Most of us -- myself included -- have made a pretty big deal about fivethirtyeight.com, Nate Silver's election projection website.
But, as some people pointed out, he doesn't really have a record of projecting national elections... until now.
Overall, he did extremely well. There were a few exceptions, such as Alaska, Hawaii and DC; however, the first two have "home state" biases that perhaps came out stronger than expected, and DC didn't exactly get a whole lot of polling. A few deep red states were redder than projected, and a few deep blue states were bluer than projected.
Also noteworthy is that he called every state correctly, except Indiana -- which he said "leaned GOP" but came out by just a hair for Obama. His average share of the electoral vote for Obama was right on with the current amount of EVs Obama has now; but if Obama ends up winning NC (and he should), that'll give Obama 364 EVs, which was the number that came up 3rd most often in his simulations.
Go Nate! State-by-state results after the fold. I'll try to put Pollster or RCP's estimates in next, to see how they did.
Alabama
Nate projected it at 60.8% McCain, 38.5% Obama
Actual results: 60.5% McCain, 38.8% Obama
Alaska
Nate: 56.4% McCain, 42.2% Obama
Actual: 61.5% McCain, 36.2% Obama
Arizona
Nate: 51.3% McCain, 46.4% Obama
Actual: 53.7% McCain, 45.1% Obama
Arkansas
Nate: 55.0% McCain, 44.0% Obama
Actual: 58.7% McCain, 38.8% Obama
California
Nate: 38.6% McCain, 59.2% Obama
Actual: 36.9% McCain, 61.2% Obama
Colorado
Nate: 46.1% McCain, 52.7% Obama
Actual: 45.8% McCain, 52.5% Obama
Connecticut
Nate: 39.1% McCain, 58.8% Obama
Actual: 38.6% McCain, 60.2% Obama
Delaware
Nate: 37.4% McCain, 61.5% Obama
Actual: 37.6% McCain, 61.3% Obama
Florida
Nate: 48.4% McCain, 50.1% Obama
Actual: 48.4% McCain, 50.8% Obama
Georgia
Nate: 51.2% McCain, 47.5% Obama
Actual: 52.4% McCain, 46.9% Obama
Hawaii
Nate: 34.9% McCain, 62.4% Obama
Actual: 26.6% McCain, 71.8% Obama
Idaho
Nate: 59.0% McCain, 38.4% Obama
Actual: 61.6% McCain, 36.0% Obama
Iowa
Nate: 42.9% McCain, 54.6% Obama
Actual: 44.7% McCain, 54.0% Obama
Illinois
Nate: 38.4% McCain, 60.2% Obama
Actual: 37.1% McCain, 61.5% Obama
Indiana
Nate: 50.0% McCain, 48.4% Obama
Actual: 49.0% McCain, 49.9% Obama
Kansas
Nate: 55.8% McCain, 42.2% Obama
Actual: 56.8% McCain, 41.4% Obama
Kentucky
Nate: 56.0% McCain, 42.4% Obama
Actual: 57.4% Mccain, 41.1% Obama
Louisiana
Nate: 54.2% McCain, 44.3% Obama
Actual: 58.6% McCain, 39.9% Obama
Maine
Nate: 41.6% McCain, 56.1% Obama
Actual: 40.2% McCain, 58.0% Obama
Maryland
Nate: 38.1% McCain, 61.1% Obama
Actual: 37.7% McCain, 61.0% Obama
Massachusetts
Nate: 39.1% McCain, 59.0% Obama
Actual: 36.3% McCain, 62.0% Obama
Michigan
Nate: 42.6% McCain, 55.2% Obama
Actual: 40.1% McCain, 57.4% Obama
Minnesota
Nate: 44.0% McCain, 54.1% Obama
Actual: 44.0% McCain, 54.2% Obama
Mississippi
Nate: 54.7% McCain, 43.4% Obama
Actual: 56.5% McCain, 42.7% Obama
Missouri
Nate: 49.4% McCain, 49.2% Obama
Actual: 49.5% McCain, 49.3% Obama
Montana
Nate: 50.4% McCain, 47.7% Obama
Actual: 50.1% McCain, 46.7% Obama
Nebraska
Nate: 56.9% McCain, 42.5% Obama
Actual: 57.3% McCain, 41.1% Obama
Nevada
Nate: 46.9% McCain, 51.7% Obama
Actual: 42.7% McCain, 55.1% Obama
New Hampshire
Nate: 44.0% McCain, 53.8% Obama
Actual: 44.4% McCain, 54.8% Obama
New Jersey
Nate: 41.5% McCain, 56.1% Obama
Actual: 42.2% McCain, 56.7% Obama
New Mexico
Nate: 44.9% McCain, 54.6% Obama
Actual: 41.8% McCain, 56.8% Obama
New York
Nate: 36.7% McCain, 62.1% Obama
Actual: 36.7% McCain, 62.2% Obama
North Carolina
Nate: 49.1% McCain, 50.1% Obama
Actual: 49.5% McCain, 49.8% Obama
North Dakota
Nate: 50.0% McCain, 47.3% Obama
Actual: 53.3% McCain, 44.6% Obama
Ohio
Nate: 47.4% McCain, 50.8% Obama
Actual: 47.0% McCain, 51.4% Obama
Oklahoma
Nate: 62.7% McCain, 37.1% Obama
Actual: 65.6% McCain, 34.3% Obama
Oregon (I believe they still have awhile to go)
Nate: 41.8% McCain, 56.5% Obama
Actual: 42.6% McCain, 55.4% Obama
Pennsylvania
Nate: 45.1% McCain, 53.2% Obama
Actual: 44.3% McCain, 54.6% Obama
Rhode Island
Nate: 36.7% McCain, 60.8% Obama
Actual: 35.0% McCain, 63.3% Obama
South Carolina
Nate: 54.4% McCain, 44.7% Obama
Actual: 54.1% McCain, 44.7% Obama
South Dakota
Nate: 53.3% McCain, 44.6% Obama
Actual: 53.1% McCain, 44.7% Obama
Tennessee
Nate: 55.9% McCain, 43.0% Obama
Actual: 56.9% McCain, 41.8% Obama
Texas
Nate: 55.3% McCain, 44.5% Obama
Actual: 55.5% McCain, 43.8% Obama
Utah
Nate: 61.3% McCain, 35.5% Obama
Actual: 62.8% McCain, 34.1% Obama
Vermont
Nate: 36.5% McCain, 61.1% Obama
Actual: 31.3% McCain, 67.0% Obama
Virginia
Nate: 46.5% McCain, 52.2% Obama
Actual: 47.3% McCain, 51.8% Obama
Washington
Nate: 42.0% McCain, 56.4% Obama
Actual: 40.8% McCain, 57.4% Obama
Washington, DC
Nate: 20.0% McCain, 79.4% Obama
Actual: 6.5% McCain, 92.8% Obama
West Virginia
Nate: 53.9% McCain, 44.1% Obama
Actual: 55.7% McCain, 42.6% Obama
Wisconsin
Nate: 43.1% McCain, 54.6% Obama
Actual: 42.8% McCain, 55.9% Obama
Wyoming
Nate: 61.9% McCain, 36.6% Obama
Actual: 65.2% McCain, 32.7% Obama