When Pres. Lyndon B. Johnson signed the Civil Rights Act of 1964 he mused that he had just "delivered the South to the Republicans" for 50 years. What he delivered was a millstone that in 2008 and beyond will drag the Republicans down and force a disintegration of the party.
One of the things that struck me on Tuesday evening was how well McCain was doing in the deep South. In all but one (Alabama) of the Dixie states that went for McCain, his margin of victory (MoV) was higher than had been polled. (All stats from Pollster.com)
MoV MoV
State Pollster trend end result difference
Ar 10.3 20 9.7 +
La 10.6 18.7 8.1 +
Ga 2.9 6.5 3.6 +
Ky 13 16.4 3.4 +
Tenn 12.3 15.6 3.3 +
Miss 10.5 13.8 3.3 +
SC 8.5 9.4 .9 +
Ala 22.4 21.8 (.6) -
Not only did they increase their percentages, but in doing so, most increased the total number of votes for McCain 2008 as compared to Bush 2004 (these numbers from DailyKos)-
State 2004 Bush 2008 McCain difference % increase
Ar 577,898 632,672 54,774 + 9.4
La 1,102,169 1,147,603 45,434 + 4.1
Ga 1,914,254 2,022,409 108,155 + 5.6
Ky 1,069,439 1,050,599 (18,840) - (1.8)
Tenn 1,383,336 1,487,564 104,228 + 7.5
Miss 684,981 684,475 (506) - (.07)
Sc 937,974 1,015,632 77,658 + 8.3
Ala 1,176,394 1,263,741 87,347 + 7.4
_______
total 458,250 +
Remember, 2004 was the year of the vaunted Bush ground game to get out values voters. And in a year when McCain will receive less total votes than Bush got in 2004 (3.5 million less at this point), he actually increased his overall voter totals in Red southern states by almost half a million. In a year with historic African American turnout voting 96% against, the Republicans were able to extend their vote margins in 6 out of the 8 states.
These states total 72 electoral votes. Here are your core "values" voters, with large African American constituencies. Apparently, white voters came out in huge numbers to vote for McCain. But because they now form the last bastion of Republican thinking and because they over-performed for the Republicans, I believe their influence will be over represented and they will guide their party through the initial stages of any Republican attempt to re-form as a majority party. But because of changing demographics (especially Hispanics voting Democrat) and attitudes, any deep south led strategy will be very difficult to sustain. A regional party will not succeed (as the 2000 and 2004 Northeast and West coast Democratic years in the wilderness can attest). The "new" Republicans may well be most strongly influenced by a white led southern voting bloc that is reacting to racial fear. But much of the rest of the country has apparently moved on, leaving them holding nothing but a losing strategy.
Should Sara Palin succeed in becoming the RNC chair, she may not have the vision or the ability to expand the Republican brand to appeal to post-racial voters. And with the southern base increasing it's influence, any RNC leader who attempts to do this may well be stymied by his own party. So let's hear it for the Southern Strategy- death knell of the Republican party!