Those of us who have made a hobby out of predicting the outcome of the Presidential race are often tempted pull our shirts over our heads and quietly try to slip away after the actual results come out rather than face the music. But not me! I decided to plow head long into a comparison of my Electoral College predictions and the actual results in a complete exposed (yes, I am typing this in the nude) public manner. So posted after the jump /\ are the predictions from my last, pre-election Electoral College Math Diary in comparison to the actual results, on a State by State basis with a summary of the totals and assessment at the end. Also, you can use this diary to compare how the most recent polls and the poll averages from five thirty eight, stacked upagainst the actual State results. Time to have some fun!
For those of you who may not be familiar with my series of Electoral College Math diaries, which is probabaly almost all of you, here are the ground rules I used for ranking each State:
- A "safe" State for candidate is one where I felt the candidate had a +8 point lead or better in the State;
- A "lean" State for candidate is one where I felt the candidate had a +4 to +8 point lead in the State;
- A "toss up leaner" State for candidate is one where I felt the candidate had a +1 to +4 point lead in the State; and
- A "true toss up" State is one where I felt the margin was under 1 point to tied.
I will use these terms and margin ranges to compare to the actual margin of victory for the candidate in each State. Also, you can compare the actual margins with the most recent pre-election polls and 538 averages and trended averages for each State.
So without further delay, here we go!
Alaska (3 EVs)
Most Recent Poll Date: 10-29-08
Most Recent Poll Org.: Research 2000
Most Recent Poll Result: McCain +19
Trend From Previous Poll: Upward McCain
Average of All Polls: McCain +17.5
Poll Average With Trend: McCain +15.9
State Projection: Safe McCain (+8 or more)
State Actual: Safe McCain (+26)
Alabama (9 EVs)
Most Recent Poll Date: 10-28-08
Most Recent Poll Org.: SUSA
Most Recent Poll Result: McCain +25
Trend From Previous Poll: Upward McCain
Average of All Polls: McCain +24.1
Poll Average With Trend: McCain +22.8
State Projection: Safe McCain (+8 or more)
State Actual: Safe McCain (+21)
Arkansas (6 EVs)
Most Recent Poll Date: 10-27-08
Most Recent Poll Org.: Rasmussen
Most Recent Poll Result: McCain +10
Trend From Previous Poll: Steady McCain
Average of All Polls: McCain +11.3
Poll Average With Trend: McCain +10.8
State Projection: Safe McCain (+8 or more)
State Actual: Safe McCain (+20)
Arizona (10 EVs) [Swing State?]
Most Recent Poll Date: 10-29-08
Most Recent Poll Org.: Research 2000
Most Recent Poll Result: McCain +1
Trend From Previous Poll: Downward McCain
Average of All Polls: McCain +5.3
Poll Average With Trend: McCain +4.9
State Projection: Lean McCain (+4 to +8)
State Actual: Safe McCain (+9)
Comment: Close, but off by 1 point.
California (55 EVs)
Most Recent Poll Date: 10-30-08
Most Recent Poll Org.: SUSA
Most Recent Poll Result: Obama +24
Trend From Previous Poll: Steady Obama
Average of All Polls: Obama +20.1
Poll Average With Trend: Obama +21
State Projection: Safe Obama (+8 or more)
State Actual: Safe Obama (+24)
Colorado (9 EVs) [Swing State]
Most Recent Poll Date: 11-2-08
Most Recent Poll Org.: RasMussen
Most Recent Poll Result: Obama +4
Trend From Previous Poll: Steady Obama
Average of All Polls: Obama +6.6
Poll Average With Trend: Obama +6.5
State Projection: Lean Obama (+4 to +8)
State Actual: Lean Obama (+7)
Connecticut (7 EVs)
Most Recent Poll Date: 10-20-08
Most Recent Poll Org.: U of Conn.
Most Recent Poll Result: Obama +25
Trend From Previous Poll: Upward Obama
Average of All Polls: Obama +17.7
Poll Average With Trend: Obama +22
State Projection: Safe Obama (+8 or more)
State Actual: Safe Obama (+21)
District of Columbia (3 EVs)
Most Recent Poll Date: 9-12-08
Most Recent Poll Org.: ARG
Most Recent Poll Result: Obama +69
Trend From Previous Poll: None
Average of All Polls: Obama +69
Poll Average With Trend: Obama +71.2
State Projection: Safe Obama (+8 or more)
State Actual: Safe Obama (+86)
Comment: What a blow out!
Delaware (3 EVs)
Most Recent Poll Date: 10-28-08
Most Recent Poll Org.: SUSA
Most Recent Poll Result: Obama +30
Trend From Previous Poll: Upward Obama
Average of All Polls: Obama +20.9
Poll Average With Trend: Obama +23.2
State Projection: Safe Obama (+8 or more)
State Actual: Safe Obama (+23)
Florida (27 EVs) [Swing State]
Most Recent Poll Date: 11-3-08
Most Recent Poll Org.: Strategic Vision (R)*
Most Recent Poll Result: Obama +2
Trend From Previous Poll: Upward Obama
Average of All Polls: Obama +2
Poll Average With Trend: Obama +1.9
State Projection: Toss Up - Slight Obama Lean (+1 to +4)
State Actual: Toss Up - Slight Obama Lean (+3)
Comment: Tough swing state to predict, so pardon me while I pat myself on the back for this one. Also, Nate's 538's averages were almost riight on the nose.
Georgia (15 EVs) [Swing State?]
Most Recent Poll Date: 11-3-08
Most Recent Poll Org.: Insider Advantage*
Most Recent Poll Result: McCain +1
Trend From Previous Poll: Downward McCain
Average of All Polls: McCain +4.5
Poll Average With Trend: McCain +4.4
State Projection: Toss Up - Slight McCain Lean (+1 to +4)
State Actual: Lean McCain (+5)
Comment: My range was off by one, but Nate's averages were almost dead on.
Hawaii (4 EVs)
Most Recent Poll Date: 9-23-08
Most Recent Poll Org.: Rasmussen
Most Recent Poll Result: Obama +41
Trend From Previous Poll: Steady Obama
Average of All Polls: Obama +37
Poll Average With Trend: Obama +39.1
State Projection: Safe Obama (+8 or more)
State Actual: Safe Obama (+47)
Iowa (7 EVs)
Most Recent Poll Date: 10-30-08
Most Recent Poll Org.: Seltzer
Most Recent Poll Result: Obama +17
Trend From Previous Poll: Upward Obama
Average of All Polls: Obama +13.2
Poll Average With Trend: Obama +12.2
State Projection: Safe Obama (+8 or more)
State Actual: Safe Obama (+9)
Idaho (4 EVs)
Most Recent Poll Date: 10-21-08
Most Recent Poll Org.: Harstad
Most Recent Poll Result: McCain +23
Trend From Previous Poll: Downward McCain
Average of All Polls: McCain +24.1
Poll Average With Trend: McCain +24.2
State Projection: Safe McCain (+8 or more)
State Actual: Safe McCain (+26)
Illinois (21 EVs)
Most Recent Poll Date: 10-22-08
Most Recent Poll Org.: Research 2000
Most Recent Poll Result: Obama +24
Trend From Previous Poll: Steady Obama
Average of All Polls: Obama +21.2
Poll Average With Trend: Obama +23.6
State Projection: Safe Obama (+8 or more)
State Actual: Safe Obama (+25)
Indiana (11 EVs) [Swing State]
Most Recent Poll Date: 11-1-08
Most Recent Poll Org.: PPP (D)
Most Recent Poll Result: Obama +1
Trend From Previous Poll: Upward Obama
Average of All Polls: McCain +0.3
Poll Average With Trend: McCain +0.7
State Projection: True Toss Up (+1 to tie)
State Actual: Toss Up - Slight Obama Lean (+1)
Comment: I was right that this would be a toss up state, but I was wrong about who it would get tossed to. In the end I toosed a coin and picked Indiana to go to McCain it went to Obama. A happy mistake.
Kansas (6 EVs)
Most Recent Poll Date: 10-28-08
Most Recent Poll Org.: SUSA
Most Recent Poll Result: McCain +21
Trend From Previous Poll: Upward McCain
Average of All Polls: McCain +16.6
Poll Average With Trend: McCain +16.9
State Projection: Safe McCain (+8 or more)
State Actual: Safe McCain (+16)
Kentucky (8 EVs)
Most Recent Poll Date: 10-29-08
Most Recent Poll Org.: Rasmussen
Most Recent Poll Result: McCain +12
Trend From Previous Poll: Upward McCain
Average of All Polls: McCain +12.5
Poll Average With Trend: McCain +12.3
State Projection: Safe McCain (+8 or more)
State Actual: Safe McCain (+16)
Louisiana (9 EVs)
Most Recent Poll Date: 10-25-08
Most Recent Poll Org.: Loyola
Most Recent Poll Result: McCain +3
Trend From Previous Poll: Downward McCain
Average of All Polls: McCain +10.8
Poll Average With Trend: McCain +10.9
State Projection: Safe McCain (+8 or more)
State Actual: Safe McCain (+19)
Massachusetts (12 EVs)
Most Recent Poll Date: 10-28-08
Most Recent Poll Org.: SUSA
Most Recent Poll Result: Obama +17
Trend From Previous Poll: Steady Obama
Average of All Polls: Obama +20.1
Poll Average With Trend: Obama +19.8
State Projection: Safe Obama (+8 or more)
State Actual: Safe Obama (+26)
Maryland (10 EVs)
Most Recent Poll Date: 9-20-08
Most Recent Poll Org.: Rasmussen
Most Recent Poll Result: Obama +23
Trend From Previous Poll: Upward Obama
Average of All Polls: Obama +16.8
Poll Average With Trend: Obama +20.3
State Projection: Safe Obama (+8 or more)
State Actual: Safe Obama (+22)
Maine (4 EVs)
Most Recent Poll Date: 10-20-08
Most Recent Poll Org.: SUSA
Most Recent Poll Result: Obama +15
Trend From Previous Poll: Upward Obama
Average of All Polls: Obama +12.3
Poll Average With Trend: Obama +13.6
State Projection: Safe Obama (+8 or more)
State Actual: Safe Obama (+18)
Michigan (17 EVs)
Most Recent Poll Date: 10-29-08
Most Recent Poll Org.: PPP (D)
Most Recent Poll Result: Obama +13
Trend From Previous Poll: Steady Obama
Average of All Polls: Obama +12.5
Poll Average With Trend: Obama +12.6
State Projection: Safe Obama (+8 or more)
State Actual: Safe Obama (+16)
Minnesota (10 EVs)
Most Recent Poll Date: 10-29-08
Most Recent Poll Org.: PPP (D)
Most Recent Poll Result: Obama +16
Trend From Previous Poll: Steady Obama
Average of All Polls: Obama +11.8
Poll Average With Trend: Obama +10.8
State Projection: Safe Obama (+8 or more)
State Actual: Safe Obama (+10)
Missouri (11 EVs) [Swing State]
Most Recent Poll Date: 11-2-08
Most Recent Poll Org.: Rasmussen
Most Recent Poll Result: Tie
Trend From Previous Poll: Downward McCain
Average of All Polls: Obama +0.3
Poll Average With Trend: Obama +0.4
State Projection: True Toss Up (+1 to tie)
State Actual: True Toss Up - McCain (less than +1)
Comment: I was right that this would be a toss up state, but I was wrong about who it would get tossed to. In the end I picked Missouri to go to Obama. Although it is not official, it looks like Missouri will go to McCain. Boo Hoo, my second wrong pick.
Mississippi (6 EVs)
Most Recent Poll Date: 10-28-08
Most Recent Poll Org.: Research 2000
Most Recent Poll Result: McCain +13
Trend From Previous Poll: Steady McCain
Average of All Polls: McCain +10.7
Poll Average With Trend: McCain +10.9
State Projection: Safe McCain (+8 or more)
State Actual: Safe McCain (+12)
Montana (3 EVs) [Swing State]
Most Recent Poll Date: 11-1-08
Most Recent Poll Org.: PPP (D)
Most Recent Poll Result: Obama +1
Trend From Previous Poll: Upward Obama
Average of All Polls: McCain +1.8
Poll Average With Trend: McCain +1.6
State Projection: Toss Up - Slight McCain Lean (+1 to +4)
State Actual: Toss Up - Slight McCain Lean (+3)
North Carolina (15 EVs) [Swing State]
Most Recent Poll Date: 11-2-08
Most Recent Poll Org.: Rasmussen
Most Recent Poll Result: McCain +1
Trend From Previous Poll: Upward McCain
Average of All Polls: Obama +0.9
Poll Average With Trend: Obama +1
State Projection: True Toss Up (+1 to tie)
State Actual: True Toss Up - Obama (less than +1)
Comment: I was right that this would be a toss up state, but again I was wrong about who it would get tossed to. In the end I picked North Carolina to go to McCain. Although it is not official, it looks like its Obamas.
North Dakota (3 EVs) [Swing State]
Most Recent Poll Date: 10-29-08
Most Recent Poll Org.: Research 2000
Most Recent Poll Result: McCain +1
Trend From Previous Poll: Upward McCain
Average of All Polls: McCain +0.8
Poll Average With Trend: McCain +1.3
State Projection: True Toss Up (+1 to tie)
State Actual: Safe McCain (+8)
Comment: The polls suggested toss up, but it was not even close, and so was my coin flip that made me give North Dakota to Obamm.
Nebraska (5 EVs)
Most Recent Poll Date: 9-30-08
Most Recent Poll Org.: Rasmussen
Most Recent Poll Result: McCain +19
Trend From Previous Poll: Downward McCain
Average of All Polls: McCain +21.3
Poll Average With Trend: McCain +18.3
State Projection: Safe McCain (+8 or more)
State Actual: Safe McCain (+16)
Comment: Nebraska apportions its electoral votes by State winner and by Congressional District winner, it is not a winner take all State. So the 5 EVs could get divided up if Obama can win a district.
New Hampshire (4 EVs) [Swing State]
Most Recent Poll Date: 10-30-08
Most Recent Poll Org.: SUSA
Most Recent Poll Result: Obama +11
Trend From Previous Poll: Steady Obama
Average of All Polls: Obama +10.9
Poll Average With Trend: Obama +10.4
State Projection: Safe Obama (+8 or more)
State Actual: Safe Obama (+11)
New Jersey (15 EVs)
Most Recent Poll Date: 10-30-08
Most Recent Poll Org.: SUSA
Most Recent Poll Result: Obama +10
Trend From Previous Poll: Steady Obama
Average of All Polls: Obama +16.0
Poll Average With Trend: Obama +14.6
State Projection: Safe Obama (+8 or more)
State Actual: Safe Obama (+15)
New Mexico (5 EVs)
Most Recent Poll Date: 11-1-08
Most Recent Poll Org.: SUSA*
Most Recent Poll Result: Obama +7
Trend From Previous Poll: Downward Obama
Average of All Polls: Obama +11.6
Poll Average With Trend: Obama +11.5
State Projection: Safe Obama (+8 or more)
State Actual: Safe Obama (+15)
Nevada (5 EVs) [Swing State]
Most Recent Poll Date: 11-3-08
Most Recent Poll Org.: PPP (D)*
Most Recent Poll Result: Obama +4
Trend From Previous Poll: Steady Obama
Average of All Polls: Obama +5.3
Poll Average With Trend: Obama +5.3
State Projection: Lean Obama (+4 to +8)
State Actual: Safe Obama (+12)
Comment: Polls and I thought this would be closer.
New York (31 EVs)
Most Recent Poll Date: 10-28-08
Most Recent Poll Org.: SUSA
Most Recent Poll Result: Obama +29
Trend From Previous Poll: Steady Obama
Average of All Polls: Obama +29.2
Poll Average With Trend: Obama +28.5
State Projection: Safe Obama (+8 or more)
State Actual: Safe Obama (+25)
Ohio (20 EVs) [Swing State]
Most Recent Poll Date: 11-2-08
Most Recent Poll Org.: Rasmussen
Most Recent Poll Result: Tie
Trend From Previous Poll: Downward Obama
Average of All Polls: Obama +4.3
Poll Average With Trend: Obama +4.1
State Projection: Toss Up - Slight Obama Lean (+1 to +4)
State Actual: Toss Up - Slight Obama Lean (+4)
Comment: Wow! The averages from Nate at 538 were dead on.
Oklahoma (7 EVs)
Most Recent Poll Date: 10-29-08
Most Recent Poll Org.: SUSA
Most Recent Poll Result: McCain +29
Trend From Previous Poll: Steady McCain
Average of All Polls: McCain +27.7
Poll Average With Trend: McCain +26.1
State Projection: Safe McCain (+8 or more)
State Actual: Safe McCain (+32)
Oregon (7 EVs)
Most Recent Poll Date: 10-30-08
Most Recent Poll Org.: SUSA
Most Recent Poll Result: Obama +19
Trend From Previous Poll: Upward Obama
Average of All Polls: Obama +15.7
Poll Average With Trend: Obama +15.1
State Projection: Safe Obama (+8 or more)
State Actual: Safe Obama (+12)
Pennsylvania (21 EVs)
Most Recent Poll Date: 11-1-08
Most Recent Poll Org.: PPP (D)
Most Recent Poll Result: Obama +8
Trend From Previous Poll: Upward Obama
Average of All Polls: Obama +8.9
Poll Average With Trend: Obama +8.9
State Projection: Safe Obama (+8 or more)
State Actual: Safe Obama (+11)
Comment: Nailed It!
Rhode Island (4 EVs)
Most Recent Poll Date: 9-21-08
Most Recent Poll Org.: R.I. College
Most Recent Poll Result: Obama +14
Trend From Previous Poll: Steady Obama
Average of All Polls: Obama +17.8
Poll Average With Trend: Obama +23
State Projection: Safe Obama (+8 or more)
State Actual: Safe Obama (+28)
South Carolina (8 EVs)
Most Recent Poll Date: 10-29-08
Most Recent Poll Org.: SUSA
Most Recent Poll Result: McCain +8
Trend From Previous Poll: Downward McCain
Average of All Polls: McCain +11.7
Poll Average With Trend: McCain +11.3
State Projection: Safe McCain (+8 or more)
State Actual: Safe McCain (+9)
South Dakota (3 EVs)
Most Recent Poll Date: 10-30-08
Most Recent Poll Org.: Rasmussen
Most Recent Poll Result: McCain +9
Trend From Previous Poll: Steady McCain
Average of All Polls: McCain +8.9
Poll Average With Trend: McCain +8.6
State Projection: Safe McCain (+8 or more)
State Actual: Safe McCain (+8)
Tennessee (11 EVs)
Most Recent Poll Date: 10-22-08
Most Recent Poll Org.: Research 2000
Most Recent Poll Result: McCain +16
Trend From Previous Poll: Downward McCain
Average of All Polls: McCain +16.1
Poll Average With Trend: McCain +14.7
State Projection: Safe McCain (+8 or more)
State Actual: Safe McCain (+15)
Texas (34 EVs)
Most Recent Poll Date: 10-21-08
Most Recent Poll Org.: Rasmussen
Most Recent Poll Result: McCain +10
Trend From Previous Poll: Downward McCain
Average of All Polls: McCain +12.7
Poll Average With Trend: McCain +12.3
State Projection: Safe McCain (+8 or more)
State Actual: Safe McCain (+12)
Utah (5 EVs)
Most Recent Poll Date: 10-27-08
Most Recent Poll Org.: Dan Johns
Most Recent Poll Result: McCain +25
Trend From Previous Poll: Downward McCain
Average of All Polls: McCain +25.8
Poll Average With Trend: McCain +24.5
State Projection: Safe McCain (+8 or more)
State Actual: Safe McCain (+19)
Virginia (13 EVs) [Swing State]
Most Recent Poll Date: 11-2-08
Most Recent Poll Org.: Rasmussen
Most Recent Poll Result: Obama +4
Trend From Previous Poll: Downward Obama
Average of All Polls: Obama +5.9
Poll Average With Trend: Obama +5.7
State Projection: Lean Obama (+4 to +8)
State Actual: Lean Obama (+5)
Comment: Another Dead On Pick!
Vermont (3 EVs)
Most Recent Poll Date: 10-25-08
Most Recent Poll Org.: Research 2000
Most Recent Poll Result: Obama +21
Trend From Previous Poll: Downward Obama
Average of All Polls: Obama +23.8
Poll Average With Trend: Obama +23.6
State Projection: Safe Obama (+8 or more)
State Actual: Safe Obama (+36)
Washington (11 EVs)
Most Recent Poll Date: 11-1-08
Most Recent Poll Org.: Strategic Vision
Most Recent Poll Result: Obama +15
Trend From Previous Poll: Upward Obama
Average of All Polls: Obama +14.7
Poll Average With Trend: Obama +15.0
State Projection: Safe Obama (+8 or more)
State Actual: Safe Obama (+16)
Wisconsin (10 EVs)
Most Recent Poll Date: 11-1-08
Most Recent Poll Org.: Strategic Vision
Most Recent Poll Result: Obama +13
Trend From Previous Poll: Upward Obama
Average of All Polls: Obama +11.8
Poll Average With Trend: Obama +11.7
State Projection: Safe Obama (+8 or more)
State Actual: Safe Obama (+13)
West Virginia (5 EVs)
Most Recent Poll Date: 10-30-08
Most Recent Poll Org.: PPP (D)
Most Recent Poll Result: McCain +13
Trend From Previous Poll: Upward McCain
Average of All Polls: McCain +8.2
Poll Average With Trend: McCain +8.3
State Projection: Safe McCain (+8 or more)
State Actual: Safe McCain (+13)
Wyoming (3 EVs)
Most Recent Poll Date: 10-28-08
Most Recent Poll Org.: Research 2000
Most Recent Poll Result: McCain +25
Trend From Previous Poll: Upward McCain
Average of All Polls: McCain +23.7
Poll Average With Trend: McCain +24.3
State Projection: Safe McCain (+8 or more)
State Actual: Safe McCain (+32)
And Finally, the summary. Drum Roll Please!
SUMMARY [ 270 Electoral Votes To Win]
The Totals:
Safe Obama = 264 EVs
Safe McCain = 132 EVs
Lean Obama = 27 EVs
Lean McCain = 10 EVs
Toss Up - Lean Obama = 47 EVs
Toss Up - Lean McCain = 18 EVs
Safe + Lean Obama = 291 EVs
Safe + Lean McCain = 142 EVs
Total Obama = 338 EVs
Total McCain = 160 EVs
True Toss Ups Are:
IN, MO, NC & ND = 40 EVs (unassigned)
My Final Pick was: Obama: 352 McCain: 186
The Actual Result is: Obama: 364 McCain: 174
Pretty close, but no cigar. I blew the four toss up states. My coin toss method for these states didn't work. Gotta Get a new coin. Note how dead on Nate Silver's 538 averages were in so many States. His statitical modeling of the polls is truly amazing. And for all of you who guessed an above 350 finish for Obama in my poll, CONGRATS!
Remember: YES WE CAN!