This is the ninth (and final pre-election) installment of my weekly series on the 2008 Presidential campaign. In today’s column, I’ll provide a brief summary of the week’s events, but I hope to focus more on predictions for the election results on Tuesday.
I. Matt Drudge, RCP, Fox News all Beg the Polls to Move and they do.........towards Obama.
The final full week of the 2008 Presidential campaign commenced with the usual media drama, backed by some nominal movement in tracking polls that gave the impression that polls were tightening. However, those pesky state polls just wouldn’t cooperate.
State Polls taken through the week in Iowa, New Mexico, Virginia, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Colorado, Florida, North Carolina and Nevada showed little change and slight improvement for Obama. Blue state polls showed large double digit leads for Obama even in traditional battlegrounds like Oregon, Minnesota, Michigan, Wisconsin and New Hampshire.
The national polls (non-tracking) also showed strengthening for Obama, as Pew and CBS put the margin in double digits among RVs, while others, like Harris (where the hell have they been all election cycle), Ipsos-McClatchy and Marist had the lead at 6-7 points.
Also worth noting is the ABC/WAPO tracking poll, which has the current margin at 9 points 53-44 (numbers still to report today) but has very few undecided at 3%. Gallup, CBS and ABC/Wapo (as well as Nate Silver) all indicate that undecided will probably split about evenly with some voting third party and others just not voting. I had predicted last week that the pollster.com average would dip from about 8.7 points (Sunday 10/27) to around 6 points. The current pollster.com average is a little over 6 points. Obama has consistently been between 50-53% while McCain’s numbers have been more volatile, ranging from 41%-46%.
II. McPalin stlill Flailin’
On the campaign trail, McCain stepped up the pace somewhat, and continued to demonstrate a commitment to Pennsylvania, as he spent most of the week between PA and Ohio, only venturing to Virginia and Florida. Sarah Palin has also seemingly taken up residence in Ohio and PA, though she has also been to North Carolina, Virginia and Florida as well.
Both candidates are speaking to smaller audiences composed primarily of angry conservatives who continue to shout out their favorite incendiary slogans – socialism becoming the common McCain theme. The two candidates have continued to hammer away at Obama on the tax issue, though clumsily so with phrases like ‘redistributionist in chief’. Joe the Plumber is a regular feature of McCain’s speeches, though the self-aggrandizing non-registered plumber stood him up at a rally while hawking a book and record deal.
McCain’s choice of venues and towns is also curious as there are few in major population centers (except for one poorly attended rally in Columbus). McCain’s presence in PA has caused some consternation among Democrats who see a few polls tightening in the state (though statistically there really hasn’t been any movement when one accounts for the fact that Obama’s numbers remain constant and McCain is picking up a few undecided, who were probably conservative leaning anyway).
Nonetheless, the Obama campaign has no plans to visit the state again after having done so last Monday and Tuesday. In the first part of the week, the McCain campaign seemed oddly distracted by dissension between the Palin and McCain camps and the phrase ‘going rogue’ made it into the political vernacular. The reports about such dissension and Palin’s post 2008 plans (captured brilliantly by Tina Fey on SNL) stepped on McCain’s intended message to raise doubts about Obama. In the second part of the week, the RNC/McCain went ‘all-in’ on an ad strategy, sacrificing some ground game efforts that Bush/Rove had once made a priority. The ad campaing included attacks on Obama’s character, bringing up Rezco, Reverend Wright, and other associations intended to prevent the relatively few undecided voters (if you believe the experts) from moving to Obama.
The GOP has made a calculated effort to match Obama on the airwaves for the first time. Given the trends in national polling, it appears to be a little too late, and ads at this stage in a long national campaign tend to have diminishing marginal utility. The timing of the ad blitz was also jarringly odd, as it came on the heels of a widely watched and very well received positive 30 minute Obama infomercial in which McCain’s name was not mentioned even once. However, given the nastiness of the McCain ground game (robocalls, mailers and even DVDs tying Obama to terrorists), the GOP is simply looking to reach those who still harbor doubts (however subtle) about Obama. Whether it will work or not remains to be seen, but polls show people reacting negatively against such campaigning.
McCain will spend about half of Sunday in Pennsylvania and then head out of the state for good to Florida, Indiana, New Mexico, Nevada and Arizona (and apparently Tennessee (to reach VA and back to PA). I’m sure Democrats will be relieved to just get the vote out on Tuesday in PA.
III. Barack Obama – Sprinting to the Finish Line.
Barack Obama had an intense week in which he attempted to stay on message, prevent overconfidence, energize people to vote, and also reach the undecided with a reassuring message. It is fair to say that based on early voting trends and public polling, he has been successful.
Unlike McCain, Obama spread out to several states, making trips to Ohio (twice), Pennsylvania (yes, Kossacks, he did spend 2 days there!), Virginia, Iowa, North Carolina, Florida, Indiana, Missouri, Nevada and Colorado. The rallies in each location were very large, ranging from 15,000 to 60,000 (Columbus, OH [McCain drew 6,000 there just two days ago]) with the median being around 30,000. He also traveled to exurban areas and republican areas like Sarasota, FL, Springfield, MO, Henderson, NV, Chester, PA. The highlight of the week for Obama was a manic Wednesday, in which he held rallies in Raleigh, NC, Sunrise, FL and a huge rally with Bill Clinton in Orlando, FL following the infomercial. Though Obama was visibly tired and somewhat off-script in Orlando, Clinton made the rally electric and the media coverage for the event drowned out McCain.
The Infomercial
There was much curiosity and anticipation for the infomercial, and it surprised everyone with its compelling and disarming narrative. While many expected a rather pedestrian political plug, Obama wove in stories of ordinary folks struggling. It struck a chord with everyone who watched because the people seemed very unassuming and real. After each story, the camera cut away to Obama standing in an oval office like setting detailing his policy prescriptions. The infomercial ended with a live rally in Sunrise, FL in which Obama exorted people to hope and vote. By all accounts, the infomercial was a tour de force. It was focused on the future, did not mention McCain once, used Obama sparingly and efficiently, and talked about the future. It was a statement of validation for wavering voters, and a whole lot of people watched it – 33 million or so.
The End of the Campaign
Following the infomercial, polls started to show a bounce for Obama, as he continued to press on in Sarasota, FL, Iowa, Indiana, Nevada and Colorado. He will spend all day Sunday, Nov. 2 in Ohio (Cincinnati, Columbus and Cleveland), and finish the whirlwind campaign in Florida, North Carolina and a final rally in symbolic Manassas, VA.
Obama’s speeches focused on his tax plan, dismissing attacks of socialism, national unity (a heavy dose of real v. fake America and ‘not red, not blue, but usa’) and general exhortations for hope and change. Obama also gave solid interview performances to Charlie Gibson, Brian Williams and Wolf Blitzer, in which he appeared engaged, collected, cerebral and quick witted.
As far as campaign controversies, Joe Biden stayed on message and didn’t screw anything up. He seemed to regain some mojo on the stump, poking fun at the ‘maverick’ theme, hitting McCain for his ties to Bush. However, it is hard to deny that Joe Biden hasn’t been the force on the campaign trail that he had been in September and through the first 3 weeks of October. His ill-phrased and ill-timed comment on challenges facing the new President has made it difficult for him to appear on interviews because any discussion of it distracts from the economy (as the comment was foreign policy related).
The GOP/McCain also launched new attacks attempting to tie Obama to a Palestinian-American professor, Reverend Wright, his aunt who was found to be in the country illegally (a curious leak by Homeland Security 3 days before an election). It turns out that McCain gave Rashid Khalidi’s group 500k (so some Palestinians might actually be ok to hang out with), Reverend Wright is yesterday’s news, and no one cares about Obama’s aunt whom he doesn’t know very well and isn’t that close to.
All in all, Obama appeared to accomplish what he set out to do.
Early Voting
Obama’s biggest success came in the area of early voting. His primary objective was to stay on message and keep the excitement up to get people out to vote. The numbers in the early voting states are quite staggering according to available data. In Florida, North Carolina, Georgia, Colorado and Nevada, polls indicate that Obama has built a huge lead, as Democrats and Obama-leaning independents have rushed to the polls.
In each of these states around 30% or more of registered voters have voted, representing nearly half of those who will vote in this election in each of these states (assuming turnout of around 60%). In Miami-Dade county, a poll conducted there of early voters shows Obama leading 58-39 even with McCain getting the usual GOP advantage among Cubans. Obama is overwhelming Dade county with the votes of non-Cuban latinos, whites and African Americans. Dems have roughly a 46-38 advantage among those showing up to the polls with Indies (an Obama favored group bringing 16% of early voters).
In Ohio, turnout in Franklin and Cuyahoga counties is double over 2004. In Nevada, Dems have stormed the polls and make up over 50% of all early voters. In Colorado, the last PPP poll shows Obama with a 10 point lead and an even wider margin among early voters, suggesting that indies are voting Dem and Republicans may be crossing over at a higher rate than previously believed. In North Carolina, Obama is putting maximum pressure on McCain as nearly half of all African American voters have already voted and over 2 million votes have been cast over all. The early voting will allow Dems to get more voters to the polls more efficiently on election day. They will be able to optimize their vote for the first time in a very long time,
Analysis and Predictions
Obama won the week. No matter what poll you look at, he appears to be around 51%-53%. The infomercial was a perfectly timed media event that reassured many of Obama’s focus and readiness to lead. There was little energy for McCain on the stump. The only signs of life have been on the airwaves. Obama’s positions in the states have stabilized and hardened. The volatility comes from McCain’s number, which varies depending on the sample and on the theory of the electorate.
So with only about 28 hours or so left of campaigning before the first votes are cast, it is time for predictions.
National Popular Vote: Obama 53.8% McCain 43.7%, Nader/Barr 2.2%, Other 0.3%
The pollster.com average has this race at about 6 points or so: 50-44. Given the very real evidence that Democrats are turning out to vote, I do not believe Republican turnout will exceed Democratic turnout in numbers or percentage. There is also evidence that new and unlikely voters are turning out and I see very little indication of a McCain ground game or a Bush 2004 like turnout among Republicans. Independents also seem to be consistently supporting Obama no matter the state or the region of the country.
Therefore, I think the polls, while generally correct on the topline result are missing these new voters, and are overstating 2004 voters who remain undecided. The ABC/WAPO poll has only 3% undecided and CBS only 5% undecided. At best, the undecided will split 55-45 in favor of McCain, with nearly as many voters not voting or voting third party as choosing one of the two major party candidates. That’s why I think Obama will gain in the final vote count over the pollster.com result when numbers are extrapolated to 100% and the undecided are accounted for.
In addition, taking a look at this race from a big picture level, Obama is poised to win every single Kerry state, including traditional battlegrounds like OR, NH, MN, WI, MI, PA by large margins that exceed a typical battleground result. Many blue state results will be in double digits with Obama probably exceeding 60% in places like California, Illinois and New York. Furthermore, Obama is outperforming Kerry in a majority of red states, and even reliable GOP states like MS, SC, LA, TX the margins will be considerably less than the 2004 Bush-Kerry result.
In the Tier I battlegrounds, Obama has large double digit leads in IA (contrary to what the McCain camp thinks) and NM. Obama has also led in the vast majority of polls taken in Virginia, Colorado, North Carolina, Nevada, Florida, and Ohio, and has hit the 50% mark several times. Outside of those crappy Zogby Internet polls, McCain has not hit 50% in any of the above battleground states since October 1 (there may have been a Ras/Fox poll showing McCain at 50% in NC, but they have since switched to favor Obama in the top line result).
There are also the second tier battlegrounds of Missouri, Indiana, Montana, North Dakota and Georgia. Polls in these states are much tighter and more competitive than the Tier I battlegrounds. However, Obama has steadily improved in each of these states and has a legitimate chance to win at least 1 of those states (and possibly 2).
All of this suggests a popular vote margin in favor of Obama that is closer to 10 points than to 6 points. As I write this, I notice that Sunday’s ABC/Wapo tracking poll has Obama up 54-43, which is pretty close to what I predict above (of course, ABC/Wapo has 1 more day of results (and possibly 2, though what’s the point of Monday’s result anyway?).
Electoral Vote: Obama 378 McCain 160.
With a popular vote margin around 9-10 points, Obama will win all of the Tier I battleground states and will win Missouri, Indiana and North Dakota among the Tier II states. I am very tempted to add Georgia and Montana to the list, but though trend lines are moving his way, the public polling to date doesn’t quite justify the move to blue (though in GA, the GOP is going to be hard pressed to catch Obama/Martin’s early vote numbers). So here is a breakdown of each of the key states.
1. Pennsylvania – Obama 54.4 McCain 43.6, Others 2%.
This is the only blue state McCain where McCain is making a big effort, and his and Palin’s constant presence has caused a lot of Kossacks some consternation in the past few days. However, it is not going to make any difference. McCain has never led in any poll taken in this state. He isn’t going to start now.
Obama will likely clear a 500,000 vote margin in Philly, win independents decisively, win the Scranton/Wilkes Barre and Pittsburgh areas by double digits and outperform Kerry in Central and Northwestern PA. He will also very likely win more GOP crossover votes than McCain does cross-over Democrats Obama has a ground game. McCain does not.
Central/North and Western PA are not as racist as the GOP wishes it to be. I am South Asian and grew up 12 miles from the Northern PA border, had PA kids come to my school, had PA residents come to my town to receive medical attention from my dad, and these are decent people. I have been through all parts of the state in a less progressive time and never had a problem. They are pragmatic people who give you a fair shake. They love guns and are conservative on abortion, but in this climate they will vote in higher numbers for Obama than they did for Kerry.
Also lost in the discussion is the massive registration advantage Dems have accumulated over the GOP. If we get these voters out (and Dems have done so in each of the last 4 elections), PA will begin its transition from a battleground lean blue state to a darker shade of blue, like New Jersey. That transition begins on Tuesday.
2. Ohio – Obama 53.1 McCain 45.3 Others 1.6%
38 polls have been take in the state of Ohio since October 1. Obama has led in 30 and has hit 50% in 14 of them. McCain has led in 2 Zogby Internet polls, 2 Mason-Dixon polls, 1 Strategic Vision poll, 2 Fox/Ras polls (which have since flipped to Obama) and 1 University of Cincinatti poll. He has not hit 50% in any poll other than Zogby Internet. That should tell you all you need to know.
In early voting, Obama leads by nearly a 2:1 margin. Turnout in Cuyahoga and Franklin counties is double what it was last year (in terms of early voting). Obama will be able to get every voter he needs to the polls and will get the votes counted. Qunnipiac has been a leading indicator poll in this state, and their last poll (taken a week ago but still instructive in my view) showed Obama getting a net +3 in the Dem-GOP crossover vote, winning independents by 12 points, and doesn’t trail in a single region of the state while dominating Central and Northeastern Ohio. Ohio’s 2008 electorate will resemble the 2006 electorate, so I think Obama will slightly overperform his pollster.com average. The fact that McCain isn’t going to be in Ohio in the last 2 days of the campaign is an indication that there is little he can do to change the result.
3. Virginia – Obama 52.3% McCain 46.2% Others: 1.5%
When conservative Mason-Dixon gives you a 3 point lead in a conservative leaning state, you know you’re doing well. Survey USA showed the race tightening from 9 to 4 points over the last week (though much of it is MOE float).
However, the internals show that Obama leads in 3 of the 4 regions in the state, has a dominant lead in NOVA, and has a net plus in the party cross-over vote. Those internals point to a pretty convincing Obama victory. SUSA still hasn’t figured out how to poll black voters, as they still give McCain 10% of the black vote. McCain won’t get 10 black votes on election day. McCain has not led in a single poll in the state since a Mason-Dixon poll at the end of September. Obama has hit the 50% mark 19 times. There is some concern that undecided white voters might shift towards McCain, which could tighten the result to 4 points, but it is just as likely that they won’t vote or vote third party. Obama has his strongest organization in VA. He will win it.
4. Florida - Obama 51.2% McCain 47.3% Others 1.5%
The race in Florida has been tighter in public polling, but doesn’t look as tight on the ground based on early voting stats or in polling trends or internals over the last 2 weeks. Since October 22nd, Obama has led in 13 out of 15 polls and has not trailed in any. Even Mason-Dixon, which had previously given McCain a 1 point lead, flipped today to give Obama a 2 point lead.
The internals indicate that Obama has a solid lead among indies and is winning a net gain in the crossover vote. Obama has been dominant in early voting and has been extremely competitive in Tampa, Sarasota and the I-4 corridor. New voters are going to make a big impact as well as the overall registration advantage. The result could be wider than 4 points if the GOP cannot match the Dems’ intensity, but Florida is a 47-47 state, and I expect the GOP to get its vote out to make it a little tighter, but Obama will have a clear victory.
5. Iowa – Obama 58% McCain 40% Others 2%
Ann Selzer says the margin is 17 points. Ann Selzer won’t be wrong on election day. I find it amusing that McCain’s camp still claims that they are going to win Iowa, even though there is no poll that points that way and McCain isn’t making it back there on the final day.
6. New Mexico – Obama 55.4% McCain 43.1 Others 0.5%
This is another state where the public polling has simply been unkind to McCain. Even Rasmussen has this at 10 points. McCain has never led in the state. I have no idea why he is stopping there on the last day of the campaign.
7. Nevada – Obama 53.3% McCain 45.2% Others 1.5%
Nevada is a state where the polling trends for Obama have steadily headed upwards since October 1st. McCain hasn’t reached 47% since October 2nd (Rasmussen). Obama has hit 50% 9 times and has led in every poll (except one Zogby Internet poll) taken in October. Democrats have dominated the early voting and have a terrific organization in the state to maximize the vote in Clark and Washoe counties. Obama also has support in the rural counties and will outperform Kerry in rural Nevada.
8. Colorado – Obama 54.0% McCain 45.6% Others 0.4%
Obama appears to be dominating the early voting and McCain skipped Colorado on his itinerary for the final days. Obama has not trailed in a single poll in the state since September 15th (the start of the financial crisis) except for one ARG poll in September 25th. McCain has never been above 47% in the state. Obama is dominating the independent vote, the largest group of voters in the state and of course carrying Democrats by a wide margin. He also appears to be winning the crossover vote. He has hit 50% 17 times since October 1st. This margin could be wider with new voters and support for Barr/Nader as the state has a libertarian streak.
9. North Carolina – Obama 49.8% McCain 47.5% Others 2.7%
This is going to be a very tight race. The word on the ground indicates that Obama is dominating the early vote and has gotten half of all registered black voters to cast a ballot before election day. The polling has been very narrow in the state and this is one of the few states where McCain wins the crossover vote (an indication of the enduring racist legacy of Jesse Helms).
However, Obama makes up for it with a clear advantage among independents, large party registration advantage, and a superior ground game. There have been around 33 polls taken in the state since October 1st. Obama has led 23 times. McCain, however, has polled better in the state and has hit 48% a fair number of times. That said, in the last week, it seems like the state has shifted slightly to Obama, as he has led in 6 out of the last 7 polls and even saw a 3 point swing in his favor in the Rasmussen poll. This is one state where Barr will make a slight impact on the end result.
10. Indiana – Obama 49.3% McCain 48.8% Others 2.9%
This might be the most even contest in the country according to recent public polling. The difference here is that I trust Ann Selzer and she believes that black voters, who are underrepresented in these polls, hold the key to victory for Obama. Given Obama’s organizational advantages and the lack of enthusiasm for McCain that Obama may win this one by a hair.
11. Missouri – Obama 49.2%, McCain 47.8%, Others 3%
Missouri is another state where polls are tight and conflict quite a bit. However, Obama has been to the state twice in the last 5 days and clearly sees a pickup opportunity. Rather than go to KC and STL, he has gone to Columbia and Springfield (the latter deep in the heart of Republican southwest Missouri). That tells me that Obama has reached a critical mass of support in STL and KC and is looking to expand his reach to GOP areas. Obama will benefit from Illinois sharing a long border with MO. That means a lot of GOTV volunteers and positive press coverage. I have real doubts as to whether McCain is going to reach Bush’s 2004 numbers or margins as he is not as tight with evangelical voters and Missouri has a history of being receptive to a populist economic message in years when the economy is the primary issue.
12. North Dakota – Obama 50% McCain 48%, Others 2%
I know Obama is going to win one of the smaller Western Mountain/Plains states. This one seems as good as any given that Obama is actually ahead in the pollster.com average. There are a lot of younger voters in ND, and Obama’s Midwestern temperament is perfectly suited to the electorate that is looking for change that they can feel comfortable with.
There are other states of course, but these are the ones I selected. I look forward to voting on Tuesday (in CA) and I look forward to a brand new day of hope for the US and the world. GOTV!