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So much for all that campaigning, John.

Iowa, a state won by George W. Bush in 2004, has been moved by CNN to "Safe Obama." This is particuarly significant considering CNN has continually shown McCain in better shape overall than places like 538, RCP or Electoral-vote.com.

CNN has also moved Montana to "toss-up," setting the stage for a possible reverse Nader there courtesy of Ron Paul.

Quoth the CNN:

"John McCain has always had a somewhat cool relationship with Iowa voters," (CNN Senior Political Researcher Alan) Silverleib noted.

"He didn't seriously contest the Iowa caucuses in 2000 and 2008, and he's opposed ethanol subsidies -- a political kiss of death with Iowa voters. Combine those facts with the backdrop of a struggling economy, and it's not terribly surprising that Obama is pulling away at this point."

In other words, don't mess with the corn out there.

Speaking of corn, bring the popped variety to watch the Big Sky too:

"Montana's usually a reliably Republican state in presidential campaigns. It's been won by the Democrats only twice in the past half century. If you're a Republican and you're fighting for Montana in the last few days of the campaign, you're not in good shape."

Remember, all polls are strongly motivated by not looking like total idiots after the election (well, most of them; I have my doubts about Zogby). They wouldn't be showing pro-Obama trends like this on the whole unless they were really happening. Keep working, but relax. Obama really does have this.

Originally posted to W Lane Startin on Sun Nov 02, 2008 at 02:00 PM PST.

Poll

In Iowa, don't mess with

19%57 votes
8%24 votes
3%11 votes
9%27 votes
40%117 votes
6%20 votes
11%33 votes

| 289 votes | Vote | Results

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