The exit polls released on Nov. 4, 2008, turned out to be close to the real vote this election. The only "swing" states that did not go the way the polls compiled by Pollster.com said they would were Missouri and Indiana, and they were very close within two points.
That makes me wonder why the exit polls were on target this time, but off so much in 2000 and 2004. For instance, in 2004, Kerry was one point ahead in Florida and ended up losing by 5 – a 6-point swing. In New Hampshire, there was a 16-point swing. Can you say Rovian fraud?
Exit polls on Nov. 4, 2008/vs. real voting totals
Obama win projections
Pennsylvania: 52-44%/ 55-44%
Ohio: 49-46%/ 52-47%
Florida: 49-47%/ 51-49%
Virginia: 51-45%/ 52-47%
North Carolina: 48.8-48.4%/ 50-49%
Iowa: 53-41%/ 54-45%
Missouri: 48.5-47.4%/ 49-50%
New Hampshire: 53-41%/ 55-44%
Nevada: 51-44%/ 55-43%
Wisconsin: 53-41%/ 56-43%
New Mexico: 53-44%/ 57-42%
Colorado: 52-44%/ 53-46%
Minnesota: 53-41%/ 54-44%
Michigan: 54-39%/ 57-41%
McCain win projections
Indiana: 47-48%/ 50-49%
Georgia: 46-50%/ 47-52%
West Virginia: 42-54%/ 43-56%
Montana: 46-48%/ 47-50%