Some things I can take away from the 2008 elections:
I am lousy at predictions. I did call the 2-1 electoral vote in favor of Obama. But I overestimated the effect on the downticket races. Depending on results still yet to be announced, the Dems will be a couple seats short of 60 in the Senate, and between 15-20 seats shy of a triple-digit majority in the House. What does this tell us?
Mostly that the election was more of a repudiation of Bush than of "conservatism". Hard core right darlings like Michelle Bachman in Minnesota, John Shadegg in Arizona, Jean Schmidt in Ohio and Mitch McConnell in Kentucky won handily. Gay marriage bans did also, despite both liberal and progressive pushes against them.
That being said, no incumbent Democrats lost seats in this election - only Republicans. The same was true for 2006. Once is a fluke. Twice is a trend. But it is slow going. There appears to be a built-in resistance to single-party dominance in this country, and that's probably holding the Dems from 60 senate seats.
Is that a bad thing? Not for conservatives, yes for progressives. Being that it now takes 60 votes to get any legislation enacted in this country, President Obama would be blocked from enacting his most ambitious programs. He would have to reach across the aisle and recruit support from the few moderates left on that side. Certain things may pass, but not as advertised, and not without serious compromise.
Rush Limbaugh likes to say the word "center" is not in Obama's dictionary (I for one am glad we will have a President who owns a dictionary). But the center is where the rubber meets the road. That's how he won, in my opinion- by appealing to moderates and Republicans who were dissatisfied with 8 years under Bush. His message was clear - end the war in Iraq, invest in clean energy and education, make health care easier to obtain, and take care of the middle class - and that resonated with the majority of the electorate.
To John McCain: to thine own self be true. It broke my heart to watch one of my heroes get his hands dirty, or try to rebrand himself as a conservative, or go out on one political limb after another. But it was the Sarah Palin selection that cost him the election in the eyes of many on the Right, as well as the Middle. In the end, only about 30-some percent of voters thought she had the right stuff to be President, which is right around Bush's approval ratings. I think we're seeing the same demographic there, the die-hard Republicans. The ones who would cut off their hand before they let it vote Democratic.
But that demo can't put somebody in the White House alone. It takes 51% (give or take, apologies to Al Gore) so you need moderates and probably a few crossovers to win anymore. You do that by making your appeal broad, staying on message, and some resentment towards the current administration doesn't hurt either. Oh and money. Lots and lots of money.
An Obama administration has 4 years to put it together and keep it together. This is not just his only chance, it is the Democratic Party's only chance. An Obama presidency which fails to deliver on the promise of change will lose a generation of disillusioned new voters and put the government back into Republican hands for another 8-12 years. Oops, everyone on the right forget I just said that.
Lastly, I was happy to see the sun rise this morning. Today is a new day in America, and millions of people have had a dream realized. Millions more have hope. I'm amazed that I live in a country where a black guy with a funny name will be the next President, and I anxiously await the first 100 days.