At this point in this election, with polls closing 48 hours from now here in Virginia, I thought I'd post again to generate some discussion and get myself (and perhaps others) away from obsessively reading 538 or Pollster to see the latest "scores" and projections. Here's "a" Top 10 list, although I'm sure there are plenty of other reasons I've missed. Comments welcome and thanks for reading!
Top 10 Reasons Why Obama Will Win
- "Halo" Effects. These are events which give candidates an aura of inevitablity that helps undecideds and doubters move in their direction. The Editor and Publisher ratio of papers endorsing Obama vs. those endorsing McCain (2:1 ratio so far, with 40+ papers who endorsed Shrubya in 2004 endorsing Obama this year). Even more significant halo effects come from Republican endorsements/defections, with Colin Powell's being the most significant. It was one of the most high-profile Bush Administration figures eloquently explaining why McCain is a bad choice for President, and Obama is the best candidate to lead us forward from the morass in which we find ourselves.
- Hillary Clinton. Even Obama alluded to this at the Alfred Smith dinner ("she's responsible for all this grey hair!"). Surviving the bruising primaries against Hillary Clinton helped Obama's Team become the fine-tuned juggernaut it became in the Presidential campaign.
- Presidential debate performances. McCain's best opportunity was the first debate, on foreign policy, and Obama won a solid victory (punditry notwithstanding). Obama's best peformance occurred on McCain's "best" format, the town hall in debate #2. The last debate served to solidify Obama as a convincing candidate for undecideds. (VP debate was also big: see #2)
- McCain campaign incompetence. The inability to control Sarah Palin once unleashed, internal sniping, seemingly random attempts to develop a message that would stick to disguise McCain's utter lack of credible ideas. The "Joe-the-no-Show" moment in Ohio, after bussing in a few thousand school kids to avoid an embarrassing lack of interest, was a great example of how poorly the McCain campaign has been run.
- The "Netroots". If we learned anything from the response to Michelle Bachmann's McCarthyist attacks, it's that the Netroots can be used to quickly mobilize people to respond with $ and information to candidates who thought they were safe to viciously attack others without consequences.
- George Bush. President Epic Fail. Folks are glum at 1600 Penn Ave these days, as Shrubya reaches fav/unfav ratios of Hoover-like proportions. Shrubya's days are coming to a close and he's left our Nation in near ruins. To paraphrase a favorite bumper sticker: "Broke at Home, Hated Abroad." Ouch.
- The Obama Campaign. From the primaries to the end, the Obama campaign's mastery of a presidential campaign, particularly in the internet age has, to paraphrase what many others have written, "re-written the rule book" on Presidential campaign strategy and tactics.
- The Economy...er...the Recession. In 2004 it was national security. In this election, "it's the economy, stupid...again."
- Sarah Palin. Tempting as it was to list Palin more than once, or as #1, for me it suffices to state that McCain's selection of Palin will likely go down in history as one of the most disastrous campaign decisions ever. Couric interviews. VP debate performance. Understanding the role of VP - 4x epic fail, including the middle-schooler's question! Two investigations (and counting) into her tax-dodging, vindictive nepotism and cronyism as Governor. $150,000 in clothing for the "hockey mom." Joe Six-Pack. "Sarkozy's" phone call. Too many examples to list. Someone needs to create a Palin montage of gaffes and post it to YouTube (I have no skills in this area, just a suggestion).
- Barack Obama. Calm, cool, brilliant, intellectually curious (he can listen without being led and get a wide range of opinions to make good decisions!), a family man, well educated, visionary, and yes - experienced in getting things done (as eloquently explained by Bill Clinton in Florida last week). Thinking Republicans know this to be true, which is why high-profile "defections" have been a big feature of this campaign. The vast majority of Democrats also agree, as well as a big majority of independents. He is the best candidate in these incredibly challenging circumstances facing our Nation. A transformational candidate for transformational times. I am so glad he's fighting for us.
It's not over. None of the margins Obama enjoys will matter if we don't get to the polls (for those of you who haven't voted yet) GOTV!!!