Ever since the Know-Nothings joined the Republican party in the late 19th century, the GOP's DNA has been comprised of the following strains:
- Anti-intellectual Nativists
- Robber Baron Capitalists
- Cultural Traditionalists
- Empire Expanders
Of course, there are some partisan Republicans who don't fit neatly into those categories, and there are many people who
occasionally vote Republican for topical reasons. Also, it should be clear that may Republicans might belong to more than one category. However, I believe those four categories represent the primary pillars of the GOP worldview - a worldview that, by definition, is suspicious of change.
While the strains listed above characterize world-view, there is another important grouping that divides Republicans based on self interest: power brokers and useful idiots. The power brokers obviously align well to the "Robber Baron" and "Empire Expander" camps. They are interested in preserving their status as the top predators in the economic food chain while expanding overall economic opportunity for their caste through territorial conquest (although this is always couched in terms of "promoting Democracy"). These power brokers are served by useful idiots which we might as well dub the "Know-Nothings" because its traditional and just so damned accurate. To quote Paul Krugman:
[K]now-nothingism — the insistence that there are simple, brute-force, instant-gratification answers to every problem, and that there’s something effeminate and weak about anyone who suggests otherwise — has become the core of Republican policy and political strategy. The party’s de facto slogan has become: "Real men don’t think things through." (source Wikipedia)
The power brokers could easily use these idiots because maintaining the status quo could be defended with simplistic appeals and expanding the empire is similarly simplistic and manly sounding. Some have argued that the focus on external "threats" from scary foreigners is the main thing keeping the Know-Nothings in line. That certainly contributes, but the main thing is the fear of social evolution at home. Social evolution is too risky because the affect on the power structure is unclear. I may be a shit eating peasant in the current structure, but God forbid I end up in an even worse spot!
So where is the GOP in 2008?
The Know-Nothings have taken over the party. What started with the Southern Strategy has ended with the Palinistas.
How does the GOP avoid extinction?
If Palin becomes the new face of the party (which I highly doubt), then we can be assured the GOP will be in the wilderness for several election cycles. The idea that "American=White Christian" is permanently kaput for demographic reasons. There will never again be a WASP majority in this country no matter how loudly the Know-Nothings angrily shout from their soap boxes. If Palin takes over, the GOP is dead, and I'm not sure what will eventually rise in its place.
However, I think any belief in this scenario is wishful thinking. A far more likely scenario is a cordial alliance of two tribes that I will call the Huckabees and the Jindals. Here are the defining traits:
The Huckabees: A group of "values voters" that are concerned about America losing its moral compass. However, they will eschew intolerance as antithetical to their principals. Traditional wedge issues will be softened by broadening their scope and appeal through redefining key terms. For example, "pro-life" will no longer refer to a simple opposition to a woman's right to choose an abortion, instead it will focus just as much on the quality of life as the quantity of life. To paraphrase an oft used line from Huckabee on the campaign trail "If we care more about unborn children than we do about children living in poverty or without healthcare or educational opportunity, then we have failed." I could also conceivably see a softening on same sex marriages as long as the term "marriage" was forever reserved for heterosexuals. This tribe will be for more populist on economic issues than the traditional GOP. Social programs will not automatically be seen as an evil. This tribe could appeal very much to religious Latinos, a group that is still very much up for grabs.
The Jindals: The Jindals are the more pragmatic offspring of the free market/ small government/anti-regulation conservatives typified by Grover Norquist. They will not talk about eliminating government, but rather about "right sizing" or even "smart sizing." They will advocate "smart regulation" over "no regulation." They will still be unapologetic supply siders in the macro sense, but they won't balk at the idea of progressive taxation or a little help for main street now and then.
What does this mean for Democrats?
I'm not really sure.
Personally, I think the Huckabees are the bigger short term threat, but I'm more concerned about the Jindals in the long run. I am a small government libertarianish Democrat, so I know how appealing and practical the supply side model of reality can be -- unfortunately, it does not bear up to scrutiny. The whole idea of unlimited economic growth is so fundamentally flawed that I want it to be repudiated forever. We can't afford for the entire globe to engage in 20th century American style capitalism. Capitalism needs to evolve as well, and this won't happen as long as there are still credible politicians and pundits out there who still believe in free market fairies or the wizards of Wall Street.
Eh, just some mental flatus for a lazy afternoon.