When initial returns come in from Indiana and Kentucky - they should give us a lot of clues as to the outcome of the Presidential election. I am suggesting several counties to pay attention to. One can go to the CNN Presidential maps for each state and click on the appropriate county to see current returns - both actual numbers and percentages. Similar maps may also be available here at Daily KOS.
For Obama to win Indiana (CNN county map) he must do significantly better than Kerry did in 2004. Kerry received just under 40% of the vote. The counties I am going to focus on are all in the EDT zone, reporting in the first hour of returns at 6pm EDT. Both percent of the vote and raw vote margins are important, but if the percent is high it means the vote numbers are probably high, and if the vote numbers are high the percent will probably be also. So if we get one, we likely get the other. I don't know if the first votes reported will be from early voting. Historically these have favored Republicans, but with a significant amount of early in-person voting this year (over 25% now versus 10% in 2004), it may overstate Obama's final vote.
First, two counties where the Democratic percent does not go up much, even when Democrats win in Indiana (such as Senator and Governor) compared to the presidential race.
DEARBORN county (near Cincinnati). Kerry 32%. Good news if Obama can reach the upper 30s.
MONROE county (Bloomington and IU). Kerry 54%. Good news if Obama can reach 60% and a margin of 11,000 votes.
Next two counties where the Democratic percent typically goes up a lot when Democrats win as compared to the presidential race.
GRANT county (Marion). Kerry 31%. Will likely need close to 50% for Obama to win.
VIGO county (Terre Haute). Kerry 47%. Will likely need 60% and close to a 9,000 vote margin.
The most populous county.
MARION county (Indianapolis). Kerry 51%. Will need at least 60% and a margin of 70,000 - definitely relying on a very large turnout.
Three other key counties.
TIPPECANOE county (Purdue Univ.). Kerry 40%. Need at least 50% Obama.
ST. JOSEPH county (Notre Dame). Kerry 49%. Need at least 60% Obama.
ALLEN county (Ft. Wayne). Kerry 36%. Need at least 46% Obama.
The counties in the CDT time zone which close an hour later include some heavy Democratic counties in NW Indiana and counties in the SW (around Evansville) which typically go Republican for President, but often Democratic for other offices. The 10 counties in the CST zone split 50-50 between Bush and Kerry and thus should boost Obama.
It is unlikely that Obama will win KENTUCKY (CNN county map). But performance in several counties could give a good preview of what might happen in nearby Ohio, West Virgina, Virginia and Pennsylvania. The counties I am going to focus on are all in the EDT zone, reporting in the first hour of returns at 6pm EDT. Unlike Indiana, the modest amount of absentee voting, if reported first, should favor McCain.
First three counties where the Democratic percent does not go up much, even when Democrats win in Kentucky. All three are adjacent to Cincinnati Ohio.
BOONE county. Kerry 28%.
CAMPBELL county. Kerry 35%
KENTON county. Kerry 34%.
If Obama matches Kerry's percentages this will be reassuring. If he beats Kerry's percentages by about 5%, this is very good news for similar areas of SW Virginia and SE Ohio. If Obama exceeds Kerry by 10% then perhaps even West Virginia is in play, not to mention Kentucky.
Next two counties where the Democratic percent typically goes up a lot when Democrats win as compared to the presidential race.
FAYETTE county (Lexington). Kerry 46%.
MADISON county (Richmond). Kerry 37%.
A good sign if Obama's numbers are 10% to 15% higher. Certainly necessary if Lundsford is to win the Senate seat.
Next several counties along the Virgina, West Virginia and Ohio borders providing evidence of Obama's strength in neighboring states.
MARTIN county (borders VA). Kerry 33%
BOYD county (near Huntington WV). Kerry 47%.
GREENUP county (near Portsmouth OH). Kerry 47%.
Hopefully Obama will lead in both Boyd and Greenup counties.
Finally, several Eastern Kentucky counties which typically vote heavily Republican.
PULASKI county. Kerry 23%.
CASEY county. Kerry 19%.
Jackson county. Kerry 15%.
Any improvemnt in the Kerry figures would be good news.
Added note: For Lundsford to win the senate seat, he needs to perform 10 percentage point higher than Kerry throughout the state. In the largest county - JEFFERSON (Louisville), this means close to 65% and a margin of 80,000 votes.
I hope this is helpful to some of you as you look at the very early election returns from Indiana and Kentucky. I certainly have enjoyed trying to put together a good analysis. Of course, I really want to enjoy some good election returns which exceed my expectations and hopes.
CNN county mapCNN county map