Who do you believe, David Plouffe or Rick Davis?
Davis, McCain's campaign manager, went on Fox News Sunday and gave his view of the election. Speaking with Chris Wallace he said:
"I think we've seen a significant shift in where the polling data is in the last few days." Davis also said that some of the western states are moving to McCain, including Colorado and Nevada. "The most important state to watch is Pennsylvania...it's a state Republicans haven't won in a long time"... and "polls show the only thing separating us is the margin of error."
"There is no doubt that John McCain is increasing his margin in every state in the country." Davis added that "John McCain may be the greatest closing politician of all time."
Bill Clinton was the Comeback Kid, so I guess McCain is the great closer? Is McCain closing in on CO and NV and just a hairs-breadth away in PA?
McCain's chops as a great closer, one would speculate, are proven by the many close Senate races McCain's won in the past?
Davis said that between early voting and absentee balloting, there is no difference between this year and 2004; "There will be more people voting, but there won't be more people of any one organization."
This is no doubt based on Davis's close study of early polling in Georgia, Florida, Colorado, and New Mexico? Of course, pollsters are universally showing that Obama leads massively in early voting in most states, but in Davis's eyes all of these polls seem to be like Gallup:
"Structurally, the Gallup poll is way out of whack with the rest of the country"
He repeated this attack on the polls on ABC with George S:
"I think it has to do with the structural imbalance we have...the polls are weighted down against the Republicans.
Is that weighting a result of bias, or is this another case of reality having a liberal bias, since there are now significantly more Dems than Republicans?
Rick Davis's final thought for Fox: "We are going to win this election; we're going to win it outright."
Meanwhile, David Plouffe, Obama's campaign manager, also speaking on Fox, sees things a bit differently.
In fact, Plouffe systematically knocks down every one of Davis's points.
Asked about Mr Davis's comments about the race tightening significantly in key states, Mr Plouffe said, "that's not what we see at all."
"We think we have a decisive edge at the moment," he said.
Also, says Plouffe, the balance among early voters is not neutral--in fact, far from it.
"We are seeing newly registered supporters for us...turning out in huge numbers," he said. These groups "will vote at historic levels,” Mr Plouffe believes.
In the sixteen battleground states the campaign is focusing on, they anticipate key groups voting in larger numbers than in 2004. This includes young voters, African-Americans, and Hispanics.
27% of the early voting in North Carolina has been African-American, he said.
He added that in Florida a lot of the early voters have not been regular voters.
"We're proud of how many millions have registered to vote in this campaign," he said. "In Georgia the early vote is striking in terms of its composition [like North Carolina] and we think we're heading for a very close finish there."
And what about the 50 State vs 50+1 Strategies? How is the 50 State Strategy working for you, David?
Mr Plouffe said the campaign had never wanted to be in position of relying on one state on November 4. That was the basis for their wide efforts, which he said would not have been possible without Mr Obama's appeal. With that, he believes they have many roads to 270 electoral votes on Tuesday.
So, who is right? Is McCain on the way to a historic comeback, does Obama have a decisive advantage, or is it still too close to call. You be the judge in this handy-dandy poll.