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GA-01OK, folks, you wanted a poll, here's a poll:

The position of Jack Kingston is equally precarious. Kingston’s support is exactly 50 percent with almost one in four registered voters undecided, according to the survey, making a runoff in Georgia’s First Congressional District with challenger Bill Gillespie a possibility.

Valdosta Daily Times, on a telephone survey of 453 random phone numbers (MoE 4.6%) in Lowndes County on 16-26 October by the Center for Applied Research (CAR) at Valdosta State University (VSU), Professor James LaPlant.

I have the whole poll, and among respondents who said they'd already voted, Kingston was below 50%. This is ignominious for Kingston, who in 2006 got 59% against 41% for Democrat Jim Nelson in Lowndes County. Bill Gillespie can win GA-01 this year.

There's more about GA-01, also GA-Sen and GA-Pres.

The Valdosta Daily Times relegated a story on massive new voter registrations to the inside pages and put a story about Lowndes County supposedly always being Republican on the front page of the same issue.  The VDT later declined to endorse anyone, because they didn't expect so much early voting! If even the VDT says Kingston's position is precarious, Kingston is perched on a precipice indeed.

Back to early voters vs. likely voters:

Early Voting, Poll, Lowndes County, Georgia

Chris Prine (D) and Freddie Taylor (R) are running for sheriff, Ashley Paulk (D) and G. Norman Bennett (R) for county commission chair, Bill Gillespie (D) and Jack Kingston (R) for U.S. House GA-01, Jim Martin (D) and Saxby Chambliss (R) for U.S. Senate GA-Sen, and Barack Obama (D) and John McCain (R) for U.S. president GA-Pres. As you can see, the local races are not even close; the Democrat is way ahead in each of those. The national races show the Democrat trailing, but much closer in early voting.  In GA-01, Jack Kingston (R) fell below 50% in early voting, and Bill Gillespie (D) is catching up. The poll showed 28% early voters at a time when more than 20% had voted early. The last day of early voting was packed in Lowndes County. Final early voting was about 22,000 out of about 57,000 registered voters, or about 38%. So if the trend shown in this survey continued, the Democrats are even closer in the national races now.

The professor who organized the survey, Jim LaPlant, tells me:

I should also note that the survey found that Democrats outnumber
Republicans in our sample of Lowndes County registered voters.  Our
sample was 36% Democrat, 34% Republican, 26% Independent and 4% no
response.  In 2004, Republicans outnumbered Democrats and the numbers
were roughly equivalent in the 2006 survey.

And even better, what do voters care about:

Issues, Poll, Lowndes County, Georgia

It's the economy, stupid. Bill Clinton won Georgia when the economy was the biggest issue.

How are the voters leaning on each issue?

Issues and parties, poll, Lowndes County, Georgia

This figure shows which presidential candidate the voters favor on each issue. It doesn't show the effects on GA-01, but Bill Gillespie's top issue is the economy, and regarding terrorism and Iraq, he's a decorated Iraq veteran, and Kingston is not.

OK, what about the presidential race?

Presidential Race, Lowndes County, Georgia

As the survey summary says:

Given the sampling error of our survey as well as the 5% of registered voters still undecided at this late stage, the presidential race in Lowndes County is too close to call.  In the 2004 presidential election, George Bush received 55% of the vote in Lowndes County.  If McCain is able to win this county on November 4th, it is likely to be with a smaller percentage of the vote than Bush received in 2004.

Let's look at the demographics:

Demographics, presidential race, Lowndes County, Georgia

Democrats, black people, poor people, and women favor Obama. These demographics agree with what we found by examining county-by-county primary results. Guess who the Obama campaign is getting out to vote, in numbers larger than anyone can remember: Democrats, black people, poor people, and women and men. Also students, a demographic not shown in the figure, yet VSU has 13,000 students, of which a significant number plan to vote Tuesday Democratic. All these same people will likely favor Bill Gillespie for GA-01, especially since the Valdosta Obama office has handed out thousands of Gillespie flyers and mentions his name at every opportunity. Bill Gillespie should benefit from what the poll summary calls

...a presidential election that has the potential to generate the highest voter turnout since the 1960 presidential election.

What about everybody's favorite race, GA-Sen, with Jim Martin set to pitch out Saxby "Shameless" Chambliss?

GA-Sen: Jim Martin (D), Saxby Chambliss (R), Lowndes County, Georgia

Saxby is below 50%, and remember even lower in early voting, so if the state goes like Lowndes County, we're talking runoff at best for Saxby, and possible outright victory for Jim Martin.

Jim Martin had seen this poll earlier the same day when he said "Bill Gillespie's race is going to be close":

Listen to Uncle Jim. GOTV!

Originally posted to jayskew on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 01:17 AM PST.

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Comment Preferences

  •  tip jar (9+ / 0-)

    GOTV!

    "Reserve your right to think, for even to think wrongly is better than not to think at all." --Hypatia of Alexandria, c.400

    by jayskew on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 01:18:50 AM PST

  •  OH My (6+ / 0-)

    Flag Pin Jack could lose? Sweet!

    "They want to win, at any price. So, you have a choice: be a fighting liberal or sit quietly. I know what I am, what are you?" -Steve Gilliard.

    by demkat620 on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 02:05:44 AM PST

  •  Left behind by the DCCC (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jayskew

    So here's the poll showing the Repub incumbent at the "magic" 50% re-elect figure showing vulnerability.

    But we've had no attack ads in GA-01 from the DCCC. No national group has been beating the drums to get money to put ads for the Democrat on cable. The reichtwinger Jack Kingston got a free pass, again.

    When the votes are counted, Wednesday morning we will look at the long list of winners. Then painfully we will have to look at the ones that got away, the Democrats who lost by mere thousands of votes in "surprisingly close" races. Then Bill Gillespie in GA-01 will likely be high on that list of disappointment and squandered opportunity.

    We concede too many districts when the national party supports only the campaigns that already have enough funding. We really need to find a way to spread the wealth, say, by putting $100,000 fairly early on into each of 10 very untraditional races in unexpected places, instead of always throwing a million each into the hot races. We can expand the map and win some that way, carry the attack to their heartland, and build our national party in the forgotten districts. Applying the lessons of the 50-state strategy to our House races is the step not yet taken.

  •  Mistake in the VDT article. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jayskew

    The position of Jack Kingston is equally precarious. Kingston’s support is exactly 50 percent with almost one in four registered voters undecided, according to the survey, making a runoff in Georgia’s First Congressional District with challenger Bill Gillespie a possibility.

    Regarding this quote in the Valdosta Daily Times.

    There has been a misquote or misunderstanding.  There really cannot be a runoff logically. There are only two candidates in the race. For a runoff to occur there generally needs to be a third candidate.

    I think. Therefore I O'Bama.

    by MarkMarvin on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 07:06:32 AM PST

    •  Jack is in trouble because he has not hit 50% (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jayskew

      favorable rating. There is a crazy huge number of undecideds.

      I think. Therefore I O'Bama.

      by MarkMarvin on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 07:07:43 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Logic and Ga. election law? (0+ / 0-)

      Those two things are not necessarily connected.

      This article seems to indicate that it might be possible:

      http://www.swingstateproject.com/...

      However, the Eaton-Broun runoff was after a general election that had a third candidate.

      I suppose if enough people wrote in somebody else for GA-01 to keep either candidate from winning, but that seems pretty unlikely.

      I've sent a request to somebody who should know.

      In any case, it's amusing that GA-Sen might indeed have a runoff, because of a law that Republicans in the Ga. legislature insisted on.

      "Reserve your right to think, for even to think wrongly is better than not to think at all." --Hypatia of Alexandria, c.400

      by jayskew on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 09:33:33 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  James LaPlant says no (0+ / 0-)

      More specifically:

      While a runoff is a distinct possibility in the US Senate
      race, a runoff is not really a possibility in the first congressional
      district race since we do not have a third party candidate as we do
      in the Chambliss-Martin race.  The bottom line is that one of the
      candidates (Kingston or Gillespie) will get 50% + 1 in the first
      congressional district race on Tuesday, but Kingston shows some
      incumbency weakness with only 50% of the vote at this stage and one
      out of four voters undecided in our October survey.  The VDT article
      this morning referenced a possible runoff in the first congressional
      district race which is not really what our report finds.  Just wanted
      to clarify that item.

      And the newsworthy part remains: "Kingston shows some incumbency weakness".  Quite a change from the invincible Kingston of yesteryear, who hasn't won with less than 60% district-wide in a decade.  

      "Reserve your right to think, for even to think wrongly is better than not to think at all." --Hypatia of Alexandria, c.400

      by jayskew on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 11:00:18 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Thanks for talking about the poll (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jayskew

    it is the first and only one we have had for the first district and it is encouraging!  

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