New PPP polls are out in 4 key battleground states. The bad news is that 2 of the 3 where they've polled previously show some tightening (this is their first poll in PA). The good news is that Obama remains ahead in all 4.
Basic results (previous poll in brackets)
Pennsylvania: Obama +8
Obama 53
McCain 45
Virginia: Obama +6
Obama 52 (52)
McCain 46 (43)
Ohio: Obama +2
Obama 50 (51)
McCain 48 (44)
North Carolina: Obama +1
Obama 50 (49)
McCain 49 (48)
Full details here
I find this polling quite consistent with other recent surveys which have found a tightening in the polls due to McCain picking up undecideds and weak 3rd-party votes. It's notable that Obama's figures remain at or above 50% in all 4 battlegrounds, which is very important going into the close.
In the context of recent polling the Pennsylvania result is probably the most reassuring. Even if we allow that PPP has a slight Dem lean, it seems that Obama is still well on track to win this state despite McCain's desperate last efforts. Polling in Pennsylvania recently has been very consistent about Obama's standing, varying from around 51-53, with McCain's level in a range from around 44-47. He's clearly closed the gap, but time's running out for him and he hasn't really eaten into Obama's support.
Ohio has tightened considerably since PPP last polled there 10 days ago, but again it appears to be undecideds coming home to McCain rather than Obama support slipping. Good news is that 30% have already voted and Obama has a huge lead there, 65-34 on their estimation. So Ohio is yet another state where McCain will have to come from behind.
North Carolina, PPP's base and the state they probably understand best, remains extremely close. Here again there's some good news from early voting: Obama leads 55-45 on their estimate (this is very similar to my guesstimate based on the demographic breakdown), meaning he's banked a lead of around 250,000. The bad news is that McCain leads 56-42 among those intending to vote on the day. Perhaps we should be hoping for rain in the Ohio and North Carolina areas!!
Finally, Virginia shows a 3 point tightening, once again via undecideds coming home to McCain. The good news is that there are very few undecideds still left, and Obama's 52% score and 42% among white voters are unchanged from the previous survey.
Overall, there seems to be a definite pattern of McCain closing the gap in some of the key battlegrounds by picking off undecided voters while Obama's vote holds firm. It's the story not just in these PPP polls but in many others we've seen in the last few days from a variety of polling organisations.
The other clear message is that Obama has done brilliantly in early voting in pretty much every state where that's been a significant feature. Without exception he has done better among early voters than among those who say they'll vote on election day, usually by wide margins. So almost everywhere he is carrying a lead into election day, often a highly significant one, and the question is whether McCain can get out sufficient of his vote to overturn Obama's starting lead. Given his weaker GOTV operation I suspect the answer will in most cases be "no". But I don't think the fat lady has sung yet - McCain's kept it close enough that there's little risk of complacency setting in.
[Update] Montana results not yet out but they just gave an exciting hint: "Another state with a huge Obama lead banked". Wow, in Montana?! I certainly wasn't expecting that.
[update2] Montana results now out:
Obama 48
McCain 47
Ron Paul 4
Not only that, Obama is up a massive 61-35 in early voting, which is 40% of 2004 totals. We need rain across the country on election day!!
[update 3] Florida results now out:
Obama 50 (48)
McCain 48 (47)
Early voting again very pro-Obama: he has a 56-43 lead there with over half already having voted. So McCain will need to win by a wide margin on Tuesday to take Florida. Let it rain, let it rain, let it rain!