prairie states.
9:00 p.m. EST: Colorado (9), New Mexico (5), New York (31), Michigan (17), Rhode Island (4), Minnesota (10), Wisconsin (10), North Dakota (3), Arizona (10), South Dakota (3), Louisiana (9), Texas (34), Nebraska (5), Wyoming (3), Kansas (6).
The Third Key = Colorado
Well, there it is: Colorado. The original Obama strategy, and now, happily, with the strong emergence of Virginia, Colorado forms Obama's fall-back, firewall state (instead of being the primary pathway to victory). Colorado is the third key to Obama success on Tuesday night. I say "third" only because of the timing of the poll closings nationally. That is, Obama must take a former red state in order to win the election -- the Gore states alone are not enough to win, obviously -- and Colorado will likely be called before Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, or any other Bush state, except, perhaps, for Virginia. Therefore, after Virginia, Colorado is the second most important state for Obama because it is the most likely to turn from red to blue early on, even if the election turns out to be close.
If the Gore states can be held (read: Pennsylvania), Colorado forms the path to victory even if none of the other Bush states, including Virginia, go to Obama. The Gore states (260 electoral votes) plus Colorado (9 electoral votes) equals 269 electoral votes -- a tie -- which means the Democratic dominated House of Representatives puts Obama in the White House. Add, say, New Hampshire to the Gore states, plus Colorado, and you have an outright Obama victory. Nate Silver has Colorado at 98% for an Obama win.
North Dakota is close. It would be nice to pickup North Dakota and its 3 electoral votes "just because." Given its population, North Dakota will likely be called before 10:00 p.m. EST, probably earlier. We'll see soon enough who North Dakotans settle on.
Incredibly, I have to mention Arizona. If the polls are to be believed, Obama is as close to winning Arizona's 10 electoral votes as he is to winning Montana or Georgia -- about a 4 point spread in each of these 3 states (although Georgia may be tightening a bit more). If Arizona goes Obama, then I expect Obama would surpass 400 electoral votes, and Democrats would likely reach the magic "filibuster-proof" 60 in the Senate. A close Obama loss, however, also means McCain is faltering in his home state, giving Janet Napolitano an opening to attack McCain and his Senate seat in 2010. So Arizona is worth watching.
10:00 p.m. EST: Iowa (7), Nevada (5), Montana (3), Utah (5).
If none of the Bush states are called for Obama before the poll closings at 10:00 p.m. EST, then Iowa becomes exceedingly important. Iowa went for Gore in 2000, but it did not go for Kerry in 2004. Obviously, Obama needs to collect Iowa, especially if the election is still in doubt at 10:00 p.m. EST. Picking up Iowa is strong confirmation that Obama will emulate the Gore states, and not the Kerry states, putting Obama on a trajectory much closer to victory. Also, by 10:00 p.m. EST, we ought to know the outcome of New Mexico, which closes at 9:00 p.m. EST, further reinforcing a Gore state emulation, not a Kerry state emulation.
Also of significant interest to Democrats is Nevada. If all that Obama can win are the Gore states, plus New Hampshire, plus Nevada, then there would be an electoral college tie (269 apiece), and the election would proceed to the House of Representatives (where, again, Democrats hold a large majority). In that sense, winning Nevada is "important," especially if McCain shows strong nationally. More likely, however, Nevada going Obama will be important in that it will form part of the breakup of the Republican western mountain states. Like breaking up the "southern strategy," breaking the Republican grip on the west is also important in finally consigning Republicans to "regional," not truly national, political status.
Ah, Montana. Montana would mean a big, beautiful splash of blue on the map, and further proof that the Republican hold on the mountain west has waned. Yea, let's hope Obama takes Montana (3 electoral votes), even if it's not very likely.
11:00 p.m. EST: California (55), Oregon (7), Washington (11), Idaho (4).
If the election has not been called by midnight EST, there is trouble in paradise, and bad tidings would portend. Obviously, Obama must carry the Pacific west, including Hawaii . . . and he will.
What's really beautiful about this election cycle is that Obama has so many distinct points of attack, along with 2 main thrusts: Virginia and Colorado. This analysis revolves around simply holding the Gore states, especially Pennsylvania, which is eminently do-able, and adding a key red state pickup, Virginia or Colorado, thereby clinching victory. But there remains a strong probability of electoral dominance (300 to 374 electoral votes), and possibly even an electoral landslide (375 electoral votes or more). So it's all good.
Most likely, by 11:00 p.m. EST, we all will have imbibed sufficient quantities of champagne, wine, or beer to make us especially giddy. If the cork is still in the bottle, then get ready to pop it. Because Obama is going to win this election.
My guess? The election is "over" at 8:30 p.m. EST after a Virginia call to Obama and confirmation of a hold in Pennsylvania. Thank you Keystoners, those from the Old Dominion, and all Democrats and Obama voters across the land.
Your thoughts?