Two years ago, Tom Schaller came up in a couple of online discussions:
Winning without the South
Worth fighting for
More Schaller
Q&A w/Schaller
Earlier in the campaign he said Obama couldn't win in the South. Even going so far as to say, "Mr. Obama can write off Georgia and North Carolina..."
Even after the election he held this:
He fared poorly with Southern whites, winning only 1 in 3 of them. But Obama and the Democratic Party don't appear to need those voters to hold power in Washington, said Thomas Schaller
I dont' care how you explain it, a national candidate should never 'write off' any state, especially not one he ends up WINNING!
I agree more with Howard Dean:
http://www.boston.com/...
"I think what it says is if you go to states like North Carolina and Nevada and Virginia and Colorado, you can win; but you've got to go,"
There are some basic problems I have with Schaller's strategy:
- Lots of effort is not transferrable from one state to another - most NC volunteers can't move to PA for the election.
- Down-ticket impact. Larry Kissell nearly beat Robin 'liberals hate real Americans' Hayes in 2006, and did beat him in 2008. Without the Democratic party's effort in NC, he may not have won.
- Investments often end up paying for themselves. Obama put monty into NC, but he also got money out (mine included).
- More battleground states means stretching your opponent.
- Strengthening the party as a national party, and conversely, you can turn your opposition into regionally focused defensive party.
In Obama's victory speech he directly speaks to those who didn't vote for him -
As Lincoln said to a nation far more divided than ours, We are not enemies, but friends...though passion may have strained it must not break our bonds of affection. And to those Americans whose support I have yet to earn - I may not have won your vote, but I hear your voices, I need your help, and I will be your President too.
Obama didn't change who he was to pander to these voters, but he showed he wanted their votes, and that he would work to get them.
Obama won many votes in NC's urban counties "But the urban counties tell only part of the story."
http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot....
This mirrors Obama's success nationally - GOTV in your areas of strength, but also gain ground everywhere else.
My main complaint with Schaller's idea is personal. It says to me, as a liberal in NC, that I'm not important in the strategy. I feel like I can help, I WANT to help, but I would have been turned off if I felt a candidate had 'written me off'.