Can you believe we are finally here? I have a full round-up of election info, including what states to watch throughout the day and as the polls close this evening. Most pundits and analysts agree that we should start to get a good sense of where the evening will go shortly after the first polls close.
Also, lots of inspiration from the Obama campaign to inspire you during your final GOTV push.
Before we get started, Signs of Hope and Change from Team Obama:
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Here's a handy map of poll closing times, courtesy of Swing State Project:
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If you haven't already, be sure to check out the DK 2008 Election Guide and refer to it throughout the night. Brownsox has a detailed view of ALL the important races. Also, the DK Election Scorecard will be essential viewing throughout the evening.
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The AP says to keep an eye on Georgia, Virginia and Indiana:
Election watchers won't have to wait for polls to close in the West to know how things are going. The first clues will come early, when voting ends in Georgia, Indiana and Virginia. If Democrat Barack Obama wins any of the three, he could be on his way to a big victory, maybe even a landslide.
These will be our first indications of how things are going.
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My eyes will be on Virginia all night because it is a state (along with Arizona) that I really want to go blue and become another Democratic stronghold for future elections. The Miami Herald also thinks Virginia will be a focus of much attention in the early hours:
If Republican John McCain wins Virginia, however, talk of an Obama landslide ends pretty abruptly, and the electoral contest could turn out to be a close one.
But if Obama wins Virginia:
"An Obama win in Virginia would be a sign the race is over,'' said John Fortier, a research fellow at Washington's American Enterprise Institute who wrote a book about the U.S. Electoral College. "If he wins Virginia, he is likely to be doing well elsewhere.''
And Nate Silver agrees:
Virginia, for my money, is the most important state in this election.
I am very confident Obama will win Virginia, and I will be watching it very closely!
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Howard Dean's pollster, Paul Maslin, also thinks Virginia will provide some clues as to which polling turnout model (traditional vs. expanded turnout from young voters and minorities) is more accurate:
The best piece of early evidence among the night's numbers as to which turnout model is more accurate may be Virginia. If Virginia is called for Obama immediately after the polls close at 7 p.m. Eastern, based on both exit polls and key precinct results, then a near double-digit national margin may be possible, fueled by African-American and younger/suburban votes. That would undoubtedly bode well for Obama's chances in North Carolina, Florida and the growing Western states such as Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico.
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The Washington Post also reports that the downballot races in the 7pm states will provide early indications:
Down-ballot races could provide a clue, analysts said. The Senate Republican leader, Mitch McConnell, is expected to prevail in Kentucky, where polls close by 7 p.m., but if he is trailing it would be a bad omen for McCain. The same goes for Republican Sen. Saxby Chambliss in Georgia, another 7 p.m. state where Cook thinks Obama has an outside shot.
Since I'm hoping that both McConnell and Chambliss lose, this would be a nice scenario indeed!
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John Dickerson at Slate points out what to watch in Florida:
Watch the I-4 corridor, the area between Tampa and Orlando where both campaigns have been working hard in Hillsborough, Pinellas, Polk, and Osceola counties. In early voting in the state, Democrats have an edge of more than 300,000 votes. Upon seeing this, some Republicans may head into the root cellar. That's a big margin for McCain to make up on Election Day. His team has to hope that the early voting came from reliable Democratic base voters, which would mean they've just gotten their usual Election Day support—just earlier than usual. Obama aides say lots of their early vote comes from new and sporadic voters. If they're right—and evidence suggests they may be—then Florida could go blue.
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I'm also going to keep my eye on Georgia. I think Georgia is somewhat of a stretch for Obama - although it's not impossible given the early voting - but if Obama can keep it close in Georgia, I think that bodes well for Virginia and North Carolina. As Sean Quinn at 538 reports:
Indeed, Obama is doing better with white voters in Georgia than either Kerry or Gore. In early voting, African-American voting was 35%. 25% is the historic level. As for totals after election day comes and goes, Adelman said, "anything over 30% and we're gonna win."
and:
We asked about the insanely long lines, and whether that would hamper voting. First, we learned, Barack Obama has "Comfort Teams," which are all volunteer forces who don't campaign, but simply bring water, hot chocolate and snacks. "No campaigning, no materials," Adelman said, just making sure the people who have to wait in long lines aren't hungry or thirsty.
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Of course, all eyes will also be on Pennsylvania, as CBS News reports:
And Pennsylvania -- Democratic for the last five elections -- is the 'blue" state McCain has to win to make his road to the White House plausible. Keep this one in mind, if McCain cannot win Pennsylvania, he almost certainly cannot win the election.
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The New York Times reminds us not to read too much into the timing of state calls. That is, if a state is not called right away, don't automatically assume the worst:
A note of caution: If a network calls a state, you might be able to extrapolate something. But if a network does not call a state, don’t read too much into it. It may be that there was something wrong with the exit polls (anyone remember President John Kerry in 2004?).
Given the weakness of the exit polls in 2004, I'm sure the networks will be very careful to make sure they are absolutely certain about any state calls.
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ABC News posts its final polling results this morning:
With our last night of interviewing complete we’re ending our ABC News/Washington Post tracking poll with our final horse race estimate unchanged at 53-44 percent, Obama-McCain. That’s among 2,304 likely voters interviewed Friday through Monday.
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Larry Sabato provided his Election eve update to his predictions, sticking with 364 EVs for Obama and 174 for McCain:
If Barack Obama wins the popular vote by 7 or 8 percentage points, then he will also carry at least a couple of the following states: Arizona, Georgia, Indiana, Montana, North Dakota.
If Barack Obama should end up by 3 or 4 percent of the popular vote, then it is possible that John McCain will carry a couple of the following states: Florida, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio.
The Crystal Ball expects Barack Obama to run closer to the maximum than to the minimum in the popular vote tally.
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CBS4 polled Florida 24 hours before the vote count:
According to a CBS4 News tracking poll, Florida's 27 electoral votes may be within reach of Barack Obama. The Democratic candidate leads 3:2 among those who claim to have already voted. However, McCain leads 3:2 among those who have not yet voted.
This means Tuesday's voter turnout will be crucial to offset the balance. In the mix of those polled there were 58% early voters and 42% same-day voters, which, when combined, results in Florida voting Obama 50%, McCain 47%. This is with a ± 3.8% margin of error.
If the number of same-day voters equals the number of early voters, the contest is a tie, but if the number of voters on November 4th exceeds early voters, McCain would win. If voter turnout on the 4th is less than the number of early voters, Obama would win.
I have to admit I find the articles on Florida voting to be very confusing. It is too much thinking for my little mind.
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Salon's Walter Shapiro reports on his impressions on the ground in Ohio:
After four days of reporting in Ohio, I have found scant evidence that contradicts the statewide polls, which hand the lead to Obama in 18 of the 20 most recent surveys.
At Fiore's bowling alley Saturday afternoon in the tiny Appalachian town of New Lexington, I heard enough derogatory references to McCain's age to fuel a "Saturday Night Live" skit, with even a supporter of the 72-year-old senator calling him a "great, great grandfather."
Shapiro also looks at McCain's strategy in Pennsylvania:
The McCain formula for victory in Pennsylvania (where the polls close at 8 p.m.) depends on miraculously holding Obama to a 400,000-vote margin in Philadelphia and coming out of the suburbs fewer than 100,000 votes behind. What that means is that Obama would have to run behind Kerry's totals (ha!) in both the city and its suburbs.
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David Letterman is still getting some good jokes in at McCain's expense. From last night's show:
"Today Barack Obama campaigned in Florida and Virginia. And McCain campaigned in two states: panic and desperation."
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The Nation encourages all citizens to be grassroots activists today:
But ultimately there is only one way Tuesday's vote will be protected--if thousands of committed, independent public citizens show up at the polls with cameras, note pads, cell phones and lawyers, bound and determined to protect this election.
As Rachel Maddow said last night, don't let anyone question your right to vote. If you see someone interfering with another person's right to vote, step in.
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Bob Herbert has a great Op-Ed in the New York Times that reminds me what we are fighting for with this election:
The point here is that as we approach the end of the first decade of the 21st century, the United States is in deep, deep trouble. Yet instead of looking for creative, 21st-century solutions to these enormous problems, too many of our so-called leaders are behaving like clowns, or worse — spouting garbage in the public sphere that hearkens back to the 1940s and ’50s.
Thoughtful, well-educated men and women are denounced as elites, and thus the enemies of ordinary Americans. Attempts to restore a semblance of fiscal sanity to a government that has been looted with an efficiency that would have been envied by the mob, are derided as subversive — the work of socialists, Marxists, Communists.
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If you are looking for a final dose of inspiration to get you through your final GOTV efforts, watch this video! Patch posted this video in the comments yesterday, and it is so fantastic:
I admit this video makes me weepy because I am so proud of all of you - all of you who have canvassed, phonebanked, talked with your neighbors, emailed your friends, attended a rally, held up a sign on a street corner, volunteered your time, donated money or done many other things to make this moment possible.
And I'm so proud of all of you today who will stay in line or encourage others to stay in line, who will help GOTV in the battlegrounds, who will offer rides to the polls, who will volunteer, who will offer help where it is needed and who will VOTE!
This is it - Election day has arrived - and I only have three words for you: Yes we can!
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Anything else to add? What will you be watching for today and tonight?