Skip to main content

The genesis for this title is a Willamette Week article titled "Red Dawn" published in July of 2006 which claimed, at the time, to show evidence of a Republican surge in the Beaver State.  It goes without saying that those predictions were dead wrong as the Democratic party has more than tripled its registration edge in my home state and seems poised to post strong wins statewide.  Below are my final summary predictions and some things to watch Thursday.

Cross-Posted from Loaded Orygun: http://www.loadedorygun.net/...

The Statewide Layout:

Total Registered Voters: About 2.2 Million.
Democrats: 45%
Republicans: 32.5%.
Nonpartisan/Others: 23.5%.

Turnout Projection: 80-85%.  We're at about 54% as of yesterday in Multnomah County, which closely parallels the state as a whole (http://www.co.multnomah.or.us/...).  Democrats are currently outvoting Republicans by 7% and Independents/Third Party Members are lagging well behind that pace.  As of now, just less than half of the votes cast in Oregon have been cast by Democrats.  I doubt that margin will hold but if we end up anywhere close to that it will be a very good night.  FYI, there is not a single county in the state currently where a higher percentage of Republicans have voted than Democrats.

This means I think that about 900-950k votes will be required to win statewide, once you account for third party votes in many races.

How to Watch OR Results:

There are four good places to track Oregon's results:

Official SOS vote tracker-http://www.sos.state.or.us/....  Note: There is no link there yet but it will go active on election night at 8 PM.  This is the best statewide results tracker.

KGW (Portland's NBC affiliate)-http://www.kgw.com/.  Widely considered the best in Portland, KGW often does live streams of its election results broadcasts.

The Oregonian-http://www.oregonlive.com/-Oregon's largest statewide paper, based in Portland.

The Register-Guard-http://www.registerguard.com/...-The leading paper in Eugene, Oregon's second largest city.

Results Reporting:

Results will typically be released on the following schedule (all times Pacific):

8 PM-Ballots due, Multnomah County releases its first count (ballots cast before Monday night), expect this result to be skewed in Obama's favor.
9-9:30 PM-Major counting completed of ballots cast prior to Monday/Tuesday in most counties.  Results are typically updated every 30-60 minutes.
11 PM-Most results apparent.  If the margin is 3% or less we may have to wait overnight but anything more than that they'll have called it by now.
12 PM Wednesday-Count completed by this time.

FYI, exit polling IS conducted via phone survey, so you can expect a call on the Presidential race at least AT 8 PM.

Things to watch for:

Washington and Clackamas Counties-If either goes blue, Merkley will win the Senate race, period.  I'm betting Washington does and Clackamas will be close.
36 State House Seats-Thanks to one of our crazy ballot measures in the 90s, you need a 3/5 majority in the legislature to pass revenue increases.  We have that in the Senate and will not lose it.  We need a net gain of 5 (which is I would say very possible) to get it in the State house.
Dark House State House races-There are always 1 or 2 that no one expects to be close but are (the races in Medford and the Dalles last time were and Minnis's seat was shockingly close in 2004).  They are almost never actual upsets but this year they may be.

Projected Results:

For a more detailed description of results, read my prior diary: How Blue will Oregon Be?: My Near-Final Predictions.

Key:

Size of Districts:
State House: Aprox. 55k.
State Senate: Aprox. 110k.

The incumbent is always listed first, or failing that, the incumbent party.  All minor parties are listed after the two major parties.
Party Key:
D=Democratic
R=Republican
G=Pacific Green
C=Constitution
L=Libertarian
I=Independent Party (This IS a political party, NOT those running as independents).
P=Peace Party (Ralph Nader's party formed to get him on the ballot).
N=Not a member of a party, or what is otherwise known as independent.

Key:
x-=Pickup.
l-=Loss.

Statewide Candidates:

US President-Obama (D).
US Senate=x-Merkley (D).
Secretary of State-Brown (D).
Attorney General-Kroger (D).
State Treasurer-Westlund (D).
Labor Commissioner-Avakian (Nonpartisan Office).

Ballot Measures:

Measure Type:
C-Constitutional.
S-Statutory.

Explanation of Special Case for Measures 57/61: Once it became apparent to the legislature last year that what is now known as Measure 61 would qualify and would likely pass, they referred their own alternative (Measure 57) to the ballot.  In order to deal with conflicts should both pass (as many, if not most, consider likely), the legislature put a clause in Measure 57 stating that if both pass, the one with more yes votes becomes law while the other fails.

Legislative Referrals:

Measure 54 (C):
Summary: This corrects a bizarre flaw in the state constitution that prohibits citizens under 21 from voting in school board elections (a provision which is, of course, not in effect but should be removed anyways).
Projection: Pass.

Measure 55 (C):
Summary: Minor fixes to the state's redistricting process.
Projection: Pass.

Measure 56 (S):
Summary: Partially repeals the Double Majority law requiring that 50% of registered voters cast ballots in an election for a bond measure to pass for May and November votes.
Projection: Pass.

Measure 57 (S):
Summary: Proposes an alternative to Kevin Mannix's (R-Of Course) property crime sentence minimum initiative.  Focuses state policy on treatment rather than prison for low level drug and property crimes.
Projection: Pass with more votes than Measure 61, thus becoming law.

Citizen Constitutional and Statutory Measures:

Measure 58 (S):
Chief Sponsor: Bill Sizemore.
Summary: This measure would require English immersion rather than ESL for children for whom English is not their primary language.
Projection: Fail.

Measure 59 (S):
Chief Sponsor: Bill Sizemore
Summary: This is at least the third time that Sizemore and his gang have proposed this measure, which makes federal income taxes fully deductible on state returns.  This measure largely benefits high wage earners and would blow a huge hole in the state's budget.
Projection: Fail.

Measure 60 (S):
Chief Sponsor: Bill Sizemore
Summary: This would require "merit-pay" for teachers in public schools.
Projection: Fail.

Measure 61 (S):
Chief Sponsor: Kevin Mannix
Summary: This is Kevin Mannix's draconian sentencing measure for property and low-level drug crimes.
Projection: Pass but with less votes than Measure 57, thus meaning it effectively fails.

Measure 62 (C):
Chief Sponsor: Kevin Mannix.
Summary: Dedicates 15% of Oregon Lottery proceeds to crime fighting/prevention efforts.
Projection: Fail.

Measure 63 (S):
Chief Sponsor; Bill Sizemore
Summary: This measure would allow minor home modifications (costing less than $35k) without a permit.
Projection: Fail.

Measure 64 (S):
Chief Sponsor: Bill Sizemore
Summary: Sizemore brings back an old and twice-failed idea to ban public-employee unions from using dues for political purposes.
Projection: Fail.

Measure 65 (S):
Chief Sponsor: Former SOS Phil Keisling (D)
Summary: Creates a Top-Two Open Primary in which all parties run their candidates on the same ballot and the top two, regardless of party affiliation, advance to the general election.
Projection: Fail, narrowly.

Congressional Races:

District 1: Wu (D-inc).
District 2: Walden (R-inc).
District 3: Blumenauer (D-inc).
District 4: DeFazio (D-inc).
District 5: Schrader (D).

Oregon Legislature:

Key: *=Targeted Seat.

Oregon Senate:

Current Composition: 18D, 11R, 1 I.
Projected Composition: 18D, 12R (1 I to D and one D to R).

Safe Races:
1 (Roseburg)-Kruse (R).
2 (Central Point)-Atkinston (R).
5 (Lincoln City)-Verger (D).
14 (West Slope/Beaverton)-Hass (D).
18 (Tigard/SW Portland)-Burdick (D).
21 (SE Portland)-Rosenbaum (D).
22 (Portland)-Carter (D).
23 (NE Portland)-x-Dingfelder (D), this is technically a net pickup of 1, as Avel Gordly is an I.
25 (Gresham)-Monnes Anderson (D)-This one may be a bit closer than expected because the Rs have fielded a candidate via write-in.  I still believe it is going to be Monnes Anderson by a lot though.
28 (Klamath Falls)-Whitsett (R).
29 (Pendleton)-Nelson (R).
30 (Ontario)-Ferriolli (R).

Competitive Races:
9 (Stayton)-Girod (R).
12 (McMinnville)-Boquist (R).
*27 (Bend)-l-Telfer (R).

Oregon House:

Current Composition: 31 D, 29 R.
Projected Composition: 38 D, 22 R.

The following seats are rated either safe or likely:

1 (Gold Beach)-Krieger (R).
2 (Myrtle Creek)-Freeman (R).
3 (Grants Pass)-Maurer (R).
4 (Central Point)-Richardson (R).
5 (Ashland)-Buckley (D).
7 (Roseburg)-Hanna (R).
8 (Eugene)-Holvey (D).
9 (Coos Bay)-Roblan (D).
10 (Newport)-Cowan (D)-She won this seat by all of 750 votes two years ago and the Rs couldn't find an opponent for her.
11 (Eugene)-Barnhart (D).
12 (Springfield)-Beyer (D).
13 (Eugene)-Nathanson (D).
14 (Eugene)-Edwards (D).
16 (Corvallis)-Gelser (D).
21 (Salem)-Clem (D).
22 (Woodburn)-Komp (D).
25 (Keizer)-Thatcher (R).
27 (West Slope, my district!)-Read (D).
28 (Beaverton)-Barker (D).
29 (Hillsboro)-Riley (D).
31 (Clatskanie)-Witt (D).
32 (Cannon Beach)-Boone (D).
33 (Portland)-Greenlick (D).
34 (Beaverton)-Harker (D).
35 (Tigard)-Galizio (D).
36 (Portland)-Nolan (D).
38 (Lake Oswego)-Garrett (D).
40 (Oregon City)-Hunt (D).
41 (Milwaukie)-Tomei (D).
42 (Portland)-Koppel-Bailey (D).
43 (Portland)-Shields (D).
44 (Portland)-Kotek (D).
45 (Portland)-Dembrow (D).
46 (Portland)-Cannon (D).
47 (Portland)-J. Smith (D).
48 (Happy Valley)-Schaufler (D).
53 (Sunriver)-Whisnant (R).
55 (Medford)-Gilliam (R).
56 (Klamath Falls)-Garrard (R).
57 (Heppner)-G. Smith (R).
58 (Pendleton)-Jenson (R).
60 (Ontario)-Benz (R).

Projected Pickups (all D):

*26 (Wilsonville)-x-Adamson (D).
*37 (West Linn)-x-Eberle (D).
*49 (Gresham)-x-Kahl (D).
*50 (Fairview)-x-Matthews (D).
*51 (Clackamas)-x-Barton (D).
*52 (Corbett)-x-VanOrman (D).
*54 (Bend)-x-Stiegler (D).

Projected Holds (D or R):

Note: These are all possible takeovers by the opposition party.  I am merely stating that I think they are more likely to be holds than takeovers, although in some cases, like the Canby seat, it will be very close.

6 (Medford)-Esquivel (R).
15 (Albany)-Olson (R).
17 (Scio)-Sprenger (R).
18 (Silverton)-Gilliam (R).
19 (Salem)-Cameron (R).
20 (Independence/Monmouth)-Berger (R).
23 (Dallas)-Thompson (R).
24 (McMinnville)-Wiedner (R).
*30 (Hillsboro)-Edwards (D).
*39 (Canby)-Kennemer (R).
59 (The Dalles)-Huffman (R).

Well that’s it, let me know what you think.

Originally posted to skywaker9 on Sun Nov 02, 2008 at 10:29 PM PST.

Poll

How many seats will the Democrats win in the OR House?

11%2 votes
5%1 votes
5%1 votes
27%5 votes
44%8 votes
5%1 votes

| 18 votes | Vote | Results

EMAIL TO A FRIEND X
Your Email has been sent.
You must add at least one tag to this diary before publishing it.

Add keywords that describe this diary. Separate multiple keywords with commas.
Tagging tips - Search For Tags - Browse For Tags

?

More Tagging tips:

A tag is a way to search for this diary. If someone is searching for "Barack Obama," is this a diary they'd be trying to find?

Use a person's full name, without any title. Senator Obama may become President Obama, and Michelle Obama might run for office.

If your diary covers an election or elected official, use election tags, which are generally the state abbreviation followed by the office. CA-01 is the first district House seat. CA-Sen covers both senate races. NY-GOV covers the New York governor's race.

Tags do not compound: that is, "education reform" is a completely different tag from "education". A tag like "reform" alone is probably not meaningful.

Consider if one or more of these tags fits your diary: Civil Rights, Community, Congress, Culture, Economy, Education, Elections, Energy, Environment, Health Care, International, Labor, Law, Media, Meta, National Security, Science, Transportation, or White House. If your diary is specific to a state, consider adding the state (California, Texas, etc). Keep in mind, though, that there are many wonderful and important diaries that don't fit in any of these tags. Don't worry if yours doesn't.

You can add a private note to this diary when hotlisting it:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from your hotlist?
Are you sure you want to remove your recommendation? You can only recommend a diary once, so you will not be able to re-recommend it afterwards.
Rescue this diary, and add a note:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from Rescue?
Choose where to republish this diary. The diary will be added to the queue for that group. Publish it from the queue to make it appear.

You must be a member of a group to use this feature.

Add a quick update to your diary without changing the diary itself:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary?
(The diary will be removed from the site and returned to your drafts for further editing.)
(The diary will be removed.)
Are you sure you want to save these changes to the published diary?

Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (11+ / 0-)

    Enjoy Jeff's final ad, and know that YES WE WILL:

    "Polls are like crack, political activists know they're bad for them but they read them anyways."-Unknown

    by skywaker9 on Sun Nov 02, 2008 at 10:29:46 PM PST

  •  dKos Liveblogging to come from DPO party. (4+ / 0-)

    I think this layout from Loaded Orygun is just about spot on. If I have any contentions it's with ballot measures 57 and 61.

    Polling on those two measures is spotty at best and canvassing suggests that my rural Oregon roots aren't as certain as the State may think. We may see a straight-NO-ballot vote (not the first time thanks to Mannix and Sizemore).

    House 19 is an "iffy". Rep. Hooley had more influence than the polls suggest. Hold on that party, GOP.

    Roblan's a given in House 9. That's home to me.

    Jefferson Smith (Bus Project man extraordinare) is a solid win. Great guy and a solid future in Oregon Politics. Watch him shine.

    Measure 65 was a toughie for me. I like the concept, but want to see what Washington State does with it after a few elections before running it in Oregon. No need to be the "leader" on something that's already being trialed in a neighboring state, I say.  I voted against, but think it may still pass, narrowly. We'll see.

    Anyway, blogging from the Convention Center starts in less than 48 hours! GOREGON!

    "Hew out of the mountain of despair A Stone of Hope." -Rev. Martin Luther King, Jr.

    by Patch Adam on Sun Nov 02, 2008 at 10:38:32 PM PST

    •  I will almost be among the folks (4+ / 0-)

      Who have gotten tickets to the event, should be fun.  I was there four years ago and well, I don't want to think too much about that night, but this will be better..

      "Polls are like crack, political activists know they're bad for them but they read them anyways."-Unknown

      by skywaker9 on Sun Nov 02, 2008 at 10:39:59 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  I went back & forth on 65 myself (3+ / 0-)

      but decided in the end to trust Phil Keisling. I like the concept and I hope it passes. I think Oregon is a better testing ground since we do have our vote by mail solidly in place and working well. And with record turnout this year, I suspect that Oregon's voting system will be the envy of the States.

      Never moon a werewolf.

      by Bugsby on Sun Nov 02, 2008 at 11:10:49 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I just think (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Vico, Jyrinx, polar bear

        That if you want to vote in a primary, join a party, it's not that hard, rather than risk poison pill voting...

        "Polls are like crack, political activists know they're bad for them but they read them anyways."-Unknown

        by skywaker9 on Sun Nov 02, 2008 at 11:41:24 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  I can understand your caution on 65, but... (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          skywaker9, YoyogiBear

          remember the Republicans who tried to game our Democratic primary by registering Dem so they could vote for Hillary? These Limbaugh Hillary voters were actually encouraged in their scam by the creep Reinhard on the editorial pages of the Oregonian.

          Now that kind of crap allows one party to undermine another and it's dead wrong. By forcing a choice among all the candidates on the same day, the open primary would put an end to it.

          Never moon a werewolf.

          by Bugsby on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 01:09:29 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

    •  France nominated Le Pen because of (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      skywaker9, polar bear

      a Measure 65-like system, which was a national embarrassment. (Imagine that Pat Buchanan won the GOP primary.)

      The unintended consequences of this are very real possibilities in the event of a hotly contested primary.

      Denny Crane: But if he supports a law, and then agrees to let it lapse … then that would make him …

      Shirley Schmidt: A Democrat.

      by Jyrinx on Sun Nov 02, 2008 at 11:54:18 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  So if Skywaker's wrong, (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      skywaker9, polar bear

      it'll be in favor of neither 57 nor 61 passing? That makes me a happy person. I voted yes on 57, largely because it's not disastrously, outrageously horrible, so just so long as 61 doesn't pass, I'm more than satisfied …

      Denny Crane: But if he supports a law, and then agrees to let it lapse … then that would make him …

      Shirley Schmidt: A Democrat.

      by Jyrinx on Sun Nov 02, 2008 at 11:57:40 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Another great one, thanks! (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    skywaker9, Bugsby, YoyogiBear

    In addition to the fact that in 2 days we'll have the best pair of United States Senators in the country; it's going to be wonderful to prove once again that this equation still holds true -

    Bill Sizemore + Kevin Mannix = Fail!!!

    You lose, sirs!

    Heh...

    ..................

    Things look really good in the Oregon House, too.  It looks like our whole state is becoming as solid as my area here in inner SE Portland...

    •  Inner SE, eh? Howdy, neighbor! (3+ / 0-)

      Our son was down at Division St. HQ this afternoon working to get out the vote. While he was there, Howard Dean dropped by with Wyden, Merkley, Kroger and Brown. Very exciting to see so many of our notables.

      Never moon a werewolf.

      by Bugsby on Sun Nov 02, 2008 at 11:18:09 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I found out about that too late! (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        skywaker9, Bugsby, YoyogiBear

        I live about 15 blocks from the Division HQ, and pass it every day on the 4 bus line on my way into work.  For that matter, I also just passed by it about an hour and a half ago on my way back home from grocery shopping at New Seasons...

        Would have loved to have been around to see My Man Howard Dean, but it's good enough just knowing that we're getting the job done.

        And howdy right back at ya!

        •  Besides Tuesday (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Bugsby, Hardhat Democrat

          Will be much sweeter than seeing Dean...

          "Polls are like crack, political activists know they're bad for them but they read them anyways."-Unknown

          by skywaker9 on Sun Nov 02, 2008 at 11:35:43 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Oh, yeah! (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            skywaker9, Bugsby, polar bear

            But unfortunately I'll be spending it at work, and I work swing shifts.  Tried but couldn't get the day off, so I'll be working 3 PM until midnight-ish on Tuesday.  

            So instead I'll be stuck that whole day at work trying (and failing...) not to constantly check my cell phone for updates and news and stuff.  The good news about now working swings though is that of course I don't have to be back at work until 3 PM on Wednesday, so I can stay up and out as late as I want celebrating our many wins.  Bring on the beer!

            Heh.

            I'll be quite sure to have a fridge full of local craft brews that night...may even have to stop at Laurelwood tomorrow for a few growlers of the Free Range Red...

  •  Voting Democratic in Clackamas (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    skywaker9

    I just wanted to let you know that I already voted in Clackamas and voted straight Dem.

    Man I hope Merkley wins.  The joy I would feel at knowing we got rid of Gordon Smith with an actual progressive would be almost as exciting as an Obama landslide on Tues.

    American overseas? Request your ballot at www.VoteFromAbroad.org

    by YoyogiBear on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 03:27:26 AM PST

Subscribe or Donate to support Daily Kos.

Click here for the mobile view of the site